Try the model
M-OH

Miami (OH) 38 at Bowling Green 23

BGSU
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Grant Loy pass complete to Justin Sawmiller for 40 yds for a TD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:56: Gus Ragland run for 1 yd for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +7.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:33: Gus Ragland pass complete to Andrew Homer for 6 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +10.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:05: Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 26 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +5.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:13: Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 7 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:34: Davion Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +2.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11M-OH made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:31BGSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:46BGSU 4th & 8 at M-OH 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    34.8%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:27M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:22BGSU 4th & 7 at M-OH 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−3.6
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:09M-OH 4th & 14 at M-OH 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:02M-OH 4th & 9 at BGSU 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    62.3%−3.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:02BGSU 4th & 3 at M-OH 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    31.5%−0.7
    47% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:32BGSU 4th & 10 at M-OH 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    27.5%−2.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:56BGSU 4th & 19 at BGSU 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−1.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00BGSU 4th & 20 at BGSU 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−1.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:05BGSU 4th & 14 at BGSU 21, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:40M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 40, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:49BGSU 4th & 24 at BGSU 18, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:59M-OH 4th & 6 at BGSU 44, up 28
    Close callPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.6%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00BGSU 4th & 28 at BGSU 18, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:24M-OH 4th & 3 at BGSU 39, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:02BGSU 4th & 6 at M-OH 28, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:22M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 24, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:10M-OH 4th & 2 at BGSU 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%−0.9
    51% to make
    Punt
    94.0%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:51M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:56M-OH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:33M-OH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:05M-OH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:34BGSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:13BGSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:34M-OH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
33.8%
Alonzo Smith run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
33.8%
Kyle Kramer punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Marcus Milton at the BwGrn 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+1
33.8%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+1
33.8%
Gus Ragland run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
34.5%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
34.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Deric Phouthavong for 8 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
34.5%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Quintin MorrisSimilar
Q1 13:31
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
34.4%
Grant Tinnerman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Joshua Allen at the MiaOh 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 1:5565% → 66%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
34.7%
Maurice Thomas run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
34.7%
Maurice Thomas run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+29
34.6%
Alonzo Smith run for 29 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
34.5%
Gus Ragland run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+5
34.4%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, offside defense (Roland Walder) to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+30
33.6%
Maurice Thomas run for 30 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
34.1%
Bryson Denley run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
34.2%
Andrew Clair run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+2
34.3%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+2
34.2%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
34.3%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Deric PhouthavongSimilar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
34.2%
DOEGE, Jarret pass incomplete to DENLEY, Bryson, PENALTY MIAMI roughing passer (TRAWICK, Nate) 15 yards to the MIAMI48, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
34.6%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-1
34.6%
Andrew Clair run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
34.4%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Deric PhouthavongSimilar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
34.1%
Grant Tinnerman punt for 35 yds, downed at the MiaOh 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
34.0%
Maurice Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 10Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+7
34.0%
Gus Ragland run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 17Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+10
34.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 10 yds to the MiaOh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
33.8%
Alonzo Smith run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+1
33.6%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+2
33.7%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
33.9%
Kyle Kramer punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Marcus Milton at the BwGrn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6MISSED FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:3334% → 35%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+19
34.2%
RB Marlow III run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 21 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Allan Koikoi) to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
34.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 20 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
35.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to RB Marlow III for 11 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
36.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 11 yds to the MiaOh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
36.0%
Andrew Clair run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 23Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 11
OPP 23
-1
35.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Andrew Clair for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 12
OPP 24
+5
35.1%
DOEGE, Jarret pass incomplete to PHOUTHAVONG, D. (RAGLAND, Gus), PENALTY MIAMI offside defense (MARSH, David) 5 yards to the MIAMI19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
35.4%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Scott Miller, broken up by Joshua AllenSimilar
Q1 1:22
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+36
34.6%
Nate Needham 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1366% → 66%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
33.8%
Davion Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-12
