2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreM-OH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Jake Julien punt for 46 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:55: Timeout EASTRN MICHIGAN, clock 06:55 — M-OH win probability +3.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:11: Chad Ryland 47 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +1.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 8:07: Chad Ryland 33 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +2.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 5:40: Graham Nicholson 31 yd FG GOOD — EMU win probability +1.8 pts (now 27%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- FG · Q4 6:29: Graham Nicholson 44 yd FG GOOD — EMU win probability +1.7 pts (now 12%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10M-OH made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 8:47M-OH 4th & 9 at EMU 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.8% before the snapGo for it53.7%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call53.8%54% to makePunt53.6%−0.2average punt
- Q1 5:48EMU 4th & 18 at EMU 32, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snapGo for it44.8%−0.812% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.6%average punt
- Q1 2:05M-OH 4th & 7 at EMU 21, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.9% before the snapGo for it53.6%−0.235% to convertField goalTheir call53.8%74% to makePunt51.6%−2.2average punt
- Q1 0:33EMU 4th & 3 at EMU 32, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snapGo for it44.2%−0.252% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.4%average punt
- Q2 10:54M-OH 4th & 7 at EMU 27, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.2% before the snapGo for it57.8%−0.236% to convertField goalTheir call58.0%62% to makePunt54.7%−3.3average punt
- Q2 4:32M-OH 4th & 13 at M-OH 43, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snapGo for it62.0%−1.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.2%average punt
- Q2 2:22EMU 4th & 18 at EMU 12, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snapGo for it31.4%−2.712% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.1%average punt
- Q2 0:11EMU 4th & 7 at M-OH 29, down 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.6% before the snapGo for it34.2%−1.337% to convertField goalTheir call35.6%58% to makePunt31.8%−3.8average punt
- Q3 13:33M-OH 4th & 15 at M-OH 20, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snapGo for it63.4%−2.616% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.9%average punt
- Q3 8:07EMU 4th & 15 at M-OH 15, down 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.3% before the snapGo for it26.7%−3.015% to convertField goalTheir call29.7%83% to makePunt20.8%−8.9average punt
- Q3 5:40M-OH 4th & 8 at EMU 13, up 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.2% before the snapGo for it69.9%−1.030% to convertField goalTheir call70.8%85% to makePunt62.3%−8.6average punt
- Q3 2:26EMU 4th & 17 at EMU 32, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snapGo for it23.7%−4.814% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.5%average punt
- Q4 14:50M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 47, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snapGo for it76.2%−0.537% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.8%average punt
- Q4 9:38EMU 4th & 15 at M-OH 43, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snapGo for it16.4%−1.917% to convertField goal17.2%−1.128% to makePuntTheir call18.3%average punt
- Q4 6:29M-OH 4th & 13 at EMU 26, up 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snapGo for it83.2%−2.120% to convertField goalTheir call85.4%64% to makePunt78.3%−7.1average punt
- Q4 4:50EMU 4th & 5 at EMU 30, down 9Close callPunted · 12.1% before the snapGo for it11.5%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.3%−0.2average punt
- Q4 3:56M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 23, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snapGo for it87.1%−1.535% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.6%average punt
- Q4 2:51EMU 4th & 8 at EMU 33, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snapGo for it7.9%−0.933% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.8%average punt
- Q4 1:50M-OH 4th & 5 at EMU 42, up 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.9%42% to convertField goal93.2%−0.730% to makePunt93.3%−0.6average punt
- Q4 0:00EMU 4th & 2 at midfield, down 9Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 6.7% before the snapGo for it6.5%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.2%−1.3average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartEMUDrive 1INT7 plays · 51 yds · 2:4643% → 44%
Q1 14:09
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
42.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for no gain to the EMich 31Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
42.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Samson Evans for 12 yds to the EMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+33
43.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 33 yds to the MiaOh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2FG10 plays · 56 yds · 3:1057% → 56%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
43.4%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 11 yds to the MiaOh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+8
43.7%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 8 yds to the MiaOh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
43.5%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 20 yds to the EMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 7 yds · 2:4844% → 43%
Q1 8:01
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
43.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 15 yds to the EMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
44.3%
Ben Bryant sacked by Austin Ertl for a loss of 7 yards to the EMich 33Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+4
43.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Samson Evans for 4 yds to the EMich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4FG10 plays · 52 yds · 3:3056% → 59%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
43.4%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 10 yds to the EMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2842% → 41%
Q1 0:33
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
41.2%
Jake Julien punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jalen Walker at the MiaOh 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6FG12 plays · 57 yds · 4:3358% → 62%
