Miami (OH)

Profile vs. FBS, 2018

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1349th
  Defense+0.1246th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense39.9%21st
  Defense41.8%57th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3491st
  Defense+1.2053rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0851st
  Defense+0.1036th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2054th
  Defense+0.1553rd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense44.6%21st
  Defense47.3%50th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.0%40th
  Defense30.6%69th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.7730th
  Defense2.9344th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense21.3%26th
  Defense18.7%40th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.5%69th
  Defense16.0%47th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2018

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Miami (OH) allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   MRSH
2. L
   CIN
3. L
   MINN
4. W
   BGSU
5. L
   WMU
6. W
   AKR
7. W
   KENT
8. L
   ARMY
9. L
   BUF
10. W
    OHIO
11. W
    NIU
12. W
    BALL

Bars above the line: better than expected for Miami (OH).

Players, 2018

1. Gus RaglandQB428 plays · +0.244 pts/play · 25th of 225 QBs
   1.95WAR1.19 to 2.71
2. Alonzo SmithRB149 plays · +0.155 pts/play · 73rd of 351 RBs
   0.43WAR0.30 to 0.54
3. Kenny YoungRB108 plays · +0.142 pts/play · 149th of 351 RBs
   0.29WAR0.19 to 0.38
4. Jack SorensonWR66 plays · +0.155 pts/play · 45th of 434 WRs
   0.19WAR0.10 to 0.28
5. Maurice ThomasRB64 plays · +0.128 pts/play · 243rd of 351 RBs
   0.15WAR0.11 to 0.20
6. Kyle KramerP54 plays · +0.081 pts/play · 37th of 91 punters
   0.08WAR0.02 to 0.14
7. Luke MayockWR42 plays · +0.100 pts/play · 242nd of 434 WRs
   0.08WAR0.03 to 0.13
8. Sam SlomanPK10 plays · +0.353 pts/play · 93rd of 112 kickers
   0.07WAR0.04 to 0.09

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Miami (OH)'s players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2018

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  42142190th of 130Roster talent: 421, 90th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  12812897th of 130Recruiting: 128, 97th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  65%65%63rd of 129Returning production: 65%, 63rd of 129 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −0.7−0.779th of 130SP+ rating: −0.7, 79th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2018

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Miami (OH)'s own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.11 of the 0.18 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at NIUQ4 5:31 4th & 1 at NIU 49, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−4.1 pts
2. vs OHIOQ4 0:30 4th & 6 at OHIO 43, up 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.8 pts
3. at BUFQ4 13:23 4th & 2 at M-OH 28, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−2.2 pts
4. at NIUQ4 9:29 4th & 2 at NIU 49, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
5. at NIUQ2 1:02 4th & 8 at NIU 39, up 3Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.9 pts
6. at ARMYQ4 6:17 4th & 9 at ARMY 15, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.9 pts
7. vs OHIOQ3 0:44 4th & 2 at M-OH 37, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
8. at MINNQ3 12:56 4th & 2 at M-OH 43, down 16Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2018

46th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Miami (OH)'s chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   MRSH
2. L

   CIN
3. L

   MINN
4. W

   BGSU
5. L

   WMU
6. W

   AKR
7. W

   KENT
8. L

   ARMY
9. L

   BUF
10. W

    OHIO
11. W

    NIU
12. W

    BALL

What moved it, 2018

Every game starts at Miami (OH)'s pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.25
• Possession & field position−0.06
• Clock−0.17
• Timeouts+0.15
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.43

Game by game

• MRSHL 28-35 vs MRSH53% → 4%Before kickoff +3 · On the field −49: Scoreboard −50, Clock −3
• CINL 0-21 vs CIN50% → 0%Before kickoff 0 · On the field −50: Scoreboard −51, Clock −3
• MINNL 3-26 at MINN17% → 0%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −21
• BGSUW 38-23 at BGSU66% → 97%Before kickoff +16 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +42, Clock +1
• WMUL 39-40 vs WMU39% → 11%Before kickoff −11 · On the field −28: Scoreboard −38, Clock −3
• AKRW 41-17 at AKR40% → 99%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +60: Scoreboard +58, Clock +1
• KENTW 31-6 vs KENT75% → 100%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts −2
• ARMYL 30-31 at ARMY33% → 19%Before kickoff −17 · On the field −14: Timeouts +16, Clock −15
• BUFL 42-51 at BUF31% → 4%Before kickoff −19 · On the field −28: Scoreboard −30, Timeouts −2
• OHIOW 30-28 vs OHIO37% → 83%Before kickoff −13 · On the field +46: Scoreboard +22, Timeouts +2
• NIUW 13-7 at NIU33% → 95%Before kickoff −17 · On the field +62: Scoreboard +53, Clock +3
• BALLW 42-21 vs BALL80% → 100%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +24

Points of win probability, from Miami (OH)'s side.

Closest call

MASS 20-23 M-OH (2024) - Miami (OH) dropped to a 6.6% win probability before pulling it out.