2024 · Week 12 · Nov 13, 2024 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:40 · D.Dzioban 25 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-H.Powell, Holder-A.Bevelhimer.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:26: B.Gabbert pass complete. Catch made by J.Tracy for 34 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — M-OH win probability +1.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:57: K.Davis rushed for 6 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — M-OH win probability +3.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 9:48: K.Thomas rushed for yards. Tackled by MOH at KNT 14. PENALTY on MOH-B.Ugwu, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, accepted. No Play. — KENT win probability +0.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:14: K.Mozee rushed for 74 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — M-OH win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- FG · Q4 11:40: D.Dzioban 25 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-H.Powell, Holder-A.Bevelhimer. — M-OH win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 6 of 7KENT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 12:16M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snapGo for it96.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.0%average punt
- Q1 5:20M-OH 4th & 3 at KENT 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.7%53% to convertField goal94.6%−0.136% to makePunt94.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:24M-OH 4th & 7 at KENT 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.2% before the snapGo for it94.2%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call94.2%62% to makePunt93.8%−0.4average punt
- Q2 12:53KENT 4th & 7 at M-OH 23, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.3% before the snapGo for it7.2%−0.136% to convertField goalTheir call7.2%70% to makePunt6.4%−0.8average punt
- Q2 9:08KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 44, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snapGo for it5.9%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.0%average punt
- Q2 8:14M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 22, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snapGo for it93.1%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.2%average punt
- Q2 6:29KENT 4th & 7 at KENT 39, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snapGo for it6.2%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.3%average punt
- Q2 1:55KENT 4th & 8 at M-OH 39, down 10Close callPunted · 7.4% before the snapGo for it7.3%34% to convertField goal7.1%−0.136% to makePuntTheir call7.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:13M-OH 4th & 10 at KENT 31, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snapGo for it92.1%−0.629% to convertField goalTheir call92.7%54% to makePunt91.8%−0.9average punt
- Q3 8:17KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 33, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.9%−0.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.4%average punt
- Q3 2:54M-OH 4th & 5 at KENT 48, up 17Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snapGo for it97.0%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 1:02KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 30, down 17Close callPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%−0.3average punt
- Q4 11:40M-OH 4th & 7 at KENT 7, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snapGo for it99.0%−<0.128% to convertField goalTheir call99.1%91% to makePunt98.5%−0.6average punt
- Q4 10:16KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 26, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 0:28KENT 4th & 13 at M-OH 35, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−0.221% to convertField goal0.2%45% to makePunt0.0%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4KENT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 13:40KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.8%97% to makeGo for two3.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:20M-OH Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:26M-OH Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.4%97% to makeGo for two94.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:57M-OH Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.5%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:14M-OH Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartM-OHDrive 1FUMBLE3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0997% → 97%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.7%
B.Gabbert steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for K.Perry.Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.7%
B.Gabbert steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for R.Virgil. PENALTY on MOH-R.Virgil, Offensive Pass Interference, 12 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+12
96.7%
B.Gabbert pass complete. Catch made by K.Davis for 12 yards. K.Davis FUMBLES, forced by T.Tucker. Fumble RECOVERED by KNT-J.Baka at MOH 25.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2TD3 plays · 25 yds · 0:503% → 4%
M-OHDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2496% → 96%
KENTDrive 4INT8 plays · 43 yds · 3:404% → 5%
Q1 11:21
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+11
95.9%
T.Ulatowski pass complete. Catch made by D.Martin for 11 yards. Tackled by L.Evans at KNT 34.Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+14
95.3%
T.Ulatowski pass complete. Catch made by S.King for 14 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 48.Similar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
95.1%
T.Ulatowski rushed for 8 yards. Pushed out of bounds by L.Evans at MOH 40.Similar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
94.9%
T.Ulatowski pass INTERCEPTED at MOH 30. Intercepted by M.Salopek at MOH 30. Tackled by C.Skehan at MOH 31.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5TD1 play · 69 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
95.5%
B.Gabbert pass complete. Catch made by R.Virgil for 69 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6FG10 plays · 42 yds · 3:3395% → 95%
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+23
95.2%
B.Gabbert pass complete. Catch made by J.Tracy for 23 yards. Tackled by J.Baka at KNT 46.Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 3
OPP 39
0
95.0%
B.Gabbert steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for R.Virgil.Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 3
OPP 39
0
95.0%
B.Gabbert steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for R.Virgil.Similar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+9
94.9%
B.Gabbert pass complete. Catch made by J.Tracy for 9 yards. Pushed out of bounds by J.Studio at KNT 30.Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
94.5%
B.Gabbert steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for R.Virgil.Similar
Q1 3:24
4TH & 7
OPP 27
0
94.6%
D.Dzioban 45 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-H.Powell, Holder-A.Bevelhimer.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7MISSED FG15 plays · 55 yds · 5:215% → 7%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
94.6%
T.Ulatowski steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for C.McCray.Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
94.6%
