Try the model
M-OH

Miami (OH) 9 at App State 13

APP
2023 · Avocados From Mexico Cure Bowl · Dec 16, 2023 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:09 · Alec Bevelhimer punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore differential
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Pregame prior+11.6Home team on offense−0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Blowout margin+0.1Score differential−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:46: Joey Aguilar run for 9 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +13.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:05: Rashad Amos run for 23 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson PAT MISSED) — M-OH win probability +21.4 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:45: Henry Hesson run for no gain to the APP 49 — M-OH win probability +11.8 pts (now 36%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:53: Anderson Castle run for a loss of 3 yards to the APP 26 — APP win probability +7.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:34: Anderson Castle run for 2 yds to the APP 44 — APP win probability +19.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 7 of 8M-OH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:50M-OH 4th & 10 at APP 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:31APP 4th & 5 at M-OH 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:09M-OH 4th & 10 at APP 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    34.8%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:14APP 4th & 5 at M-OH 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:49APP 4th & 1 at M-OH 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    64.3%−2.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:59APP 4th & 2 at M-OH 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    66.3%−0.8
    80% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:59M-OH 4th & 13 at APP 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:10APP 4th & 7 at APP 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:28APP 4th & 1 at M-OH 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.9%−0.5
    77% to make
    Punt
    62.1%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:28M-OH 4th & 2 at APP 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    33.9%−1.6
    60% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−8.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:58M-OH 4th & 11 at M-OH 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:11APP 4th & 11 at APP 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−2.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:25M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−1.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:01M-OH 4th & 6 at APP 45, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    26.5%−3.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:50APP 4th & 1 at APP 38, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%−3.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 1 of 1M-OH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 4:46APP Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 2:05M-OH Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APPDrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
64.2%
Joey Aguilar pass intercepted Yahsyn McKee return for no gain to the APP 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2FG
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:4836% → 36%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+24
64.1%
Rashad Amos run for 24 yds to the APP 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
64.0%
Rashad Amos run for a loss of 3 yards to the APP 20Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 13
OPP 20
+3
63.9%
Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the APP 17Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
63.9%
Henry Hesson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+34
63.9%
Graham Nicholson 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 2:5364% → 64%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
63.8%
Kanye Roberts run for 3 yds to the APP 20Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+6
63.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 6 yds to the APP 26Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+5
63.7%
Castle, Anderson rush for no gain to the APP STATE26, PENALTY MIAMIOH offside 5 yards to the APP STATE31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN APP STATE.Similar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
63.7%
Anderson Castle run for no gain to the APP 31Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
63.6%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Makai JacksonSimilar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+52
63.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 52 yds to the M-OH 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
64.2%
Anderson Castle run for 7 yds to the M-OH 10Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 3
OPP 10
-2
64.2%
Anderson Castle run for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 12Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
63.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Christan HornSimilar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+29
64.3%
Michael Hughes 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 5:0637% → 37%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
63.4%
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the M-OH 42Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+4
63.2%
Rashad Amos run for 4 yds to the M-OH 46Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+5
63.1%
Rashad Amos run for 5 yds to the APP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
62.7%
Keyon Mozee run for 5 yds to the APP 44Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+7
62.6%
Rashad Amos run for 7 yds to the APP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
62.5%
Rashad Amos run for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 38Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-5
62.4%
Henry Hesson sacked by Santana Hopper for a loss of 5 yards to the APP 43Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 16
OPP 43
+6
63.1%
Henry Hesson pass complete to Cade McDonald for 6 yds to the APP 37Similar
Q1 4:09
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
63.2%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5FG
15 plays · 88 yds · 5:3563% → 65%
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+16
63.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 16 yds to the APP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
63.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 9 yds Makai Jackson fumbled, recovered by APP Makai JacksonSimilar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+1
63.9%
Kanye Roberts run for 1 yd to the APP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
63.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 20 yds to the M-OH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
64.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 10 yds to the M-OH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
