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M-OH

Miami (OH) 3 at Notre Dame 28

ND
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:04 · Alec Bevelhimer punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 76Pregame prior+30.8Home team on offense+3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor−0.5Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:33: Riley Leonard run for 8 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — ND win probability +4.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:05: Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 38 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — ND win probability +4.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:17: Jeremiyah Love run for 15 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — ND win probability +5.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:26: Timeout Notre Dame, clock 02:26 — ND win probability +2.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:11: Jeremiyah Love run for 10 yds to the ND 41 for a 1ST down — ND win probability +2.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 6M-OH made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 11:53M-OH 4th & 12 at M-OH 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:37ND 4th & 4 at ND 10, tied
    Close callPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:49M-OH 4th & 6 at ND 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:48ND 4th & 8 at M-OH 33, tied
    Close callWent for it · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    91.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:32M-OH 4th & 8 at ND 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:29ND 4th & 7 at ND 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:37M-OH 4th & 12 at M-OH 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:04M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:04M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 23, down 11
    Close callPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:28ND 4th & 7 at ND 45, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:29M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:53ND 4th & 10 at ND 46, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:20M-OH 4th & 22 at ND 31, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.7
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:39ND 4th & 1 at midfield, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.0%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:05M-OH 4th & 8 at M-OH 27, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 3:33ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:05ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:17ND Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:39ND Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:055% → 5%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 7 yds to the M-OH 32Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
95.3%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
95.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 9 yds to the M-OH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-14
95.1%
Brett Gabbert sacked for a loss of 14 yards to the M-OH 27 Brett Gabbert fumbled, recovered by M-OH Keyon Mozee , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 24
OWN 27
+12
95.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 12 yds to the M-OH 39Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 12
OWN 39
0
94.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 12
OWN 39
+35
94.8%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 35 yds , Jordan Faison returns for no gain to the ND 26 , returns for no gain to the ND 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2INT
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:415% → 6%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
94.7%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+21
94.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 21 yds to the ND 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.5%
Brett Gabbert pass intercepted Junior Tuihalamaka return for no gain to the ND 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:1595% → 94%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
94.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the ND 6Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 8
OWN 6
-3
94.4%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Sam Pendleton) to the ND 3Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 11
OWN 3
+6
94.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds to the ND 9Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 5
OWN 9
+1
94.1%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the ND 10Similar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 4
OWN 10
0
93.9%
James Rendell punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4DOWNS
13 plays · 27 yds · 4:466% → 7%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
93.9%
Jordan Brunson run for 2 yds to the M-OH 39Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+11
93.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
50
+7
93.5%
Keyon Mozee run for 7 yds to the ND 43Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-5
93.2%
Miami (OH) Penalty, False Start (Will Jados) to the ND 48Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+8
93.1%
Keyon Mozee run for 8 yds to the ND 40 Keyon Mozee fumbled, recovered by M-OH Reid Holskey R. Holskey return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
92.8%
Dylan Downing run for 5 yds to the ND 35Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+3
92.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 3 yds to the ND 32Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 2
OPP 32
-4
92.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the ND 36Similar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 6
OPP 36
0
92.6%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
92.8%
(03:45) LEONARD, Riley pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for EVANS, Mitchell thrown to the MIA30, clock 03:39. PENALTY MIA Pass Interference on SALOPEK, Matt enforced 15 yards to the MIA49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:5193% → 92%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
93.0%
Jadarian Price run for 14 yds to the M-OH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
92.9%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
92.9%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-10
92.7%
(02:51) LEONARD, Riley scrambles to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the MIA27 (HONDRU, Corban), out of bounds, clock 02:41. PENALTY UND Holding on PENDLETON, Sam enforced 10 yards from the MIA35 to the MIA45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 20
OPP 45
+12
92.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 12 yds to the M-OH 33Similar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 8
OPP 33
0
92.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 4:058% → 12%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
91.7%
Jordan Brunson run for 2 yds to the M-OH 35Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+14
91.4%
Brett Gabbert run for 14 yds to the M-OH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
90.8%
Kevin Davis run for 20 yds to the ND 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
89.5%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
