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CIN

Cincinnati 21 at Miami (OH) 0

M-OH
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Paul Brown Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:20 · Kyle Kramer punt for 56 yds, downed at the Cincy 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime per score still needed
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 76Home team on offense−7.0Score differential−2.2Garbage-time factor−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Time per score still needed+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:33: Michael Warren II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +3.2 pts (now 54%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:40: Michael Warren II run for 14 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST down — CIN win probability +5.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:18: Michael Warren II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +20.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:13: Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 10 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST down — M-OH win probability +3.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:13: Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 25 — CIN win probability +5.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 7 of 11CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:18CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:07M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:27M-OH 4th & 5 at CIN 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    52.9%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:22CIN 4th & 13 at M-OH 33, up 7
    Close callPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    50.7%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:54M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 23, down 7
    Close callPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:22CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 27, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:27M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:41CIN 4th & 18 at CIN 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−3.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:20M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:54CIN 4th & 13 at CIN 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−2.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:27M-OH 4th & 20 at CIN 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−2.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    41.2%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:47CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 28, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:56M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00CIN 4th & 16 at CIN 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−2.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:13M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 39, down 14
    Close callPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:13CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:14M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:16M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 31, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 5:33CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 13:18CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 3:21CIN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
49.9%
MIAMI OH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+21
49.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 21 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
49.9%
Alonzo Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+6
49.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 6 yds to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
49.9%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete, broken up by Cortez BroughtonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
49.9%
Kyle Kramer punt for 44 yds , Aulden Knight returns for no gain to the Cincy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
50.3%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Cincy 11Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+14
50.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 14 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
50.2%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
50.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 10 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
50.2%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the Cincy 34Similar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+7
50.3%
James Smith punt for 46 yds , Kenny Young returns for 7 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
50.9%
Gus Ragland run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 3
OWN 34
-4
51.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
50.6%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James GardnerSimilar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
50.4%
Kyle Kramer punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:0450% → 53%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
50.5%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+13
50.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
50
+2
50.1%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+39
50.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 39 yds to the MiaOh 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
49.9%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 6Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
49.9%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 2Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
46.5%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
47.4%
CINCINNATI Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Cincy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
47.6%
Alonzo Smith run for no gain to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+17
47.5%
Gus Ragland run for 2 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Marquise Copeland) to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
48.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 4 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
48.6%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+9
48.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 9 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
48.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 38Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+5
48.4%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+2
48.5%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 2 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+2
48.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 2 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 3:5354% → 55%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
45.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 7 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+10
45.3%
Michael Warren II run for 10 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
44.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 41Similar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+17
45.7%
Desmond Ridder run for 17 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
44.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+12
44.3%
Desmond Ridder run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
44.0%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
44.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+1
44.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 23Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 23
-10
44.9%
MOORE, Hayden rush up middle for 17 yards to the MIAMI6 (RAYMOND, Zed), PENALTY CIN holding (TROUT, Kyle) 10 yards to the MIAMI33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:22
4TH & 13
OPP 33
0
45.2%
James Smith punt for 28 yds, downed at the MiaOh 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:2246% → 44%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
45.6%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 7 Kenny Young fumbled, forced by Cortez Broughton, recovered by MiaOh Kenny Young , return for no gain to the MiaOh 7Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+8
45.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Nate Becker for 8 yds to the MiaOh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
45.7%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James Gardner, broken up by Tyrell GilbertSimilar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
44.9%
Davion Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+3
44.4%
Gus Ragland run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 23Similar
Q2 10:54
4TH & 2
OWN 23
-4
44.2%
Kyle Kramer punt for 55 yds , Aulden Knight returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
43.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+3
43.6%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+4
43.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 4 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q2 9:22
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
43.9%
James Smith punt for 44 yds, downed at the MiaOh 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
43.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+2
42.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 2 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+9
42.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 9 yds to the MiaOh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
43.6%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James GardnerSimilar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
43.5%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
42.9%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:27
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
42.2%
