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M-OH

Miami (OH) 42 at Buffalo 51

BUF
2018 · Week 10 · Oct 30, 2018 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:12 · Kyle Kramer punt for 45 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the Buff 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 58Pregame prior+13.2Home team on offense−3.6Garbage-time factor−1.2Score differential−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:14: Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +12.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:58: Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 10 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK) MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — BUF win probability +9.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:29: Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 59 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +12.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:17: Gus Ragland run for 1 yd for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +21.8 pts (now 49%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:53: Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson PAT MISSED) — BUF win probability +20.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6M-OH made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00M-OH 4th & 1 at BUF 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    30.6%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:44M-OH 4th & 14 at M-OH 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:13BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:12M-OH 4th & 17 at M-OH 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−1.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:22M-OH 4th & 6 at BUF 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−0.6
    38% to make
    Punt
    35.9%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:19M-OH 4th & 15 at BUF 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:19BUF 4th & 7 at M-OH 30, tied
    Close callWent for it · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    65.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    64.6%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:23M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 28, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%−2.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:53M-OH 4th & 5 at midfield, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.3%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:54BUF 4th & 8 at M-OH 20, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    81.6%−7.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:44BUF 4th & 15 at BUF 39, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:35M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 39, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 7 of 7M-OH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:12M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:04BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:43M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:44BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:13M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:31BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:38BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:51BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 8:14M-OH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 4:58BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 2:29M-OH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q3 0:17M-OH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 8:53BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:4831% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
68.7%
Kenny Young run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+20
68.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Andrew Homer for 20 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
68.7%
Maurice Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+6
68.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Dominique Robinson for 6 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-5
68.7%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+10
68.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 10 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+4
68.7%
Alonzo Smith run for 4 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
66.5%
Gus Ragland run for 27 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:0867% → 68%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
68.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 75 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:1532% → 36%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
68.1%
Kenny Young run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+8
67.9%
Gus Ragland run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
67.8%
Gus Ragland run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+41
67.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 26 yds to the BUFFALO 29 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, roughing passer (Taylor Riggins) to the Buff 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
67.6%
BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Buff 9Similar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 5
OPP 9
+4
67.6%
Kenny Young run for 4 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+3
67.6%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the Buff 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
64.2%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:5066% → 68%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
65.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
65.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+8
65.5%
Tyree Jackson run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
65.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+27
65.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 27 yds to the MiaOh 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
66.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 10Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+3
66.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 7Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
68.1%
Tyree Jackson run for 7 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.0%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Dominique Robinson, broken up by Jordan CollierSimilar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.0%
Kenny Young run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+17
67.3%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Andrew Homer for 17 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
66.2%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Alonzo SmithSimilar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-9
66.5%
Maurice Thomas run for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 19
OWN 36
+5
67.3%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 5 yds to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 14
OWN 41
+2
67.5%
Kyle Kramer punt for 54 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for 2 yds to the Buff 43 BUFFALO Penalty, illegal block (Jaret Patterson) to the Buff 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0967% → 66%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
66.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Buff 5Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+10
66.7%
[PSTL], JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to JONES, Charlie, PENALTY MIAMI holding (BANKS, Travion) 10 yards to the UB15, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
66.8%
[SGUN], JACKSON, Tyree pass complete to PATTERSON, Jare for 9 yards to the UB24 (KOENIG, Brad), PENALTY UB holding (KSIEZARCZYK, Ev) 7 yards to the UB8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 17
OWN 8
-2
66.8%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Brad Koenig for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 1 Tyree Jackson fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 24
OWN 1
+7
66.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 7 yds to the Buff 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 8
+10
65.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 10 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
