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M-OH

Miami (OH) 20 at Toledo 30

TOL
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:57 · Alec Bevelhimer punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+12.5+6.30−6.3−12.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 109Pregame prior+3.9Home team on offense−2.8Score differential−3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Blowout margin+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 2:38: Dom Dzioban 35 Yd Field Goal — TOL win probability +1.9 pts (now 57%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:03: Dylan Cunanan 48 Yd Field Goal — M-OH win probability +2.7 pts (now 37%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 11:20: Dylan Cunanan 47 Yd Field Goal — M-OH win probability +2.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:24: Kevin Davis 9 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Dom Dzioban Kick) — M-OH win probability +2.8 pts (now 52%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:46: Javon Tracy 3 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Dom Dzioban Kick) — M-OH win probability +3.1 pts (now 56%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 11:39M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:55M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:00M-OH 4th & 4 at TOL 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.1%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:47M-OH 4th & 8 at M-OH 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:52TOL 4th & 3 at M-OH 3, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.4%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−6.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:38M-OH 4th & 4 at TOL 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.6%−0.4
    80% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:49M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:03TOL 4th & 10 at M-OH 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:20TOL 4th & 9 at M-OH 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    54.7%−6.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:55M-OH 4th & 12 at M-OH 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−3.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:44TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−2.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:57M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 40, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:59TOL 4th & 18 at TOL 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−8.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:24TOL 4th & 2 at M-OH 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.6%−2.8
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 3:1638% → 38%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
62.5%
Keyon Mozee run for 1 yd to the M-OH 14Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+11
62.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 11 yds to the M-OH 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.5%
Jordan Brunson run for 5 yds to the M-OH 30Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
62.4%
Keyon Mozee run for 4 yds to the M-OH 34Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
62.3%
Jordan Brunson run for no gain to the M-OH 34Similar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+32
62.5%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 40 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 32 yds to the M-OH 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5138% → 38%
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
62.0%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
62.0%
Keyon Mozee run for 5 yds to the M-OH 26Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
62.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:55
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
62.4%
punt blocked by Avery Smith blocked by Avery Smith , returns for no gain to the M-OH 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 4:4838% → 40%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
61.9%
Brett Gabbert run for no gain to the M-OH 24Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
61.9%
Keyon Mozee run for 6 yds to the M-OH 30Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+23
61.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Andre Johnson for 23 yds to the TOL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
60.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 16 yds to the TOL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
60.3%
Miami (OH) Penalty, False Start (Kolby Borders) to the TOL 36Similar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+3
60.8%
Jordan Brunson run for 3 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 12
OPP 33
0
60.2%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 12
OPP 33
+5
61.0%
Toledo Penalty, Offsides (D'Andre Ragin) to the TOL 28Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+14
60.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 14 yds to the TOL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
59.3%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
59.3%
Keyon Mozee run for 1 yd to the TOL 13Similar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+5
59.9%
Toledo Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the TOL 8Similar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
59.7%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+26
60.4%
Dom Dzioban 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4INT
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:3262% → 64%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
62.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 10 yds to the TOL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
62.1%
Connor Walendzak run for no gain to the TOL 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
62.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 9 yds to the TOL 44Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
62.8%
Connor Walendzak run for 2 yds to the TOL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
63.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 8 yds to the M-OH 46Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+15
63.6%
Miami (OH) Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Matt Salopek) to the M-OH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
63.9%
Sevaughn Clark run for no gain to the M-OH 20Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
64.0%
Miami (OH) Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Kobe Hilton) to the M-OH 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
64.0%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
64.0%
Tucker Gleason pass intercepted Corban Hondru return for no gain to the M-OH 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:3139% → 38%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+11
61.0%
Keyon Mozee run for 11 yds to the M-OH 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
60.7%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+2
60.8%
Brett Gabbert run for 2 yds to the M-OH 16 Brett Gabbert fumbled, recovered by M-OH Brett Gabbert B. Gabbert return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 8
OWN 16
0
61.4%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 8
OWN 16
-5
62.0%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 44 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for a loss of 5 yards to the TOL 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 4:3962% → 62%
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
62.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the TOL 35Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+40
61.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 40 yds to the M-OH 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
64.4%
Tucker Gleason run for 4 yds to the M-OH 21Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+8
64.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 8 yds to the M-OH 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
64.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the M-OH 10Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+9
64.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for 9 yds to the M-OH 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
64.4%
Tucker Gleason run for no gain to the M-OH 1Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
64.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for no gain to the M-OH 1Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
63.6%
Connor Walendzak run for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 3Similar
Q2 5:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
62.0%
Dylan Cunanan 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:0842% → 43%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
58.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 7 yds to the M-OH 26Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 3
OWN 26
0
57.4%
Keyon Mozee run for no gain to the M-OH 26Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+51
58.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 51 yds to the TOL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
53.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
54.2%
Keyon Mozee run for 6 yds to the TOL 17Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
55.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+35
56.9%
Dom Dzioban 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8INT
10 plays · 39 yds · 1:1762% → 61%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
62.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 4 yds to the TOL 26Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+7
62.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 7 yds to the TOL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
61.1%
(01:54) GLEASON, Tucker pass to the right incomplete intended for DOTTIN, Jaden thrown to the TOLEDO45, clock 01:55. PENALTY MIAMI Pass Interference on STRADER, Raion enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the TOLEDO42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
