Miami (OH)

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1444th
  Defense+0.1831st
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense40.2%25th
  Defense46.8%16th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3695th
  Defense+1.1183rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1049th
  Defense+0.1148th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1736th
  Defense+0.2724th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense43.2%17th
  Defense51.1%13th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense35.1%63rd
  Defense36.1%22nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9248th
  Defense3.2511th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.5%50th
  Defense17.6%24th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.2%37th
  Defense2.6%79th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Miami (OH) allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   MRSH
2. L
   EKU
3. L
   MICH
4. L
   CIN
5. L
   BUF
6. W
   MASS
7. L
   AKR
8. L
   NIU
9. W
   KENT
10. L
    WMU
11. L
    CMU
12. L
    OHIO

Bars above the line: better than expected for Miami (OH).

Players, 2014

1. Andrew HendrixQB486 plays · +0.218 pts/play · 28th of 199 QBs
   1.99WAR1.28 to 2.75
2. David FrazierWR79 plays · +0.158 pts/play · 47th of 469 WRs
   0.23WAR0.13 to 0.36
3. Spencer McInnisRB61 plays · +0.090 pts/play · 212th of 350 RBs
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.14
4. Sam MartinWR27 plays · +0.190 pts/play · 215th of 469 WRs
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.14
5. Jared MurphyWR63 plays · +0.072 pts/play · 247th of 469 WRs
   0.08WAR0.01 to 0.17
6. Kaleb PattersonPK10 plays · +0.441 pts/play · 83rd of 114 kickers
   0.08WAR0.06 to 0.11
7. Rokeem WilliamsWR64 plays · +0.061 pts/play · 275th of 469 WRs
   0.07WAR−0.02 to 0.16
8. Christian KochPK48 plays · +0.048 pts/play · 101st of 114 kickers
   0.04WAR−0.01 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Miami (OH)'s players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Miami (OH)'s own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 8 clear-cut ones account for 0.17 of the 0.21 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs MASSQ4 1:19 4th & 5 at MASS 38, up 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it5.5 pts
2. vs EKUQ4 9:14 4th & 2 at EKU 20, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it3.1 pts
3. vs EKUQ2 6:39 4th & 1 at EKU 4, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it1.8 pts
4. vs OHIOQ2 4:29 4th & 1 at M-OH 34, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it1.6 pts
5. at BUFQ4 4:29 4th & 15 at BUF 37, down 8Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal1.6 pts
6. vs OHIOQ3 8:23 4th & 1 at M-OH 34, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it1.4 pts
7. vs KENTQ3 0:40 4th & 3 at KENT 23, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it1.3 pts
8. vs KENTQ2 12:28 4th & 1 at M-OH 39, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it1.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

114th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Miami (OH)'s chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   MRSH
2. L

   EKU
3. L

   MICH
4. L

   CIN
5. L

   BUF
6. W

   MASS
7. L

   AKR
8. L

   NIU
9. W

   KENT
10. L

    WMU
11. L

    CMU
12. L

    OHIO

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Miami (OH)'s pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−2.25
• Possession & field position−0.05
• Clock−0.05
• Timeouts−0.07
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.70

Game by game

• MRSHL 27-42 vs MRSH6% → 1%Before kickoff −44 · On the field −5: Scoreboard −13, Clock −1
• EKUL 10-17 vs EKU62% → 5%Before kickoff +12 · On the field −57: Scoreboard −52, Clock −3
• MICHL 10-34 at MICH3% → 1%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −6
• CINL 24-31 at CIN3% → 6%Before kickoff −47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard −8, Timeouts −1
• BUFL 27-35 at BUF34% → 3%Before kickoff −16 · On the field −30: Scoreboard −30, Timeouts −2
• MASSW 42-41 vs MASS63% → 55%Before kickoff +13 · On the field −8: Possession & field position −4, Scoreboard −3
• AKRL 19-29 at AKR18% → 4%Before kickoff −32 · On the field −14: Scoreboard −22, Timeouts −1
• NIUL 41-51 at NIU18% → 4%Before kickoff −32 · On the field −14: Scoreboard −21, Timeouts −1
• KENTW 10-3 vs KENT63% → 96%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +33: Scoreboard +33, Timeouts +1
• WMUL 10-41 vs WMU33% → 0%Before kickoff −17 · On the field −33: Scoreboard −38, Clock −1
• CMUL 27-34 at CMU17% → 16%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −18, Possession & field position +3
• OHIOL 21-24 vs OHIO47% → 5%Before kickoff −3 · On the field −42: Scoreboard −46, Clock −2

Points of win probability, from Miami (OH)'s side.

Closest call

MASS 20-23 M-OH (2024) - Miami (OH) dropped to a 6.6% win probability before pulling it out.