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TOL

Toledo 21 at Miami (OH) 17

M-OH
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:31 · Alec Bevelhimer punt for 53 yds , Devin Maddox returns for no gain to the TOL 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 167Home team on offense−16.1Score differential−1.3Garbage-time factor−6.0Pregame prior−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:33: Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 20 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK) — TOL win probability +12.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:13: Kenny Tracy run for 2 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +10.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:19: Rashad Amos run for 2 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +18.3 pts (now 41%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:33: Aveon Smith run for 2 yds to the M-OH 38 — M-OH win probability +15.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:20: run for 3 yds to the TOL 44 — TOL win probability +21.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 9TOL made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 12:34M-OH 4th & 5 at TOL 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    46.4%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:16TOL 4th & 6 at M-OH 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    52.8%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:23M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:26M-OH 4th & 3 at TOL 3, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.8%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    37.0%−6.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:26TOL 4th & 4 at M-OH 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    53.7%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    52.8%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:50TOL 4th & 1 at M-OH 1, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    53.0%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−8.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:20M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 40, down 11
    Close callPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:08TOL 4th & 24 at TOL 22, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−4.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:08TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:11TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−1.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:11M-OH 4th & 1 at TOL 9, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    24.5%−2.9
    89% to make
    Punt
    16.1%−11.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:47TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−0.8
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:08M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 30, down 4
    Close callPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:35TOL 4th & 11 at M-OH 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−3.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:35M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 47, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.9 ptsPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%−4.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:12TOL 4th & 9 at M-OH 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:31M-OH 4th & 13 at M-OH 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−1.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:31M-OH 4th & 13 at M-OH 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−1.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:33TOL 4th & 15 at TOL 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−5.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:51TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:50TOL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:33TOL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:13M-OH Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:19M-OH Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:2643% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.2%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Gage LarvadainSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.2%
Brett Gabbert run for 2 yds to the M-OH 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+23
43.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
43.2%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+5
43.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 5 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
43.2%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
44.0%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the TOL 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:1856% → 55%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
43.9%
Peny Boone run for 14 yds to the TOL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
43.8%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the TOL 32Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+19
43.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 19 yds to the M-OH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
43.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan sacked for loss of 3 yards to the TOL48 (Ertl,Austin) PENALTY TOL Holding (Nwaogwugwu,David) 10 yards from MIA49 to TOL41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+2
43.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the TOL 43Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 18
OWN 43
+9
43.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 9 yds to the M-OH 48Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+3
43.7%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the M-OH 45Similar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
44.7%
Emilio Duran punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the M-OH 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:5345% → 45%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
44.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+11
44.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 11 yds to the M-OH 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
44.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 2 yds to the M-OH 23Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+2
44.8%
Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the M-OH 25Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
44.6%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Kevin DavisSimilar
Q1 7:23
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
44.6%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the TOL 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:3256% → 60%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
44.5%
PENALTY TOL False Start (Stephens,Larry) 5 yards from TOL41 to TOL36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+12
45.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 12 yds to the TOL 48Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+7
44.4%
Peny Boone run for 7 yds to the M-OH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
44.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 12 yds to the M-OH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
44.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 8 yds to the M-OH 25Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+13
44.0%
Dequan Finn run for 13 yds to the M-OH 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
44.0%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the M-OH 9Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+6
44.0%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the M-OH 6 for a 1ST down Miami (OH) Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacquez Warren) to the M-OH 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
44.0%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the M-OH 3Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
40.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 6:2542% → 45%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
41.9%
Rashad Amos run for 7 yds to the M-OH 32Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
42.5%
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the M-OH 34Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+15
42.2%
Rashad Amos run for 15 yds to the M-OH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
43.0%
Keyon Mozee run for 7 yds to the TOL 44 Keyon Mozee fumbled, recovered by M-OHSimilar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
43.3%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Gage LarvadainSimilar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+4
