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M-OH

Miami (OH) 13 at Northern Illinois 7

NIU
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 14, 2018 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:34 · Kyle Kramer punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Pregame prior+3.5Home team on offense−13.1Garbage-time factor−5.3Score differential−3.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:01: Marcus Jones 29 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick) — NIU win probability +13.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:21: Ja'don Rucker-Furlow 28 Yd Interception Return (Samuel Sloman Kick) — M-OH win probability +19.2 pts (now 54%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:06: Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jack Sorenson — M-OH win probability +8.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:47: Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the NoIll 49 — M-OH win probability +17.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:49: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 25 — M-OH win probability +8.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11M-OH made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 12:03NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:58M-OH 4th & 6 at NIU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    33.9%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:32NIU 4th & 7 at M-OH 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    65.7%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:22M-OH 4th & 12 at M-OH 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:13NIU 4th & 15 at M-OH 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    64.3%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:40M-OH 4th & 6 at NIU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:02M-OH 4th & 8 at NIU 39, up 3
    Close callPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    45.1%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:33M-OH 4th & 12 at M-OH 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−2.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:32M-OH 4th & 6 at NIU 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    25.5%−6.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:14NIU 4th & 13 at M-OH 46, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−2.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    43.0%−2.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:22M-OH 4th & 11 at M-OH 29, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−2.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:25NIU 4th & 20 at NIU 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−5.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:01M-OH 4th & 16 at M-OH 47, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−4.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:10NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 17, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−3.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:34M-OH 4th & 12 at M-OH 41, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−3.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:46NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 17, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−2.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:29M-OH 4th & 2 at NIU 49, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%−1.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:11NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 27, down 6
    Close callPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:31M-OH 4th & 1 at NIU 49, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.1 ptsPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%−4.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:17NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.3%−7.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:55NIU 4th & 2 at midfield, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.6%−8.9
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:28M-OH 4th & 8 at NIU 48, up 6
    Close callPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%−0.2
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:57NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.5%−3.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1M-OH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 11:01NIU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:21M-OH Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:4967% → 66%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
66.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 4 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
66.7%
Marcus Childers run for 7 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
66.7%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+12
66.7%
Marcus Childers run for 12 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
66.8%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 46Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+2
66.7%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
66.5%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q1 12:03
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
66.4%
Matt Ference punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:3234% → 34%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
66.4%
Alonzo Smith run for no gain to the MiaOh 16Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+22
66.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Luke Mayock for 22 yds to the MiaOh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
66.1%
Alonzo Smith run for no gain to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
66.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Nate Becker for 5 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+7
65.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
50
+2
65.6%
Kenny Young run for 2 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+1
65.5%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the NoIll 47Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+1
65.4%
Gus Ragland run for 1 yd to the NoIll 46Similar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
65.7%
Kyle Kramer punt for 40 yds, downed at the NoIll 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:5966% → 66%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
65.7%
Marcus Jones run for 6 yds to the NoIll 12Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+12
65.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 12 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
65.8%
Tre Harbison run for 8 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+23
66.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 23 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
66.6%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+1
66.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 1 yd to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+2
66.4%
Marcus Jones run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 2
OPP 37
-5
65.9%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
65.6%
Matt Ference punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:5535% → 35%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
65.4%
Alonzo Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 8Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+29
65.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 14 yds to the MiaOh 22 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
64.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Maurice Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 14
OWN 33
-2
64.6%
Alonzo Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+4
65.0%
Kenny Young run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 35Similar
Q1 1:22
4TH & 12
OWN 35
+3
65.1%
Kyle Kramer punt for 48 yds , Cole Tucker returns for 3 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:5865% → 64%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
65.2%
Tre Harbison run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 19Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+16
65.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 16 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
65.4%
Marcus Childers run for 9 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+22
66.5%
Tre Harbison run for 22 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
66.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 4 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
66.9%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 5
OPP 29
-10
66.4%
Childers, Marcus rush for 18 yards to the MIAMIOH11, PENALTY NORTHERNIL holding 10 yards to the MIAMIOH39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 15
OPP 39
0
65.1%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Marcus JonesSimilar
Q2 13:13
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
64.1%
Matt Ference punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Jack Sorenson at the MiaOh 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6FG
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:2136% → 44%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
63.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 10 yds to the MiaOh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
63.6%
Alonzo Smith run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 2
OWN 31
0
62.6%
Alonzo Smith run for no gain to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+3
63.2%
Gus Ragland run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
62.9%
Kenny Young run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+13
62.6%
Maurice Thomas run for 13 yds to the MiaOh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+23
61.0%
Kenny Young run for 23 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
60.0%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the NoIll 27Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+2
59.9%
Maurice Thomas run for 2 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+9
59.5%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 9 yds to the NoIll 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
58.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Alonzo Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 17Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+5
57.3%
Jaylon Bester run for 5 yds to the NoIll 12Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
57.7%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Luke MayockSimilar
Q2 5:40
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+30
56.5%
Samuel Sloman 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7FUMBLE
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:5058% → 55%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.6%
Marcus Jones run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
57.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Ty Harmston for 1 yd to the NoIll 30Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
56.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 7 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
58.0%
Marcus Jones run for no gain to the NoIll 37Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
57.4%
Marcus Jones run for 4 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-10
58.1%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NoIll 31Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+25