33.5%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Luke Mayock MIAMI OH Penalty, intentional grounding (Gus Ragland) to the MiaOh 12Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 18
OWN 12
+4
34.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 16Similar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
34.3%
Kyle Kramer punt for 42 yds, downed at the BwGrn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0635% → 35%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
34.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Deric Phouthavong for 7 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 49
-8
34.9%
Andrew Clair run for a loss of 8 yards to the BwGrn 39 Andrew Clair fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Junior McMullenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:5268% → 68%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
31.8%
Alonzo Smith run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
31.6%
Davion Johnson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
31.6%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Luke Mayock, broken up by Montre GregorySimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+12
32.0%
Gus Ragland run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
31.6%
Davion Johnson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
31.6%
Davion Johnson run for no gain to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
32.0%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Andrew HomerSimilar
Q2 12:02
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+30
31.7%
Samuel Sloman 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 4:3031% → 33%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
30.8%
Rico Frye run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
31.3%
Rico Frye run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
32.1%
Rico Frye run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
32.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Deric Phouthavong for 9 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 1
OPP 32
-8
33.1%
Jarret Doege sacked by Brad Koenig for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+6
32.0%
Andrew Clair run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q2 12:02
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+8
31.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Deric Phouthavong for 8 yds to the MiaOh 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
33.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Rico Frye for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+1
33.0%
Rico Frye run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
32.2%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
32.5%
Nate Needham 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:3669% → 78%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
30.6%
Gus Ragland run for 17 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
29.4%
Maurice Thomas run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-1
29.5%
Davion Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+10
29.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 10 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+34
29.4%
Alonzo Smith run for 34 yds to the BwGrn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
29.1%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.1%
Gus Ragland run for 1 yd for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
23.4%
Andrew Clair run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-12
23.3%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete BOWLING GREEN Penalty, intentional grounding (Jarret Doege) to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 24
OWN 11
+5
23.0%
Andrew Clair run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
23.0%
Grant Tinnerman punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 2:5778% → 90%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
21.9%
Davion Johnson run for no gain to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
22.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Alonzo Smith for 3 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+15
22.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Andrew Homer for 15 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+24
21.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 24 yds to the BwGrn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
21.5%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Luke Mayock, broken up by Clint StephensSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+1
21.5%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+4
22.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 4 yds to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+5
20.1%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the BwGrn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
9.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Andrew Homer for 6 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14END OF HALF
9 plays · 49 yds · 0:2714% → 21%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
14.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Andrew Clair for 7 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
14.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to RB Marlow III for 6 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
14.9%
Jarret Doege run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
15.6%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Deric Phouthavong, broken up by Brad KoenigSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
15.2%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
50
+24
20.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Ra'veion Hargrove for 24 yds to the MiaOh 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
13.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 8 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
14.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Andrew Clair for 1 yd to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
14.4%
Jarret Doege run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
14.4%
Jarret Doege sacked by Junior McMullen for a loss of 7 yards to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 29
0
13.7%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Quintin MorrisSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 29
-3
13.6%
Bryson Denley run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 26
0
13.6%
Grant Tinnerman punt for 44 yds , Joshua Allen returns for no gain to the MiaOh 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 3:1891% → 96%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
9.5%
Alonzo Smith run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
9.1%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+2
9.2%
Jaylon Bester run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+23
9.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Luke Mayock for 23 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
8.8%
Alonzo Smith run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 3
OPP 25
-1
8.7%
Maurice Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+26
3.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 26 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.2%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Deric PhouthavongSimilar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
5.0%
Andrew Clair run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
4.9%
Jarret Doege sacked by Myles Reid for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q3 9:05
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
4.9%
Grant Tinnerman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Joshua Allen at the MiaOh 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
3.2%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Dominique RobinsonSimilar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
3.3%
Davion Johnson run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-5
2.9%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-2
3.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
3.7%
Kyle Kramer punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 3 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
