Miami (OH)

Profile vs. FBS, 2017

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0632nd
  Defense+0.0176th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.7%47th
  Defense40.0%71st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1226th
  Defense+1.2050th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0443rd
  Defense+0.0259th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.0934th
  Defense0.0088th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.4%51st
  Defense45.0%67th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.5%40th
  Defense30.1%77th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1080th
  Defense2.9145th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense16.3%85th
  Defense20.9%59th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.6%55th
  Defense15.8%47th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2017

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Miami (OH) allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   MRSH
2. W
   APSU
3. L
   CIN
4. W
   CMU
5. L
   ND
6. L
   BGSU
7. L
   KENT
8. W
   BUF
9. L
   OHIO
10. W
    AKR
11. L
    EMU
12. W
    BALL

Bars above the line: better than expected for Miami (OH).

Players, 2017

1. Gus RaglandQB283 plays · +0.259 pts/play · 50th of 226 QBs
   1.37WAR0.83 to 1.86
2. Kenny YoungRB156 plays · +0.175 pts/play · 27th of 352 RBs
   0.51WAR0.39 to 0.64
3. Billy BahlQB118 plays · +0.166 pts/play · 141st of 226 QBs
   0.37WAR0.15 to 0.56
4. Alonzo SmithRB113 plays · +0.101 pts/play · 154th of 352 RBs
   0.21WAR0.13 to 0.30
5. James GardnerWR73 plays · +0.144 pts/play · 41st of 426 WRs
   0.20WAR0.11 to 0.28
6. Jared MurphyWR41 plays · +0.118 pts/play · 223rd of 426 WRs
   0.09WAR0.05 to 0.13
7. Sam SlomanPK14 plays · +0.342 pts/play · 70th of 110 kickers
   0.09WAR0.04 to 0.14
8. Sam MartinWR31 plays · +0.138 pts/play · 254th of 426 WRs
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Miami (OH)'s players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2017

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  41341384th of 130Roster talent: 413, 84th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  12312391st of 130Recruiting: 123, 91st of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  88%88%8th of 128Returning production: 88%, 8th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −2.2−2.277th of 128SP+ rating: −2.2, 77th of 128 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2017

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Miami (OH)'s own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 9 clear-cut ones account for 0.17 of the 0.24 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at MRSHQ4 15:00 4th & 1 at M-OH 17, down 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.3 pts
2. vs BGSUQ4 10:56 4th & 1 at M-OH 34, down 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.1 pts
3. vs BUFQ2 12:53 4th & 1 at BUF 27, up 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
4. vs AKRQ2 0:00 4th & 1 at AKR 11, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
5. vs BGSUQ2 4:23 4th & 1 at BGSU 4, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
6. at KENTQ4 15:00 4th & 6 at KENT 40, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
7. vs BGSUQ4 0:31 4th & 10 at BGSU 27, down 8Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.4 pts
8. vs BUFQ2 5:23 4th & 1 at M-OH 34, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2017

129th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Miami (OH)'s chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   MRSH
2. W

   APSU
3. L

   CIN
4. W

   CMU
5. L

   ND
6. L

   BGSU
7. L

   KENT
8. W

   BUF
9. L

   OHIO
10. W

    AKR
11. L

    EMU
12. W

    BALL

What moved it, 2017

Every game starts at Miami (OH)'s pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.27
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock−0.10
• Timeouts−0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.96

Game by game

• MRSHL 26-31 at MRSH63% → 12%Before kickoff +13 · On the field −50: Scoreboard −29, Timeouts −2
• APSUW 31-10 vs APSU98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +4
• CINL 17-21 vs CIN61% → 6%Before kickoff +11 · On the field −55: Scoreboard −53, Clock −3
• CMUW 31-14 at CMU57% → 99%Before kickoff +7 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +50, Timeouts −1
• NDL 17-52 at ND9% → 0%Before kickoff −41 · On the field −9: Scoreboard −11
• BGSUL 29-37 vs BGSU87% → 3%Before kickoff +37 · On the field −83: Scoreboard −59, Clock −4
• KENTL 14-17 at KENT74% → 15%Before kickoff +24 · On the field −59: Scoreboard −25, Timeouts −2
• BUFW 24-14 vs BUF65% → 97%Before kickoff +15 · On the field +32: Scoreboard +32, Timeouts +2
• OHIOL 28-45 at OHIO37% → 1%Before kickoff −13 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −34, Timeouts −1
• AKRW 24-14 vs AKR81% → 97%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +23
• EMUL 24-27 vs EMU59% → 14%Before kickoff +9 · On the field −45: Scoreboard −44, Clock −4
• BALLW 28-7 at BALL88% → 100%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +19, Clock +1

Points of win probability, from Miami (OH)'s side.

Closest call

MASS 20-23 M-OH (2024) - Miami (OH) dropped to a 6.6% win probability before pulling it out.