65.5%
Evan Finegan punt blocked by Doug Costin, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 18 blocked by Doug CostinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7TD
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:5937% → 43%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
63.4%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+7
63.5%
Alonzo Smith run for 7 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+7
64.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 7 yds to the Buff 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
63.4%
Gus Ragland run for 3 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.4%
Gus Ragland run for 1 yd for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
59.6%
[SGUN], JACKSON, Tyree pass complete to JOHNSON, Anthon for 7 yards to the UB32, out-of-bounds (BROWN, Mike), PENALTY UB ineligible downfield on pass (JACK-KURDYLA, T) 5 yards to the UB20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+9
59.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 9 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
59.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
59.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:13
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
58.6%
Evan Finegan punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
58.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 4 yds to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q2 12:12
4TH & 17
OWN 15
0
59.9%
Kyle Kramer punt for 45 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the Buff 40Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-7
58.3%
Gus Ragland sacked by Justin Brandon for 0 yards to the MiaOh 26 MIAMI OH Penalty, intentional grounding (Gus Ragland) to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 13
OWN 19
-4
59.4%
Gus Ragland sacked by Malcolm Koonce for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaOh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:3060% → 67%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
59.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+15
60.0%
MIAMI OH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Zedrick Raymond) to the MiaOh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
60.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
61.3%
Anthony Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
61.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+15
60.2%
[SGUN], JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to MABRY, Tyler, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (MONTGOMERY, D.) 15 yards to the MIAMI13, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
61.3%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-7
61.3%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Zedrick Raymond for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 17
OPP 20
+20
66.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 20 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 10 yds · 4:0338% → 37%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
61.8%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+5
61.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 5 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 4
OPP 36
-10
61.9%
[PSTL], SMITH, Alonzo rush for 4 yards to the UB32 (HODGE, Khalil), PENALTY MIAMI holding (LARUBBIO, J.) 10 yards to the UB46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 14
OPP 46
+8
63.7%
Kenny Young run for 8 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 8:22
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+11
63.2%
Gus Ragland run for 11 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
61.0%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Dominique RobinsonSimilar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-4
61.3%
Maurice Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 31Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 14
OPP 31
-1
63.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 15
OPP 32
+50
63.0%
Samuel Sloman 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12TD
17 plays · 68 yds · 3:4165% → 76%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
65.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+22
65.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 22 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
67.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
67.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 4 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+9
67.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 9 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
68.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
68.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Tyler MabrySimilar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
67.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+10
65.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 10 yds to the MiaOh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
68.1%
[SGUN], PATTERSON, Jare rush for 9 yards to the MIAMI11 (KOIKOI, Allan), PENALTY UB holding (MABRY, Tyler) 10 yards to the MIAMI30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 20
OPP 30
+11
67.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+7
68.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 7 yds to the MiaOh 12Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 2
OPP 12
0
67.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 10 yds to the MiaOh 2 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the MiaOh 12Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+2
67.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
67.6%
[PSTL], JACKSON, Tyree pass intercepted by KOIKOI, Allan at the MIAMI0, KOIKOI, Allan return to the MIAMI0, touchback, PENALTY MIAMI holding (ALLEN, Josh) 5 yards to the MIAMI5, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
76.4%
Tyree Jackson run for 5 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.1%
Alonzo Smith run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0975% → 86%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+52
74.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 52 yds to the MiaOh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
76.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Charlie Jones for 5 yds to the MiaOh 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 18
-5
76.8%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (Tyler Mabry) to the MiaOh 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+7
76.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 16Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+13
76.0%
K.J. Osborn run for 13 yds to the MiaOh 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
76.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Charlie JonesSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
76.8%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 4Similar
Q3 11:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
85.9%
Tyree Jackson run for 4 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3515% → 28%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
84.7%
MIAMI OH Penalty, personal foul (-12 Yards) to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+44
84.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 44 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
82.9%
Kenny Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+15
83.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 15 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-4
81.7%
Gus Ragland sacked by Khalil Hodge for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 14
OPP 33
+12
85.1%
Gus Ragland run for 12 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+4
84.8%
Alonzo Smith run for 4 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+14
84.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 14 yds to the Buff 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
84.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.7%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1679% → 91%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Charlie Jones, broken up by Myles ReidSimilar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
