2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreBGSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:26 · Alec Bevelhimer punt for 44 yds , Jhaylin Embry returns for 2 yds to the BGSU 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:29: Rashad Amos run for 1 yd for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +2.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 10:47: Terion Stewart run for 12 yds to the BGSU 49 for a 1ST down — BGSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 25%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:07: Timeout Miami (OH), clock 01:07 — M-OH win probability +2.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:52: Brett Gabbert pass complete to Nate Muersch for 2 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +5.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:33: Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 39 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +7.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 4BGSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 4:32M-OH 4th & 1 at BGSU 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call70.6%71% to convertField goal70.1%−0.579% to makePunt68.7%−1.8average punt
- Q1 1:13BGSU 4th & 12 at BGSU 38, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snapGo for it25.7%−0.623% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.3%average punt
- Q2 7:29BGSU 4th & 16 at BGSU 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snapGo for it23.3%−1.616% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.9%average punt
- Q2 7:26M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 37, up 7Close callPunted · 74.8% before the snapGo for it75.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.7%−0.3average punt
- Q2 4:45BGSU 4th & 8 at BGSU 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snapGo for it23.3%−0.734% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.0%average punt
- Q3 10:34BGSU 4th & 6 at M-OH 37, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.1%40% to convertField goal14.3%−0.740% to makePunt14.2%−0.8average punt
- Q3 8:50BGSU 4th & 25 at M-OH 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.8% before the snapGo for it10.6%−2.17% to convertField goalTheir call12.7%60% to makePunt8.7%−4.1average punt
- Q3 0:09M-OH 4th & 8 at BGSU 34, up 21Close callKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.9%34% to convertField goalTheir call97.9%−<0.147% to makePunt97.6%−0.2average punt
- Q4 13:15BGSU 4th & 25 at BGSU 28, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q4 3:21M-OH 4th & 6 at BGSU 13, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.3%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call99.3%85% to makePunt98.9%−0.4average punt
- Q4 2:04BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 44, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 3:29M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.1%97% to makeGo for two73.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:52M-OH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.1%97% to makeGo for two84.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:33M-OH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartM-OHDrive 1TD20 plays · 75 yds · 11:0876% → 78%
Q1 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 6 yds to the M-OH 31Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
76.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 7 yds to the M-OH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-5
75.9%
PENALTY MIA Delay Of Game (Gabbert,Brett) 5 yards from MIA42 to MIA37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+18
75.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 18 yds to the BGSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
75.8%
(10:58) Shotgun Amos,Rashad rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BGSU40 (Branch-Haynes,Evan) PENALTY MIA Illegal Formation (Gabbert,Brett) 5 yards from BGSU45 to BGSU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 16
OWN 49
+12
74.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 12 yds to the BGSU 39Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+12
74.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 12 yds to the BGSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+3
74.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Nate Muersch for 3 yds to the BGSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 2:0423% → 23%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
76.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 9 yds to the BGSU 34Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
76.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 6 yds to the BGSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
76.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 5 yds to the BGSU 45Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-7
75.8%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Corey Suttle for a loss of 7 yards to the BGSU 38Similar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 12
OWN 38
+5
76.8%
Jackson Kleather punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the M-OH 19 , Cade McDonald returns for 5 yds to the M-OH 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3FUMBLE9 plays · 61 yds · 5:0377% → 78%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+23
77.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 23 yds Joe Wilkins Jr. fumbled, recovered by BGSU Darren AndersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 3:1825% → 22%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-6
76.3%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Darren Anders for a loss of 6 yards to the M-OH 24Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 16
OWN 24
+13
75.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 13 yds to the M-OH 37Similar
Q2 7:26
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+2
75.9%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 44 yds , Jhaylin Embry returns for 2 yds to the BGSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 2:2523% → 22%
M-OHDrive 7TD13 plays · 82 yds · 3:5377% → 87%
Q2 3:56
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+5
76.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 5 yds to the M-OH 24Similar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
78.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 2 yds to the BGSU 42Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+11
79.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 11 yds to the BGSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Nate Muersch for 2 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9MISSED FG17 plays · 47 yds · 6:0614% → 12%
Q3 14:04
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+16
86.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 16 yds to the BGSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+12
86.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Finn Hogan for 12 yds to the M-OH 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
84.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 7 yds to the M-OH 18Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+5
85.5%
(09:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Bazelak,Connor pass incomplete short right to Keith,Ta'ron QB hurried by Ugwu,Brian PENALTY MIA Offside 5 yards from MIA18 to MIA13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 15
OPP 18
-10
86.7%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Ty Wise for a loss of 10 yards to the M-OH 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10TD10 plays · 72 yds · 5:0689% → 98%
Q3 5:44
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+11
90.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 11 yds to the BGSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
90.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 6 yds to the BGSU 39Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+39
97.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 39 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11INT5 plays · 25 yds · 1:373% → 3%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 6 yds to the BGSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12FG6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1699% → 99%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
98.6%
PENALTY MIA False Start (DeJarld,Jack) 5 yards from BGSU36 to BGSU41. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 3 yds · 1:452% → 1%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 3 yds to the BGSU 28Similar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-9
98.3%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Brian Ugwu for a loss of 9 yards to the BGSU 34Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 19
OWN 34
-1
98.6%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Caiden Woullard for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 33Similar
Q4 13:15
4TH & 25
OWN 28
+1
98.7%
Jackson Kleather punt for 37 yds , Cade McDonald returns for 1 yd to the M-OH 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14FG16 plays · 51 yds · 9:4499% → 100%
Q4 5:23
2ND & 8
OPP 15
-10
99.7%
(05:30) Shotgun Amos,Rashad rush right for 2 yards gain to the BGSU13 (Horne,Brock) PENALTY MIA Holding (Holskey,Reid) 10 yards from BGSU15 to BGSU25. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:130% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:33
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 39 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
+7
TD · Q2 0:52
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Nate Muersch for 2 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
+5.5
TD · Q1 3:29
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
+2.8