T.Ulatowski steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for C.Muldowney.Similar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+10
93.8%
T.Ulatowski pass complete. Catch made by C.McCray for 10 yards. Pushed out of bounds by W.Hardrick at KNT 50.Similar
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
93.2%
T.Ulatowski steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for. PENALTY on MOH-W.Hardrick, Defensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
92.9%
T.Ulatowski steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for L.Floriea.Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
92.9%
T.Ulatowski scrambles for 3 yards. Pushed out of bounds by K.Hilton at MOH 23.Similar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 7
OPP 23
0
92.9%
W.Hryszko 41 yard field goal attempt is no good, Center-R.Atha, Holder-J.Smith.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8TD3 plays · 77 yds · 1:2493% → 95%
KENTDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 2:106% → 6%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
94.1%
T.Ulatowski pass complete. Catch made by L.Floriea for 17 yards. Tackled by E.Blakey at KNT 42.Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-1
93.7%
T.Ulatowski steps back to pass. Sacked at KNT 44 for -1 yards (B.Ugwu).Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
93.8%
T.Ulatowski steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for S.King.Similar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 8
OWN 44
+40
94.1%
J.Smith punts 40 yards to MOH 16, Center-R.Atha. Fair catch by K.Davis.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4794% → 93%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
93.8%
B.Gabbert steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Coldiron.Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+6
93.7%
B.Gabbert pass complete. Catch made by K.Davis for 6 yards. K.Davis ran out of bounds.Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 4
OWN 22
0
93.5%
B.Gabbert steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for K.Perry.Similar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 4
OWN 22
+42
93.4%
A.Bevelhimer punts 42 yards to KNT 36, Center-H.Powell. Fair catch by L.Floriea.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:356% → 6%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
93.6%
T.Ulatowski pass complete. Catch made by C.McCray for -3 yards. C.McCray ran out of bounds.Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
93.5%
T.Ulatowski steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for C.McCray.Similar
Q2 6:29
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+37
93.8%
J.Smith punts 37 yards to MOH 24, Center-R.Atha. Fair catch by K.Davis.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 2:527% → 7%
M-OHDrive 13MISSED FG10 plays · 58 yds · 1:3193% → 93%
Q2 1:01
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+23
93.0%
K.Mozee rushed for 23 yards. Pushed out of bounds by J.Baka at MOH 35.Similar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
93.2%
B.Gabbert pass complete. Catch made by R.Virgil for 19 yards. R.Virgil ran out of bounds.Similar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
93.6%
B.Gabbert steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for R.Virgil.Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+15
93.6%
B.Gabbert pass complete. Catch made by A.Johnson for 15 yards. Tackled by KNT at KNT 31.Similar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
93.6%
B.Gabbert steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for R.Virgil.Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
93.6%
B.Gabbert steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for K.Perry.Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 10
OPP 31
0
92.7%
MOH 49 yard field goal attempt is no good, Center-H.Powell, Holder-A.Bevelhimer.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14TD7 plays · 60 yds · 3:5193% → 97%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
93.4%
B.Gabbert pass complete. Catch made by J.Tracy for 10 yards. Tackled by C.Williams at KNT 33.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 1:314% → 4%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
96.0%
K.Thomas rushed for yards. Tackled by MOH at KNT 14. PENALTY on MOH-B.Ugwu, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+3
95.9%
T.Ulatowski scrambles for 3 yards. Pushed out of bounds by C.Hondru at KNT 33.Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
95.9%
T.Ulatowski steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for L.Floriea.Similar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 6
OWN 33
+42
96.1%
J.Smith punts 42 yards to MOH 25, Center-R.Atha. Fair catch by K.Davis.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16PUNT10 plays · 27 yds · 5:1597% → 97%
KENTDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:473% → 3%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
96.7%
T.Ulatowski pass complete. Catch made by S.King for 7 yards. Tackled by W.Hardrick at KNT 30.Similar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
96.6%
T.Ulatowski scrambles for 0 yards. Pushed out of bounds by K.Hilton at KNT 30.Similar
Q3 1:02
4TH & 3
OWN 30
+45
96.8%
J.Smith punts 45 yards to MOH 25, Center-R.Atha. Fair catch by K.Davis.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:4197% → 99%
M-OHDrive 19FG6 plays · 15 yds · 3:0599% → 100%
KENTDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:240% → 0%
M-OHDrive 21FUMBLE9 plays · 38 yds · 6:06100% → 100%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
99.9%
J.Brunson rushed for 2 yards. J.Brunson FUMBLES, forced by K.Johns. Fumble RECOVERED by KNT-C.Robinson at KNT 32.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22Uncategorized10 plays · 33 yds · 2:470% → 0%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
100.0%
R.Tomlinson rushed for 10 yards. Tackled by K.Martin at KNT 42.Similar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
100.0%
R.Tomlinson steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for C.McCray.Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
100.0%
R.Tomlinson scrambles for 1 yards. Tackled by J.Pons at KNT 43. PENALTY on MOH-J.Pons, Personal Foul / Defense, 15 yards, accepted.Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 13
OPP 45
0
100.0%
R.Tomlinson steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for L.Floriea.Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 13
OPP 45
+13
100.0%
R.Tomlinson scrambles for 13 yards. Pushed out of bounds by M.McMain at MOH 32.Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 9
OPP 31
-1
99.9%
R.Tomlinson steps back to pass. Sacked at MOH 32 for -1 yards (C.McKinney).Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 10
OPP 32
-3
100.0%
KNT rushed for -3 yards. KNT FUMBLES. Fumble RECOVERED by KNT-R.Tomlinson at MOH 35. Tackled by MOH at MOH 35.Similar
Q4 0:28
4TH & 13
OPP 35
0
100.0%
R.Tomlinson pass complete. Catch made by C.McCray for 25 yards. PENALTY on KNT-C.McCray, Illegal Touch Pass, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:57
K.Davis rushed for 6 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
+3.7
TD · Q3 0:14
K.Mozee rushed for 74 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
+1.9
TD · Q2 11:26
B.Gabbert pass complete. Catch made by J.Tracy for 34 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
+1.3