78.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 11 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+37
79.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 37 yds to the MiaOh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
81.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 13 yds to the MiaOh 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
81.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 7Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 3
OPP 7
-3
81.8%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 10Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
91.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 10 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK) MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2911% → 25%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.8%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
89.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 1 yd to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
89.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 9 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
88.2%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+59
75.3%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 59 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18TD
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:1125% → 49%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
74.6%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Kenny YoungSimilar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
74.8%
Gus Ragland run for 2 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+15
75.3%
Kenny Young run for 15 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+24
72.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Nate Becker for 24 yds to the Buff 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
72.8%
Gus Ragland run for 2 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q3 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.9%
Gus Ragland run for 1 yd for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:1763% → 61%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
62.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to George Rushing for 11 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
65.9%
Tyree Jackson run for a loss of 10 yards to the Buff 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 36
+10
62.3%
Tyree Jackson run for 10 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
62.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Sterling WeatherfordSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
61.0%
Evan Finegan punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
56.9%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-3
55.9%
Gus Ragland sacked by Jordan Collier and DeShondrick Foxworth for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+6
58.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Nate Becker for 6 yds to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+25
59.3%
Kyle Kramer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the BUFFALO 32 MIAMI OH Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Buff 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:3366% → 89%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
65.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+2
66.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
66.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
66.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+15
64.7%
[SGUN], JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to OSBORN, K.J., PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (ASSEH, Cedric) 15 yards to the MIAMI28, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
68.6%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+25
68.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 25 yds to the MiaOh 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
89.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
81.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jaylon Bester for 20 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
79.3%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
80.2%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 5
50
0
78.2%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Nate Becker, broken up by Tyrone HillSimilar
Q4 8:53
4TH & 5
50
0
80.9%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23FG
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:2989% → 93%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
50
+11
89.0%
Tyree Jackson run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
89.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+14
89.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 14 yds to the MiaOh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
89.7%
Tyree Jackson run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 9
OPP 21
-15
89.7%
BUFFALO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (K.J. Osborn) to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 24
OPP 36
+6
88.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to George Rushing for 6 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 18
OPP 30
+10
88.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 10 yds to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+37
92.8%
Adam Mitcheson 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 24FUMBLE
10 plays · 46 yds · 0:007% → 10%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
92.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Luke Mayock for 10 yds to the MiaOh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
91.9%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
92.2%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+12
93.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 12 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
91.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jalen Walker for 21 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
89.9%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Luke MayockSimilar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-5
89.9%
Gus Ragland sacked by Jake Molinich for 0 yards to the Buff 32 MIAMI OH Penalty, intentional grounding (Gus Ragland) to the Buff 37Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 37
+15
91.1%
RAGLAND, Gus pass incomplete to YOUNG, Kenny, PENALTY UB personal foul (HODGE, Khalil) 15 yards to the UB22, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
89.7%
Gus Ragland sacked by Kadofi Wright for a loss of 9 yards to the Buff 44 Gus Ragland fumbled, recovered by Buff James Patterson , return for 0 yards , return for 15 yds to the Buff 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 0:4095% → 95%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
94.8%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 43 BUFFALO Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+1
94.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Buff 44Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-5
96.0%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 39Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 15
OWN 39
+22
95.3%
Evan Finegan punt for 32 yds, downed at the BUFFALO 29 BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive holding (Jordan Collier) to the MiaOh 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 3%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
96.1%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Nate BeckerSimilar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
96.2%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Kenny YoungSimilar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
96.6%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Kenny YoungSimilar
Q4 1:35
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
96.8%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Dominique RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 11
OPP 40
-1
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:17
Gus Ragland run for 1 yd for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)
-21.8
TD · Q4 8:53
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson PAT MISSED)
+20.8
TD · Q3 2:29
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 59 yds for a TD (Samuel Sloman KICK)
-12.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com