Try the model
M-OH

Miami (OH) 10 at Michigan 34

MICH
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Michigan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:18 · Spencer Treadwell run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 9:14: Kaleb Patterson 26 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +0.7 pts (now 6%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:24: Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Dawan Scott for 3 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK) — M-OH win probability +3.4 pts (now 10%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:26: Derrick Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK) — MICH win probability +1.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:44: Devin Gardner pass complete to Jake Butt for 29 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK) — MICH win probability +3.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:50: Derrick Green run for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK) — MICH win probability +1.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6M-OH made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 11:13MICH 4th & 5 at M-OH 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:00M-OH 4th & 18 at M-OH 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:42MICH 4th & 9 at midfield, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:07M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:57M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:14M-OH 4th & 4 at MICH 9, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.9%−0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:10M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:00MICH 4th & 11 at M-OH 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    91.5%
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00M-OH 4th & 7 at MICH 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:59MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:33M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:04MICH 4th & 7 at M-OH 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    90.6%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:12M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:54M-OH 4th & 14 at MICH 32, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:50M-OH 4th & 7 at midfield, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:18MICH 4th & 10 at M-OH 23, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4M-OH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:00MICH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:24M-OH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:26MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:44MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:50MICH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:4798% → 97%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+2
97.5%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+4
97.5%
Derrick Green run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+11
97.5%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Da'Mario Jones for 11 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
97.5%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 16 yds to the MiaOh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
97.5%
Derrick Green run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 10
-2
97.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 12 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Mich Derrick GreenSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
97.5%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:13
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+29
97.0%
Matt Wile 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2INT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
97.0%
Paul Moses run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-5
97.0%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (N/A) to the MiaOh 15Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 14
OWN 15
-5
97.0%
MIAMI OH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 10Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 19
OWN 10
0
97.0%
Andrew Hendrix pass intercepted Jourdan Lewis return for no gain to the MiaOh 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 2:3297% → 97%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
96.8%
Devin Gardner run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+8
96.8%
Derrick Green run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
96.8%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 4 yds to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+2
96.8%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 17Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+17
96.7%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 17 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 0:004% → 3%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
96.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
96.6%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Offensive holding (N/A) to the MiaOh 15Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+14
96.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 14 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-12
96.6%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Brennen Beyer for a loss of 12 yards to the MiaOh 17Similar
Q1 7:00
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+6
96.7%
Christian Kock punt for 40 yds , Dennis Norfleet returns for 6 yds to the Mich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
96.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-2
96.5%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 9
50
0
96.5%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Da'Mario JonesSimilar
Q1 4:42
4TH & 9
50
0
96.4%
Will Hagerup punt for 42 yds, downed at the MiaOh 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+21
96.2%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 21 yds to the MiaOh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
96.1%
Spencer McInnis run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+3
96.1%
Spencer McInnis run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
96.2%
Andrew Hendrix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
96.2%
Christian Kock punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:2696% → 96%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
96.0%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 18 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
96.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+10
96.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
95.9%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-1
95.9%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+8
95.8%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 22 yds Amara Darboh fumbled, forced by Tre Clifton, recovered by MiaOh Kent Kern , return for 8 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
95.6%
MIAMI OH Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (N/A) to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 15
OWN 24
0
95.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+14
95.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 14 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 1
OWN 38
-5
95.5%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (N/A) to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
95.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
Q2 13:57
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
95.8%
Christian Kock punt for 46 yds, downed at the Mich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
95.3%
Derrick Green run for 1 yd to the Mich 22Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
95.2%
Devin Gardner pass intercepted Quinten Rollins return for no gain to the Mich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10FG
5 plays · 26 yds · 2:075% → 6%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
94.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Dawan Scott for 20 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
94.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+4
94.7%
Dawan Scott run for 4 yds to the Mich 11Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+2
94.8%
Spencer Treadwell run for 2 yds to the Mich 9Similar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+26
94.1%
Kaleb Patterson 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12TD
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:436% → 10%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
93.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 10 yds to the Mich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
93.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 5 yds to the Mich 6Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+3
93.6%
Spencer Treadwell run for 3 yds to the Mich 3Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
90.2%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Dawan Scott for 3 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:5892% → 94%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+26
92.0%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 26 yds to the MiaOh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-7
92.6%
Devin Gardner sacked by Bryson Albright for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 17
OPP 47
+27
92.3%
Derrick Green run for 27 yds to the MiaOh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