64.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 14 yds to the M-OH 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-13
64.9%
Joey Aguilar sacked by Ty Wise for a loss of 13 yards to the M-OH 36 Joey Aguilar fumbled, recovered by APP Joey Aguilar , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 23
OPP 36
0
63.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Anderson CastleSimilar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 23
OPP 36
+26
63.3%
Anderson Castle run for 26 yds to the M-OH 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
64.9%
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the M-OH 6Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
65.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
64.3%
Kaedin Robinson run for 1 yd to the M-OH 5Similar
Q2 13:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
64.9%
Michael Hughes 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:0836% → 37%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.0%
Henry Hesson pass complete to Rashad Amos for 2 yds to the M-OH 27Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+28
63.9%
Rashad Amos run for 28 yds to the APP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
62.0%
Henry Hesson pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 2 yds to the APP 43Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-5
62.0%
Miami (OH) Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the APP 48Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 13
OPP 48
-2
62.9%
Rashad Amos run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line Rashad Amos fumbled, recovered by APP Nick Ross , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:5366% → 66%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
50
0
66.3%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 10
50
0
66.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Christan HornSimilar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 10
50
+9
64.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 9 yds to the M-OH 41Similar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+16
65.1%
Joey Aguilar run for 16 yds to the M-OH 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
66.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Anderson Castle for 7 yds to the M-OH 18Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 3
OPP 18
0
66.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+1
66.2%
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the M-OH 17Similar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 2
OPP 17
0
66.1%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 4:0036% → 35%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
64.2%
Appalachian State Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the M-OH 22Similar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 5
OWN 22
+8
63.6%
Rashad Amos run for 8 yds to the M-OH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
63.8%
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the M-OH 31Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-4
64.0%
Maddox Kopp run for a loss of 4 yards to the M-OH 27 Maddox Kopp fumbled, recovered by M-OH Maddox KoppSimilar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+28
65.4%
Maddox Kopp pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 28 yds to the APP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
61.5%
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the APP 43Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-5
61.6%
Rashad Amos run for a loss of 5 yards to the APP 48 Rashad Amos fumbled, recovered by M-OH TEAM fumbled, recovered by M-OH Maddox KoppSimilar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 13
OPP 48
0
63.8%
Maddox Kopp pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 13
OPP 48
0
65.1%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 1:3565% → 63%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
65.3%
Kanye Roberts run for 7 yds to the APP 21Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 3
OWN 21
0
65.5%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+5
64.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 5 yds to the APP 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
65.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 5 yds to the APP 31Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
65.6%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+3
64.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kanye Roberts for 3 yds to the APP 34Similar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 2
OWN 34
-5
64.2%
Appalachian State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the APP 29Similar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
63.2%
Mitchell Lake punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the M-OH 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:2635% → 36%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
64.9%
Rashad Amos run for 4 yds to the M-OH 28Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
64.3%
Rashad Amos run for no gain to the M-OH 28 Rashad Amos fumbled, recovered by APP Santana HopperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5269% → 67%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
68.8%
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the M-OH 24Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
68.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+5
67.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 5 yds to the M-OH 19Similar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
66.8%
Anderson Castle run for no gain to the M-OH 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
65.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the M-OH 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 4:2037% → 37%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
63.2%
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the M-OH 41Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+11
63.4%
Rashad Amos run for 11 yds to the APP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
61.9%
Rashad Amos run for no gain to the APP 48Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+12
62.2%
Rashad Amos run for 12 yds to the APP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
61.8%
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the APP 35Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+4
60.6%
Henry Hesson pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 4 yds to the APP 31Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+3
61.5%
Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the APP 28Similar
Q3 10:28
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+1
63.2%
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the APP 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 5:2466% → 84%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
66.2%
Kanye Roberts run for 14 yds to the APP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
68.6%
Kanye Roberts run for 2 yds to the APP 43Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+8