89.5%
Keyon Mozee run for 11 yds to the ND 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
89.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kam Perry for 13 yds to the ND 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+4
88.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 4 yds to the ND 8Similar
Q2 13:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
88.6%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
88.5%
Miami (OH) Penalty, False Start (Reggie Virgil) to the ND 12Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
88.4%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
88.1%
Dom Dzioban 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4788% → 88%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
88.2%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the ND 9Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 7
OWN 9
-3
87.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 3 yards to the ND 6Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 10
OWN 6
+3
87.2%
Devyn Ford run for 3 yds to the ND 9Similar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 7
OWN 9
+10
88.2%
James Rendell punt for 54 yds , Cade McDonald returns for 10 yds to the M-OH 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4514% → 13%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
86.4%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-3
86.4%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Howard Cross III for a loss of 3 yards to the M-OH 44Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 13
OWN 44
-5
87.3%
Miami (OH) Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Reggie Virgil) to the M-OH 39Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 18
OWN 39
+6
87.2%
Keyon Mozee run for 6 yds to the M-OH 45Similar
Q2 8:37
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
87.1%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 4:5787% → 91%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
87.2%
Jadarian Price run for 8 yds to the ND 21Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+3
86.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 3 yds to the ND 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
86.1%
Jadarian Price run for 8 yds to the ND 32Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+6
86.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 6 yds to the ND 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
86.9%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
86.6%
(06:14) PRICE, Jadarian rush to the left for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA49 (FRAZIER, Savio;UGWU, Brian), clock 06:09. PENALTY MIA Personal Foul on UGWU, Brian enforced 15 yards from the MIA47 to the MIA32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
87.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for 9 yds to the M-OH 23Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+5
86.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 5 yds to the M-OH 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
86.6%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the M-OH 13Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+5
86.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 5 yds to the M-OH 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
90.9%
Riley Leonard run for 8 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:279% → 8%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
91.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 16 yds to the M-OH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
90.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
91.4%
Dylan Downing run for 6 yds to the M-OH 47Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
90.6%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 4
OWN 47
-5
91.3%
Miami (OH) Penalty, False Start (Oscar McWood) to the M-OH 42Similar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
91.7%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 0:5690% → 95%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
90.0%
Jeremiyah Love run for 8 yds to the ND 27Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 2
OWN 27
0
90.3%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+21
89.7%
Riley Leonard run for 21 yds to the ND 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
90.8%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+14
90.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 14 yds to the M-OH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
95.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 38 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12END OF HALF
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:505% → 7%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.0%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Boubacar Traore for a loss of 1 yard to the M-OH 24Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
94.9%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
95.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+15
95.1%
Notre Dame Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Adon Shuler) to the M-OH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
94.7%
Dylan Downing run for 5 yds to the M-OH 44Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+7
92.8%
Brett Gabbert run for 7 yds to the ND 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
92.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 61 yds · 1:3493% → 93%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.7%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the ND 28Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
92.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 9 yds to the ND 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
92.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Raridon for 6 yds to the ND 43Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+43
93.0%
Riley Leonard run for 43 yds to the M-OH 14 Riley Leonard fumbled, recovered by M-OH Luke Evans L. Evans return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:048% → 8%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
92.1%
Keyon Mozee run for 3 yds to the M-OH 17Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+6
92.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 6 yds to the M-OH 23Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 1
OWN 23
0
92.0%
Jordan Brunson run for no gain to the M-OH 23Similar
Q3 11:04
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
92.3%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 51 yds, downed at the ND 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:2792% → 91%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
91.6%
Jadarian Price run for no gain to the ND 26Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
91.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 5 yds to the ND 31Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+11
91.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 11 yds to the ND 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
92.2%
Jadarian Price run for 1 yd to the ND 43Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-5
92.1%
Riley Leonard sacked by Brian Ugwu for a loss of 5 yards to the ND 38Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 14
OWN 38
+7
91.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 7 yds to the ND 45Similar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