54.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Ty Harmston for 25 yds Ty Harmston fumbled, recovered by MiaOhSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3847% → 47%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
53.5%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
52.9%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
51.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Maurice Thomas for no gain to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-1
51.0%
Gus Ragland run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 39Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
52.7%
Kyle Kramer punt for 33 yds, downed at the NoIll 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9END OF HALF
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:3454% → 55%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
54.1%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the NoIll 8Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+7
54.1%
Marcus Childers run for 7 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+4
54.4%
Marcus Childers run for 4 yds to the NoIll 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
55.3%
Marcus Childers run for 6 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:5247% → 44%
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
52.7%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+2
52.8%
Gus Ragland run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-5
53.2%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 12
OWN 37
0
54.9%
Kenny Young run for no gain to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q3 12:33
4TH & 12
OWN 37
0
55.8%
Kyle Kramer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:2355% → 74%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
54.7%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
54.4%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+10
52.9%
Childers, Marcus pass incomplete to Robinson, Dennis, PENALTY MIAMIOH holding 10 yards to the NORTHERNIL33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHERNIL.Similar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+37
55.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 37 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
59.7%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+29
73.6%
Marcus Jones 29 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 3:1631% → 37%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
68.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 15 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
66.8%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+11
67.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 11 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
65.2%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Kenny YoungSimilar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
65.9%
Alonzo Smith run for 11 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
65.2%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Andrew HomerSimilar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+11
65.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 11 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
63.7%
Jaylon Bester run for 1 yd to the NoIll 24Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+3
63.5%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
64.9%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Kenny YoungSimilar
Q3 7:32
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
63.5%
Samuel Sloman 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0766% → 47%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.6%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+28
46.5%
Ja'don Rucker-Furlow 28 Yd Interception Return (Samuel Sloman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:5847% → 44%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
46.7%
Tre Harbison run for 32 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
50.2%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
50.0%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Jordan NettlesSimilar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
49.2%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 8
OPP 41
-5
45.3%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
43.8%
Matt Ference punt for 26 yds, fair catch by AJ Mayer at the MiaOh 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5058% → 57%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
42.4%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
41.2%
Alonzo Smith run for no gain to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
41.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Quentin Hardy for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
41.5%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Luke MayockSimilar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
42.8%
Kyle Kramer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:4944% → 39%
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
43.9%
Harbison, Tre rush for 1 yard to the NORTHERNIL31, PENALTY NORTHERNIL holding 10 yards to the NORTHERNIL20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 20
OWN 20
-2
43.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 18Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 22
OWN 18
-3
42.5%
Marcus Childers sacked by Dean Lemon for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 15Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 25
OWN 15
+5
40.6%
Marcus Childers run for 5 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 20
OWN 20
0
39.4%
Matt Ference punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jack Sorenson at the MiaOh 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:1665% → 63%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
35.3%
Gus Ragland run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+9
33.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 9 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
32.6%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Andrew HomerSimilar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
32.6%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-6
32.9%
Gus Ragland sacked by Josh Corcoran for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaOh 47 Gus Ragland fumbled, recovered by MiaOhSimilar
Q3 0:01
4TH & 16
OWN 47
0
37.1%
Kyle Kramer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4141% → 37%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
40.6%
Marcus Childers run for 2 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
40.5%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
38.4%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
37.4%
Matt Ference punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jack Sorenson at the MiaOh 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2568% → 66%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
31.9%
Kenny Young run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 13
OWN 40
0
32.7%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+1
33.5%
Gus Ragland run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 12
OWN 41
0
34.0%
Kyle Kramer punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3939% → 36%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
39.3%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
39.1%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
37.0%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Dennis RobinsonSimilar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
35.6%
Matt Ference punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0672% → 73%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
28.5%
Kenny Young run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+1
27.9%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+4
26.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 4 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
27.5%
Kyle Kramer punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:0334% → 28%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
34.4%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the NoIll 18Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+5
34.2%
Jordan Nettles run for 5 yds to the NoIll 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
34.3%
Jordan Nettles run for 2 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+2
32.2%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
30.6%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q4 7:11
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
28.1%
Matt Ference punt for 31 yds, downed at the MiaOh 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3580% → 80%
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
19.9%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
20.2%
Alonzo Smith run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 2
50
+1
18.5%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
20.4%
Kyle Kramer punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 2:3028% → 28%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+18
28.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 18 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
29.3%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 35 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NoIll 25Similar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 16
OWN 25
0
27.5%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 16
OWN 25
+7
26.9%
Tre Harbison run for 7 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+8
25.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 8 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+2
27.3%
Marcus Childers run for 2 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
30.6%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
31.3%
Marcus Childers run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 2
50
0
30.8%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 2
50
0
28.1%
Jauan Wesley pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:1989% → 88%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
50
+1
11.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+1
10.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the NoIll 48Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
10.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Nate Becker for no gain to the NoIll 48Similar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
11.7%
Kyle Kramer punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2720% → 14%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
19.8%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
18.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 4 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
17.2%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
14.4%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:0894% → 95%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
5.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 25Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 11
OPP 25
-1
4.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 26Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 12
OPP 26
-1
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:21
Ja'don Rucker-Furlow 28 Yd Interception Return (Samuel Sloman Kick)
-19.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:47
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the NoIll 49
-17.1
TD · Q3 11:01
Marcus Jones 29 Yd Run (Andrew Gantz Kick)
+13.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com