68.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 8 yds to the M-OH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
69.8%
Kanye Roberts run for 4 yds to the M-OH 45Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+14
70.0%
Kanye Roberts run for 14 yds to the M-OH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
71.1%
Anderson Castle run for 8 yds to the M-OH 23Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+4
71.2%
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the M-OH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
71.2%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
71.3%
Kanye Roberts run for 2 yds to the M-OH 17Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+8
70.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 8 yds to the M-OH 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
83.9%
Joey Aguilar run for 9 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3720% → 17%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-8
80.0%
Henry Hesson sacked by Montez Kelley for a loss of 8 yards to the M-OH 33Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 18
OWN 33
+7
81.9%
Rashad Amos run for 7 yds to the M-OH 40Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
82.1%
Henry Hesson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:58
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
83.0%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3783% → 84%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
82.7%
Kanye Roberts run for 3 yds to the APP 25Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-2
83.6%
Kanye Roberts run for a loss of 2 yards to the APP 23 Kanye Roberts fumbled, recovered by M-OH Matt SalopekSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17TD
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
62.2%
Rashad Amos run for 23 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:4471% → 70%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.3%
Anderson Castle run for 7 yds to the APP 32Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+5
72.7%
Anderson Castle run for 5 yds to the APP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
72.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
50
+1
74.6%
Joey Aguilar run for 1 yd to the M-OH 49Similar
Q4 14:32
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-2
74.7%
Isaiah Helms run for a loss of 2 yards to the APP 49 Isaiah Helms fumbled, recovered by APP Isaiah HelmsSimilar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 11
OWN 49
0
71.6%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
69.9%
Mitchell Lake punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1931% → 28%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
69.1%
Keyon Mozee run for 2 yds to the M-OH 22Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
69.4%
Henry Hesson pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 2 yds to the M-OH 24Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
70.8%
Henry Hesson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
72.0%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 48 yds, downed at the APP 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:5472% → 76%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
72.3%
Anderson Castle run for 6 yds to the APP 34Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+5
73.9%
Anderson Castle run for 5 yds to the APP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
73.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 10 yds to the APP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
75.5%
Isaiah Helms run for no gain to the APP 49 Isaiah Helms fumbled, recovered by M-OH Ty WiseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4436% → 32%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
63.7%
Henry Hesson run for no gain to the APP 49Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-1
65.0%
Rashad Amos run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 11
50
+5
67.5%
Rashad Amos run for 5 yds to the APP 45Similar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
68.2%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the APP 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0376% → 79%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
76.1%
Anderson Castle run for a loss of 3 yards to the APP 26Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+11
75.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 11 yds to the APP 37Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+1
79.2%
Joey Aguilar run for 1 yd to the APP 38Similar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
78.8%
Mitchell Lake punt for 53 yds, downed at the M-OH 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23FUMBLE
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:0129% → 31%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
71.2%
Rashad Amos run for 4 yds to the M-OH 13Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+5
72.7%
Rashad Amos run for 5 yds to the M-OH 18Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+5
73.9%
Rashad Amos run for 5 yds to the M-OH 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
75.1%
Rashad Amos run for 9 yds to the M-OH 32Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+14
71.4%
Rashad Amos run for 14 yds to the M-OH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
70.5%
Rashad Amos run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 6
50
+4
69.1%
Keyon Mozee run for 4 yds to the APP 46Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+6
69.4%
Keyon Mozee run for 10 yds to the APP 42 Keyon Mozee fumbled, recovered by APP Ronald Clarke , return for 6 yds to the APP 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24END OF GAME
12 plays · 29 yds · 2:2988% → 95%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
88.4%
Anderson Castle run for 2 yds to the APP 44Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+10
90.0%
Anderson Castle run for 10 yds to the M-OH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+25
92.5%
Anderson Castle run for 25 yds to the M-OH 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
93.6%
Anderson Castle run for 8 yds to the M-OH 13Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+2
93.8%
Anderson Castle run for 2 yds to the M-OH 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-15
93.8%
Appalachian State Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the M-OH 26Similar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 25
OPP 26
-1
94.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the M-OH 27Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 26
OPP 27
-1
95.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the M-OH 28Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 27
OPP 28
-1
95.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the M-OH 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:05
Rashad Amos run for 23 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson PAT MISSED)
-21.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:34
Anderson Castle run for 2 yds to the APP 44
+19.1
TD · Q3 4:46
Joey Aguilar run for 9 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
+13.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com