43.2%
Kenny Tracy run for 4 yds to the TOL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
42.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 12 yds to the TOL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
43.4%
Rashad Amos run for 6 yds to the TOL 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+13
43.4%
Rashad Amos run for 13 yds to the TOL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
43.4%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Nate MuerschSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
43.4%
Rashad Amos run for 6 yds to the TOL 3Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
42.7%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Joe Wilkins Jr.Similar
Q2 12:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
45.4%
Graham Nicholson 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 8:3656% → 67%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
44.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 7 yds to the TOL 32Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
43.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 10 yds to the TOL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
43.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 12 yds to the M-OH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
42.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 4 yds to the M-OH 42Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+5
42.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the M-OH 37Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 1
OPP 37
-10
42.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan rush left for 7 yards gain to the MIA30, out of bounds at MIA30 PENALTY TOL Holding (Torres,Anthony) 10 yards from MIA37 to MIA47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+11
43.5%
Dequan Finn run for 11 yds to the M-OH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
42.7%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the M-OH 32Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+2
42.0%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the M-OH 30Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
42.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+9
44.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 9 yds to the M-OH 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
42.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for 9 yds to the M-OH 12Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+5
42.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the M-OH 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
42.0%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the M-OH 11Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+10
42.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 10 yds to the M-OH 1Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
42.6%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the M-OH 1Similar
Q2 3:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.7%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:2532% → 31%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
31.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 11 yds to the M-OH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
32.3%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Joe Wilkins Jr.Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
32.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 4 yds to the M-OH 40Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
32.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q2 2:20
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+7
30.7%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 51 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 7 yds to the TOL 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 1:4769% → 86%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
31.5%
Peny Boone run for 7 yds to the TOL 23Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+17
31.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 17 yds to the TOL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
30.2%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the TOL 42Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+10
29.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass incomplete deep left to Vandeross III,Junior PENALTY MIA Holding (Strader,Raion) 10 yards from TOL42 to MIA48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
29.0%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jaden DottinSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
29.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 6 yds to the M-OH 42Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+15
29.0%
(01:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass incomplete deep right to Newton,Jerjuan PENALTY MIA Pass Interference (Strader,Raion) 15 yards from MIA42 to MIA27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
28.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jaden DottinSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+7
26.7%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the M-OH 20Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+20
14.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 20 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9END OF HALF
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3321% → 27%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
20.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 10 yds to the M-OH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
26.8%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Dallas Gant for a loss of 3 yards to the M-OH 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · -3 yds · 2:5283% → 84%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
17.4%
Peny Boone run for 7 yds to the TOL 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
17.2%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
17.6%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
16.9%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the TOL 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
16.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-16
16.9%
Dequan Finn sacked by Matt Salopek for a loss of 16 yards to the TOL 22Similar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 24
OWN 22
+14
16.5%
Emilio Duran punt for 30 yds , Cade McDonald returns for 14 yds to the TOL 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11TD
7 plays · 38 yds · 1:5519% → 30%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
19.4%
Brett Gabbert run for 4 yds to the TOL 34Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
19.9%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Joe Wilkins Jr.Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+15
19.2%
Shotgun Gabbert,Brett sacked for loss of 6 yards to the TOL40 (Taylor,Terrance) PENALTY TOL Personal Foul (Alexander,Darius) 15 yards from TOL34 to TOL19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
19.9%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Cade McDonaldSimilar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
19.7%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Kenny TracySimilar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+17
19.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 17 yds to the TOL 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
30.0%
Kenny Tracy run for 2 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0573% → 73%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
26.7%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the TOL 26Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
27.0%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
27.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jaden DottinSimilar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
26.8%
Emilio Duran punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13INT
4 plays · 32 yds · 1:2526% → 29%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
25.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 6 yds to the M-OH 41Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+9
27.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
50
+17
27.9%
Brett Gabbert run for 17 yds to the TOL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
29.1%
Brett Gabbert pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:3275% → 75%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
24.8%
Peny Boone run for 7 yds to the TOL 31Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 3
OWN 31
0
24.2%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the TOL 31Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
24.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 3