62.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 11 yds to the M-OH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
63.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 15 yds to the M-OH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
64.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-10
64.9%
Toledo Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jacquez Stuart) to the M-OH 39Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 17
OPP 39
0
62.5%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 17
OPP 39
-11
61.2%
Tucker Gleason pass intercepted Corban Hondru return for 11 yds to the M-OH 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1843% → 41%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
57.0%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
57.5%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
60.1%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 39 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for no gain to the TOL 25Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
59.2%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 0:3962% → 63%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
61.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
50
-5
64.6%
Tucker Gleason run for a loss of 5 yards to the TOL 45 Tucker Gleason fumbled, recovered by TOL Tucker Gleason T. Gleason return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+11
61.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 11 yds to the M-OH 44Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+14
65.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 14 yds to the M-OH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
67.0%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
66.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
65.3%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+48
62.6%
Dylan Cunanan 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:4061% → 61%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
61.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 10 yds to the TOL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
61.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the TOL 37Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+12
61.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 12 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
63.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 48Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+22
62.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 22 yds to the M-OH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
64.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
64.7%
Jerjuan Newton run for 1 yd to the M-OH 29Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
63.4%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+47
60.8%
Dylan Cunanan 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2343% → 40%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.3%
Keyon Mozee run for 4 yds to the M-OH 29Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
56.4%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-6
57.8%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Darius Alexander for a loss of 6 yards to the M-OH 23Similar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
59.9%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:0760% → 58%
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+23
60.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 23 yds to the TOL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
63.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Zy'marion Lang for 4 yds to the TOL 49Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-5
63.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for a loss of 5 yards to the TOL 44Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 11
OWN 44
0
60.0%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
58.4%
Emilio Duran punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:4343% → 44%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-4
56.8%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Darius Alexander for a loss of 4 yards to the M-OH 13Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 14
OWN 13
+7
57.3%
Jordan Brunson run for 7 yds to the M-OH 20Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+12
58.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 12 yds to the M-OH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
55.6%
Kevin Davis run for 1 yd to the M-OH 33Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-3
56.0%
Keyon Mozee run for a loss of 3 yards to the M-OH 30Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+10
57.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 10 yds to the M-OH 40Similar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
55.6%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:5659% → 55%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
59.0%
Sevaughn Clark run for a loss of 2 yards to the TOL 8Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+5
58.3%
Tucker Gleason run for 5 yds to the TOL 13Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 7
OWN 13
-11
56.9%
Tucker Gleason sacked by Adam Trick for a loss of 11 yards to the TOL 2Similar
Q3 1:59
4TH & 18
OWN 2
+7
55.4%
Emilio Duran punt for 38 yds , Cade McDonald returns for 7 yds to the TOL 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16TD
4 plays · 33 yds · 1:2551% → 52%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
49.4%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+2
49.5%
Jordan Brunson run for 2 yds to the TOL 31Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+22
51.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 22 yds to the TOL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
48.4%
Kevin Davis 9 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Dom Dzioban Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:5259% → 64%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.1%
Connor Walendzak run for 4 yds to the TOL 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
59.6%
Connor Walendzak run for 5 yds to the TOL 34Similar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
60.1%
Tucker Gleason run for 1 yd to the TOL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
59.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 25 yds to the M-OH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+32
64.1%
Connor Walendzak run for 32 yds to the M-OH 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
65.3%
Connor Walendzak run for 2 yds to the M-OH 6Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
65.3%
Tucker Gleason run for 5 yds to the M-OH 1Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.5%
Anthony Torres 1 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:4646% → 56%
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 9 yds to the M-OH 34Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
51.3%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
52.6%
Keyon Mozee run for 5 yds to the M-OH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
51.3%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
52.0%
Brett Gabbert run for 4 yds to the M-OH 43Similar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+9
51.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 9 yds to the TOL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
48.6%
Brett Gabbert run for no gain to the TOL 48Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+23
48.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 23 yds to the TOL 25Similar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
46.0%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
46.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 5 yds to the TOL 20Similar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+7
46.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kam Perry for 7 yds to the TOL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
43.9%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
43.9%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+10
46.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 10 yds to the TOL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
43.8%
Javon Tracy 3 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Dom Dzioban Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19INT
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:4548% → 58%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
52.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 14 yds to the M-OH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
48.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kam Perry for 8 yds to the M-OH 47Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+4
45.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 4 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
45.5%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
46.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+14
48.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 14 yds to the TOL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
43.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 6 yds to the TOL 29Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+9
42.6%
Toledo Penalty, Personal Foul (Braden Awls) to the TOL 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-39
42.4%
Brett Gabbert pass intercepted Braden Awls return for 39 yds to the TOL 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:5663% → 57%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
62.8%
Connor Walendzak run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 5
50
+2
63.2%
Connor Walendzak run for 2 yds to the M-OH 48Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+1
62.5%
Connor Walendzak run for 1 yd to the M-OH 47Similar
Q4 0:24
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+5
57.1%
Tucker Gleason run for 5 yds to the M-OH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+42.9
TD · Q4 5:46
Javon Tracy 3 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Dom Dzioban Kick)
-3.1
TD · Q3 0:24
Kevin Davis 9 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Dom Dzioban Kick)
-2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com