EMUDrive 7TD10 plays · 73 yds · 3:4637% → 38%
Q2 10:06
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+20
37.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 20 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
39.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 14 yds to the MiaOh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+16
37.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryson Cannon for 16 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 18 yds · 2:1565% → 65%
Q2 5:58
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+19
35.3%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 19 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
32.8%
(05:49) PENALTY MIA False Start (Feth,Rusty) 5 yards from MIA46 to MIA41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 15
OWN 41
-5
33.7%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Vaughan,Sam) 5 yards from MIA41 to MIA36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
34.8%
Dom Dzioban punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dylan Drummond at the EMich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 1:5332% → 29%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
31.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 6 yds to the EMich 14Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-6
29.9%
Ben Bryant sacked by Kameron Butler for a loss of 6 yards to the EMich 12Similar
Q2 2:22
4TH & 18
OWN 12
0
29.2%
Jake Julien punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jalen Walker at the MiaOh 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10FUMBLE2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0669% → 67%
EMUDrive 11FG10 plays · 20 yds · 1:5932% → 37%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
32.3%
(02:10) Bryant,Ben pass complete to Drummond,Dylan for 24 yards to the MIA25, out of bounds PENALTY EMU Illegal Formation 5 yards from MIA49 to EMU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+3
32.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Darius Boone Jr. for 3 yds to the EMich 49Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+19
30.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 19 yds to the MiaOh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+3
31.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 3 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12Uncategorized3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2268% → 66%
Q3 14:17
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-6
33.3%
AJ Mayer sacked by Mikey Haney for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaOh 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14FG15 plays · 57 yds · 5:1834% → 29%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
34.0%
Ben Bryant sacked by Ben Kimpler for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 25Similar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
34.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 12 yds to the MiaOh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
35.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 7 yds to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+15
32.4%
PENALTY MIA UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Butler,Kameron) 15 yards from MIA40 to MIA25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
35.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 6 yds to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+10
35.6%
PENALTY MIA UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Pace Jr.,Ivan) 10 yards from MIA19 to MIA09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
-2
31.3%
Ben Bryant sacked by Lonnie Phelps for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15FG10 plays · 62 yds · 2:1472% → 73%
EMUDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 4 yds · 3:0225% → 21%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
24.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 11 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 2
OWN 47
-12
24.9%
Ben Bryant sacked by Dominique Robinson for a loss of 12 yards to the EMich 35Similar
Q3 2:26
4TH & 17
OWN 32
+2
20.9%
Jake Julien punt for 45 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 2 yds to the MiaOh 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 35 yds · 2:2975% → 78%
EMUDrive 18PUNT11 plays · 41 yds · 4:5619% → 14%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
18.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to I'Shawn Stewart for 11 yds to the EMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+22
18.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Darius Boone Jr. for 22 yds to the EMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+2
16.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Samson Evans for 2 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19FG10 plays · 54 yds · 3:0283% → 88%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+43
17.2%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 43 yds to the EASTMICH 37 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+9
11.6%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 9 yds to the EMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-6
10.5%
AJ Mayer sacked by Turan Rush for a loss of 6 yards to the EMich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3111% → 7%
M-OHDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5490% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:595% → 3%
M-OHDrive 23DOWNS8 plays · 34 yds · 0:5692% → 95%
Q4 2:37
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+29
9.1%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 14 yds to the EMich 38 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (Turan Rush) to the EMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
6.1%
Mayer,AJ pass incomplete broken up by Rush,Turan QB hurried by Rush,Turan PENALTY MIA Holding 10 yards from EMU47 to MIA43. NO PLAY. The previous play is under review. The ruling on the field has been overturned. The pass was incomplete (OVERTURNED PLAY: (02:33) #10 A.Mayer sacked for loss of 13 yards to the MIA40 (#99 T.Rush), fumble by #10 A.Mayer recovered by EMU #27 D.Carter at MIA40 #27 D.Carter return 3 yards to the MIA37, End Of Play PENALTY MIA Holding declined).Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 20
OWN 43
+15
6.7%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 15 yds to the EMich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:443% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+97.7
TD · Q2 6:55
Timeout EASTRN MICHIGAN, clock 06:55
-3.1
FG · Q3 8:07
Chad Ryland 33 yd FG GOOD
-2.7