OWN 31
-5
25.5%
PENALTY TOL False Start (Ollison II,Damon) 5 yards from TOL31 to TOL26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:11
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
25.4%
Emilio Duran punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 4:5224% → 41%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+43
24.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 43 yds to the TOL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
28.6%
Brett Gabbert run for no gain to the TOL 33Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+15
28.4%
Shotgun Gabbert,Brett pass incomplete deep left to Larvadain,Gage broken up by McDonald Jr.,Chris PENALTY TOL Pass Interference (McDonald Jr.,Chris) 15 yards from TOL33 to TOL18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-9
28.6%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Adrian Woliver for a loss of 9 yards to the TOL 27Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 19
OPP 27
0
27.6%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Cade McDonaldSimilar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 19
OPP 27
+18
25.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 18 yds to the TOL 9Similar
Q3 6:11
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+8
26.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 8 yds to the TOL 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.6%
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the TOL 2Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
28.6%
Brett Gabbert run for no gain to the TOL 2Similar
Q3 1:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.3%
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3266% → 65%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
33.7%
Peny Boone run for 6 yds to the TOL 31Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
31.4%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the TOL 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
32.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Anthony TorresSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
34.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17PUNT
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q4 14:47
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
35.5%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Gage LarvadainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18PUNT
3 plays · 32 yds · 1:3936% → 34%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
36.2%
Kenny Tracy run for 2 yds to the M-OH 26Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+4
36.5%
Kevin Davis run for 4 yds to the M-OH 30Similar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
33.9%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 49 yds , Devin Maddox returns for no gain to the TOL 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 4:3367% → 70%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
32.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 9 yds to the TOL 30Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 1
OWN 30
0
30.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jaden DottinSimilar
Q4 13:08
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+4
31.5%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the TOL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
31.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 7 yds to the TOL 41Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 3
OWN 41
-4
29.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Stuart,Jacquez rush right for 4 yards gain to the TOL45 (Wise,Ty) PENALTY MIA Personal Foul offsetting TOL Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+3
29.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the TOL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
29.7%
Peny Boone run for 10 yds to the M-OH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
28.7%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the M-OH 47Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
29.2%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Dalton AndrewsSimilar
Q4 13:08
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
30.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Anthony TorresSimilar
Q4 8:35
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
30.0%
Emilio Duran punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:0035% → 35%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
34.8%
Rashad Amos run for 4 yds to the M-OH 27Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+1
35.3%
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the M-OH 28Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+11
33.7%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 11 yds to the M-OH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
37.1%
Kenny Tracy run for 6 yds to the M-OH 45Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
39.4%
Kenny Tracy run for 2 yds to the M-OH 47Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
38.6%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Gage LarvadainSimilar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
35.0%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 2:2374% → 78%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
25.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 7 yds to the TOL 27Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+24
23.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 24 yds to the M-OH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
21.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for 4 yds to the TOL 47Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 14
OWN 47
+5
24.0%
Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the M-OH 48Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
22.2%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q4 4:12
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
21.9%
Emilio Duran punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Matt Salopek at the M-OH 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:4130% → 25%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
29.7%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Joe Wilkins Jr.Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
29.0%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Joe Wilkins Jr.Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+3
27.5%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Kevin Davis for 3 yds to the M-OH 8Similar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 13
OWN 8
0
24.8%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 53 yds , returns for no gain to the TOL 35Similar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 13
OWN 8
0
24.8%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 53 yds , Devin Maddox returns for no gain to the TOL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23FUMBLE
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:5881% → 82%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
19.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the TOL 23Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
20.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the TOL 23Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+3
17.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 3 yds to the TOL 20Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
17.9%
Emilio Duran punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the M-OH 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:1334% → 30%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
33.5%
Aveon Smith run for 2 yds to the M-OH 38Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-5
37.3%
Aveon Smith sacked by Adrian Woliver for a loss of 5 yards to the M-OH 33Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+15
33.2%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 15 yds to the M-OH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
29.7%
Aveon Smith run for 5 yds to the TOL 47 Aveon Smith fumbled, recovered by TOL Deshawn HoltSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:2092% → 96%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
7.8%
run for 3 yds to the TOL 44Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+3
7.8%
run for 3 yds to the TOL 41Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 16
OWN 41
+3
4.5%
run for 3 yds to the TOL 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:20
run for 3 yds to the TOL 44
-21.8
TD · Q3 1:19
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
+18.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:33
Aveon Smith run for 2 yds to the M-OH 38
+15.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com