2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreM-OH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:38 · Alec Bevelhimer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the NU 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 9:42: Mike Wright run for 13 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK) — NU win probability +16.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 7:28: Dom Dzioban 26 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +6.0 pts (now 20%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 7:17: Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the NU 35 — NU win probability +7.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:49: Brett Gabbert run for 4 yds to the M-OH 31 — M-OH win probability +6.8 pts (now 14%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:53: Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the NU 28 — NU win probability +14.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6M-OH made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 11:53NU 4th & 11 at M-OH 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snapGo for it60.7%−0.127% to convertField goal60.7%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call60.8%average punt
- Q1 9:41M-OH 4th & 14 at M-OH 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snapGo for it38.7%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.0%average punt
- Q1 7:21NU 4th & 10 at M-OH 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.7% before the snapGo for it60.6%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call60.7%60% to makePunt59.9%−0.8average punt
- Q1 1:23M-OH 4th & 9 at NU 25, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.4% before the snapGo for it38.4%−0.231% to convertField goalTheir call38.5%66% to makePunt36.0%−2.5average punt
- Q2 11:49M-OH 4th & 16 at NU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snapGo for it39.1%−0.916% to convertField goalTheir call39.9%51% to makePunt39.4%−0.5average punt
- Q2 9:43NU 4th & 14 at NU 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snapGo for it58.4%−1.018% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.4%average punt
- Q2 7:38M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snapGo for it39.9%−0.438% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.3%average punt
- Q3 14:03M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snapGo for it42.4%−1.048% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.4%average punt
- Q3 4:29M-OH 4th & 9 at NU 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snapGo for it26.0%−0.832% to convertField goal24.5%−2.323% to makePuntTheir call26.8%average punt
- Q4 14:47NU 4th & 10 at M-OH 20, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.8% before the snapGo for it80.8%−1.928% to convertField goalTheir call82.7%75% to makePunt73.5%−9.2average punt
- Q4 11:12NU 4th & 21 at NU 22, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snapGo for it81.6%−3.68% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.2%average punt
- Q4 7:28M-OH 4th & 3 at NU 7, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 11.5% before the snapGo for it11.6%46% to convertField goalTheir call11.0%−0.691% to makePunt6.0%−5.6average punt
- Q4 2:56NU 4th & 2 at M-OH 27, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 93.0% before the snapGo for it92.6%57% to convertField goalTheir call91.9%−0.862% to makePunt88.4%−4.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q3 9:42NU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.9%97% to makeGo for two70.8%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNUDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 31 yds · 3:0457% → 57%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
57.2%
Mike Wright pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 20 yds to the NU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+8
57.4%
Mike Wright pass complete to Frank Covey IV for 8 yds to the M-OH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
57.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to A.J. Henning for a loss of 4 yards to the M-OH 47Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+3
57.4%
Mike Wright pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 3 yds to the M-OH 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0243% → 42%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
57.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 5 yds to the M-OH 17Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+7
57.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 7 yds to the M-OH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 6
OWN 28
-8
57.6%
Miami (OH) Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Brett Gabbert) to the M-OH 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3FG5 plays · 20 yds · 2:1658% → 58%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-6
58.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Frank Covey IV for a loss of 6 yards to the M-OH 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4FG14 plays · 56 yds · 5:4141% → 43%
Q1 5:52
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+13
59.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 13 yds to the M-OH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
58.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 5 yds to the M-OH 44Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-5
58.1%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Mac Uihlein for a loss of 5 yards to the M-OH 39Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+23
59.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 23 yds to the NU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
58.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 12 yds to the NU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5FUMBLE6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1758% → 59%
M-OHDrive 6MISSED FG6 plays · 6 yds · 2:0645% → 42%
NUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 2:0060% → 59%
M-OHDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0042% → 42%
NUDrive 9FUMBLE11 plays · 59 yds · 5:1461% → 62%
Q2 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+6
61.7%
Mike Wright pass complete to A.J. Henning for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
62.5%
Mike Wright pass complete to Frank Covey IV for 16 yds to the M-OH 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.4%
Mike Wright run for no gain to the M-OH 1 Mike Wright fumbled, recovered by M-OH Matt Salopek M. Salopek return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10END OF HALF9 plays · 33 yds · 2:0444% → 45%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
55.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 9 yds to the M-OH 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4845% → 44%
Q3 14:03
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+14
56.2%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 45 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 14 yds to the NU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12TD8 plays · 62 yds · 4:0360% → 76%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
59.8%
Mike Wright pass complete to A.J. Henning for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
61.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to A.J. Henning for 5 yds to the M-OH 41Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+25
60.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 25 yds to the M-OH 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13PUNT9 plays · 39 yds · 5:0229% → 27%
Q3 8:52
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+15
71.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 15 yds to the M-OH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 3
OWN 41
-6
68.8%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Najee Story for a loss of 6 yards to the M-OH 35Similar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+18
72.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 18 yds to the NU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
68.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Dylan Downing for 3 yds to the NU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14FG11 plays · 77 yds · 4:3776% → 84%
Q3 3:39
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+14
76.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 14 yds to the NU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+33
77.2%
Mike Wright pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 33 yds to the M-OH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+10
80.9%
WRIGHT, Mike pass to the left incomplete intended for JOHNSON II, Calvin broken up by STRADER, Raion at the MOH33, clock 01:51. PENALTY MOH Holding on STRADER, Raion enforced 10 yards from the MOH46 to the MOH36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+9
83.8%
Mike Wright pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for 9 yds to the M-OH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15INT6 plays · 25 yds · 2:0016% → 17%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
84.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Dylan Downing for 10 yds to the M-OH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+16
84.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 10
50
0
83.0%
Brett Gabbert pass intercepted Evan Smith return for no gain to the NU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT6 plays · -11 yds · 1:2786% → 84%
Q4 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-10
85.5%
(12:33) HIMON II, Joseph rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the NWN35 (WISE, Ty), clock 12:34. PENALTY NWN Holding on HERZOG, Nick enforced 10 yards from the NWN33 to the NWN23 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 21
OWN 22
0
84.2%
Luke Akers punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17FG9 plays · 62 yds · 3:4116% → 20%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
84.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 10 yds to the M-OH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+24
85.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 24 yds to the NU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+15
83.5%
Northwestern Penalty, Roughing the Passer on SAKA, Anto enforced (Anto Saka) to the NU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
84.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 4 yds to the NU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18MISSED FG8 plays · 39 yds · 4:2188% → 93%
M-OHDrive 19INT7 plays · 38 yds · 1:5214% → 20%
Q4 2:15
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+11
85.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Andre Johnson for 11 yds to the M-OH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
85.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 12 yds to the NU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
83.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 10 yds to the NU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
82.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Dylan Downing for 1 yd to the NU 35Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
80.4%
Brett Gabbert pass intercepted Robert Fitzgerald return for no gain to the NU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20END OF GAME5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0895% → 97%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:42
Mike Wright run for 13 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)
+16
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:53
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the NU 28
+14.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:17
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the NU 35
+7.4