92.8%
Derrick Green run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
92.8%
Derrick Green run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 1Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.2%
Derrick Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:167% → 6%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
93.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
93.5%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to David FrazierSimilar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+1
94.0%
Andrew Hendrix run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 9
OWN 20
+3
94.1%
Christian Kock punt for 36 yds , Amara Darboh returns for 3 yds to the Mich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 11 yds · 2:2994% → 93%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
94.2%
Devin Gardner run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+3
94.2%
Derrick Green run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+4
94.1%
Derrick Green run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
94.3%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
94.2%
Justice Hayes run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+6
93.3%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Freddy Canteen for 6 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 1
OPP 32
-5
93.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 6
OPP 37
-5
93.3%
MICHIGAN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
92.9%
Will Hagerup punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.5%
Spencer Treadwell run for no gain to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
93.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
92.2%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 24 yds to the MiaOh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
91.3%
Andrew Hendrix run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+4
91.7%
Andrew Hendrix run for 4 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
91.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to David Frazier, broken up by Joe BoldenSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
92.2%
Christian Kock punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Dennis Norfleet at the Mich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
91.9%
Derrick Green run for 6 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+2
91.9%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+5
91.6%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 5 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
92.0%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
91.9%
Devin Gardner run for 8 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+1
92.0%
Derrick Green run for 1 yd to the Mich 36Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+8
91.6%
Will Hagerup punt for 44 yds , David Frazier returns for 8 yds to the MiaOh 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
90.4%
Spencer McInnis run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+6
90.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 6 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
90.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Rokeem Williams, broken up by Blake CountessSimilar
Q3 9:33
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
90.8%
Christian Kock punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Amara Darboh at the Mich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
91.8%
Dennis Norfleet run for 21 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
92.7%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for no gain to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
92.6%
Devin Gardner run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
92.3%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
91.7%
Matt Wile punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4611% → 10%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.2%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Spencer McInnisSimilar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
89.3%
Dawan Scott run for no gain to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
89.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Dawan ScottSimilar
Q3 5:12
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
89.8%
Christian Kock punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dennis Norfleet at the Mich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 1:1491% → 96%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
90.8%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jake Butt for 22 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
91.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
95.5%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jake Butt for 29 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 43 yds · 3:505% → 4%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.6%
Andrew Hendrix run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
94.1%
Andrew Hendrix run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
94.0%
Spencer McInnis run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+31
93.9%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 31 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
92.8%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (Collin Buchanan) to the Mich 33Similar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+2
93.2%
Spencer McInnis run for 2 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+4
93.3%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Dawan Scott for 4 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
93.8%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Dawan ScottSimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 9
OPP 27
-5
95.7%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (Alex Welch) to the Mich 32Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 14
OPP 32
0
96.0%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 4:5897% → 100%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
97.0%
Derrick Green run for 7 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+8
97.1%
Derrick Green run for 8 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
97.2%
Derrick Green run for 17 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
97.2%
Derrick Green run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 35Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+8
98.1%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jake Butt for 8 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
98.1%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
98.1%
Derrick Green run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+10
98.1%
Devin Gardner run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.7%
Derrick Green run for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.2%
Andrew Hendrix run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+3
99.2%
Paul Moses run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+13
99.2%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Alex Welch for 13 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.2%
Andrew Hendrix run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+1
99.2%
Paul Moses run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line Paul Moses fumbled, forced by Dymonte Thomas, recovered by MiaOh Trevan Brown , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 7
50
0
99.2%
Spencer McInnis run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 7
50
0
99.2%
Christian Kock punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Dennis Norfleet at the Mich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 26FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 5:37100% → 100%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
99.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 16 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the Mich 36Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+27
99.7%
Shane Morris run for 27 yds to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
99.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
99.8%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+11
99.8%
Justice Hayes run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.8%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jehu Chesson, broken up by Marshall TaylorSimilar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-8
99.8%
Justice Hayes run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 21 MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding (N/A) to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 18
OPP 31
+1
99.8%
Justice Hayes run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 17
OPP 30
+7
99.7%
Justice Hayes run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 23Similar
Q4 0:18
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
99.8%
Matt Wile 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.5%
Spencer Treadwell run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:44
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jake Butt for 29 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)
+3.8
TD · Q2 7:24
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Dawan Scott for 3 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)
-3.4
TD · Q4 9:50
Derrick Green run for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)
+1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com