Kyle Kramer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Aulden Knight at the Cincy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
41.3%
Michael Warren II run for 6 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 4
OWN 25
-7
40.4%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 9 Desmond Ridder fumbled, recovered by Cincy Desmond RidderSimilar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 20
OWN 9
+2
42.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 18
OWN 11
0
43.2%
James Smith punt for 42 yds , Kenny Young returns for no gain to the MiaOh 11 MIAMI OH Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the MiaOh 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:1742% → 40%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
41.8%
Alonzo Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+2
40.8%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 35Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+8
40.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 8 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
39.5%
Kyle Kramer punt for 56 yds, downed at the Cincy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
37.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Cincy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0063% → 60%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
36.7%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
36.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 6
OWN 37
-2
36.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 8
OWN 35
-5
39.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 13
OWN 30
0
39.6%
James Smith punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kenny Young at the MiaOh 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 41 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+24
38.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 24 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
41.4%
Maurice Thomas run for 8 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 2
OPP 46
0
42.6%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James Gardner, broken up by Tyrell GilbertSimilar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+6
42.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Nate Becker for 6 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
42.6%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James Gardner, broken up by Tyrell GilbertSimilar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
42.4%
Maurice Thomas run for 9 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+4
42.5%
Maurice Thomas run for 4 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
43.9%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James GardnerSimilar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
43.8%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 10
OPP 27
-15
42.0%
RAGLAND, Gus pass incomplete to GARDNER, James (YOUNG, Perry), PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (GARDNER, James) 15 yards to the CIN42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 25
OPP 42
+5
39.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 5 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 20
OPP 37
0
37.8%
Kyle Kramer punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
35.9%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Cincy 21Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
36.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 7 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
35.3%
Desmond Ridder run for no gain to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
36.9%
James Smith punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Kenny Young at the MiaOh 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0036% → 37%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
36.4%
Maurice Thomas run for no gain to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
36.3%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Luke Mayock for 7 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+14
36.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 14 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
39.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+2
39.7%
Gus Ragland run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
39.1%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Luke Mayock, broken up by Coby BryantSimilar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
37.4%
Kyle Kramer punt for 36 yds , Aulden Knight returns for no gain to the Cincy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
12 plays · 31 yds · 4:4068% → 70%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
32.2%
Michael Warren II run for 14 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
31.3%
Michael Warren II run for 6 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
30.3%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+3
29.9%
Tavion Thomas run for 3 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
29.6%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
29.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+4
29.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 4 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
29.0%
WARREN, Michael rush up middle for 3 yards to the MIAMI44 (ALLEN, Josh), PENALTY CIN holding (JAMES, Morgan) 10 yards to the CIN43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+3
27.4%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 46
+1
28.0%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Cincy 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 47
0
28.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 47
0
29.9%
James Smith punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 6 , Kenny Young returns for no gain to the MiaOh 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+23
29.2%
Gus Ragland pass intercepted Darrick Forrest return for 23 yds to the MiaOh 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 13:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.2%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
14.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 10 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
14.5%
Kenny Young run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 2
OWN 42
-3
15.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
15.0%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:13
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+38
14.5%
Kyle Kramer punt for 22 yds, downed at the MIAMIOH 39 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive holding (Tyrell Gilbert) to the Cincy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
8.6%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
8.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete, broken up by Doug CostinSimilar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
9.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
9.4%
James Smith punt for 63 yds, downed at the MiaOh 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
10.2%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
10.1%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
9.9%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 10
OWN 12
+1
9.9%
Kyle Kramer punt for 37 yds , Aulden Knight returns for 1 yd to the Cincy 13 CINCINNATI Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Cincy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23TD
16 plays · 58 yds · 6:2493% → 99%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
6.8%
Michael Warren II run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
6.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+1
6.6%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+7
6.9%
Michael Warren II run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
6.6%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+4
6.6%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+15
4.6%
RIDDER, Desmond pass incomplete, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (DANIELS, D.) 15 yards to the MIAMI19, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
4.4%
Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+2
4.4%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 11Similar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+2
4.5%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
4.4%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the MiaOh 9Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
2.6%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the MiaOh 9Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
0.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 9 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
0.4%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Luke MayockSimilar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+6
0.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Alonzo Smith for 6 yds to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+6
0.3%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Andrew Homer for 6 yds to the MiaOh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
0.4%
Gus Ragland run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
0.4%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Luke MayockSimilar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
0.4%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q4 3:16
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
0.4%
Kyle Kramer punt for 26 yds, downed at the Cincy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 12
OWN 41
-2
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 39Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 14
OWN 39
-2
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:18
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)
-20
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:13
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 25
-5.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 4:40
Michael Warren II run for 14 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST down
-5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com