4.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Deric Phouthavong for 10 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
4.6%
CLAIR, Andrew rush for no gain to the BGSU25 (KIMPLER, Ben), PENALTY BGSU holding (KURTZ, John) 10 yards to the BGSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+2
4.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to RB Marlow III for 2 yds to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
4.4%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Deric Phouthavong, broken up by Junior McMullenSimilar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+15
4.3%
DOEGE, Jarret pass intercepted by KOENIG, Brad at the BGSU26, KOENIG, Brad return to the BGSU16 (DOEGE, Jarret), PENALTY MIAMI personal foul (BROWN, Mike) 15 yards to the BGSU32, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
4.6%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Bryson DenleySimilar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-10
4.4%
DOEGE, Jarret rush for 9 yards to the BGSU41, out-of-bounds (MCMULLEN, J.), PENALTY BGSU holding (LABUS, Austin) 10 yards to the BGSU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 20
OWN 22
0
4.4%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Rico FryeSimilar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 20
OWN 22
-4
4.3%
Jarret Doege sacked by Bart Baratti for a loss of 4 yards to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q3 5:49
4TH & 24
OWN 18
0
4.3%
Grant Tinnerman punt for 30 yds, downed at the BwGrn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
2.4%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+1
2.4%
Davion Johnson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+1
2.5%
Davion Johnson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q3 2:59
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
2.9%
Kyle Kramer punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:582% → 2%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
1.6%
Rico Frye run for no gain to the BwGrn 3Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+12
1.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 12 yds to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
1.6%
Rico Frye run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+17
1.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to RB Marlow III for 17 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
1.6%
Jarret Doege sacked by Andrew Sharp for a loss of 8 yards to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 28
-8
1.5%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 30 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive holding (Derek Downs) to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 26
OWN 20
-3
1.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Andrew Clair for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 29
OWN 17
+1
1.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Jordan Wayne-Prather for 1 yd to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 28
OWN 18
0
1.5%
Grant Tinnerman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Joshua Allen at the MiaOh 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
0.6%
Jaylon Bester run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+5
0.6%
Jaylon Bester run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
0.6%
Jaylon Bester run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-1
0.6%
Zach Kahn run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+5
0.6%
Zach Kahn run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q4 12:24
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+1
0.6%
Jaylon Bester run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23TD
11 plays · 62 yds · 3:280% → 2%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
0.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 16 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
0.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to RB Marlow III for 7 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+7
0.3%
Jarret Doege run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
0.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for no gain to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-6
0.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Andrew Clair for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 16
OPP 38
+10
0.3%
Andrew Clair run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q4 9:02
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+11
0.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 11 yds to the MiaOh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
0.3%
Andrew Clair run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 9Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+3
0.3%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.3%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Quintin Morris, broken up by Cedric AssehSimilar
Q4 5:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
1.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to RB Marlow III for 6 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0699% → 99%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
1.0%
Jaylon Bester run for no gain to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
0.9%
Jaylon Bester run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+2
0.9%
Jaylon Bester run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
0.9%
Kyle Kramer punt for 30 yds, downed at the BwGrn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 0:481% → 4%
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
1.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Deric Phouthavong for 6 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
1.3%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to RB Marlow IIISimilar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+26
1.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 26 yds to the MiaOh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
1.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 7 yds to the MiaOh 15 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, roughing passer (Myles Reid) to the MiaOh 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
4.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 7 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 26TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 3:3697% → 100%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
2.9%
Alonzo Smith run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 2
OPP 32
-7
2.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the BwGrn 39 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Gus RaglandSimilar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+7
3.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+29
3.2%
Alonzo Smith run for 29 yds to the BwGrn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
2.8%
Alonzo Smith run for no gain to the BwGrn 3Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.2%
Davion Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 27TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 0:331% → 3%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
0.7%
Grant Loy pass complete to RB Marlow III for 11 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
0.8%
Grant Loy pass incomplete to RB Marlow III, broken up by Ja'don Rucker-FurlowSimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+11
0.8%
Grant Loy run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
0.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
0.8%
Grant Loy pass complete to Justin Sawmiller for 12 yds to the MiaOh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
2.7%
Grant Loy pass complete to Justin Sawmiller for 40 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:33
Gus Ragland pass complete to Andrew Homer for 6 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)
-10.2
TD · Q2 4:56
Gus Ragland run for 1 yd for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)
-7
TD · Q3 9:05
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 26 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)
-5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com