91.0%
James Rendell punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
90.9%
Brett Gabbert pass intercepted Christian Gray return for no gain to the ND 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:0092% → 98%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
92.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for 7 yds to the ND 47Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+4
92.1%
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the M-OH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
92.1%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the M-OH 44Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+15
92.3%
(05:37) LEONARD, Riley pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for MITCHELL, Kris thrown to the MIA5, clock 05:32. PENALTY MIA Pass Interference on EVANS, Luke enforced 15 yards to the MIA29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
92.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the M-OH 27Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
92.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+12
92.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 12 yds to the M-OH 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
98.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for 15 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:464% → 4%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.2%
Jordan Brunson run for 2 yds to the M-OH 27Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
96.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
96.3%
(03:31) GABBERT, Brett pass short up the middle incomplete intended for COLDIRON, Jack broken up by HEARD II, Rod at the MIA31, clock 03:26. PENALTY UND Pass Interference on HEARD II, Rod enforced at the spot of the foul for 7 yards to the MIA34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
95.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Preston Daniel for 5 yds to the M-OH 39Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
95.9%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
96.0%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
96.0%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:3399% → 99%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
98.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 2 yds to the ND 24Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+8
98.6%
Jadarian Price run for 8 yds to the ND 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
98.7%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Sam Pendleton) to the ND 27Similar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+10
98.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 10 yds to the ND 37Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+9
98.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 9 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
98.9%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.0%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
98.9%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
98.8%
James Rendell punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20MISSED FG
16 plays · 59 yds · 6:264% → 3%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
96.5%
Keyon Mozee run for 1 yd to the M-OH 11Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+12
96.6%
Jordan Brunson run for 12 yds to the M-OH 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
96.8%
Jordan Brunson run for 7 yds to the M-OH 30Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+5
96.6%
Jordan Brunson run for 5 yds to the M-OH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.7%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
96.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 9 yds to the M-OH 44Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+7
97.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Preston Daniel for 7 yds to the ND 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
97.0%
Jordan Brunson run for 2 yds to the ND 47Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+9
97.0%
Kevin Davis run for 9 yds to the ND 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
96.9%
Dylan Downing run for 4 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+15
96.4%
(09:14) GABBERT, Brett pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MCDONALD, Cade thrown to the UND7, clock 09:10. PENALTY UND Pass Interference on MICKEY, Jaden enforced 15 yards to the UND19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
96.4%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
96.5%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 10
OPP 19
-12
96.9%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Drayk Bowen for a loss of 12 yards to the ND 31Similar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 22
OPP 31
+49
97.2%
Dom Dzioban 49 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 2:32100% → 100%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
99.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 10 yds to the ND 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
99.6%
Riley Leonard run for 6 yds to the ND 47Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+1
99.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the ND 48Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+2
99.6%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 1
50
+50
99.9%
Riley Leonard run for 50 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:321% → 1%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Jordan Brunson run for no gain to the M-OH 25Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.5%
Jordan Brunson run for 2 yds to the M-OH 27Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.5%
Henry Hesson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.5%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 31 yds, downed at the ND 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23END OF GAME
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:26100% → 100%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.9%
Aneyas Williams run for 2 yds to the ND 49Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+4
99.9%
Devyn Ford run for 4 yds to the M-OH 47Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+4
99.9%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Deion Colzie for 4 yds to the M-OH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Steve Angeli pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
99.9%
Devyn Ford run for 5 yds to the M-OH 38Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+15
99.9%
(02:00) ANGELI, Steve pass to the right incomplete intended for HARRISON, Jayden thrown to the MIA31, clock 01:56. PENALTY MIA Roughing the Passer on MCCAIN, Malcolm enforced 15 yards from the MIA38 to the MIA23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
99.9%
Aneyas Williams run for 5 yds to the M-OH 18Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+2
99.9%
Devyn Ford run for 2 yds to the M-OH 16Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+7
99.9%
Devyn Ford run for 7 yds to the M-OH 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:17
Jeremiyah Love run for 15 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
+5.9
TD · Q2 3:33
Riley Leonard run for 8 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
+4.6
TD · Q2 1:05
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 38 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com