2023 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2023 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:52 · Alec Bevelhimer punt for 32 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:31: Timeout Miami (OH), clock 01:31 — M-OH win probability +1.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:16: Aveon Smith pass incomplete — M-OH win probability +1.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 7:29: Aveon Smith pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 12 yds to the AKR 48 for a 1ST down — M-OH win probability +1.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:46: Rashad Amos run for 30 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson PAT BLOCKED) — M-OH win probability +7.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- FG · Q4 8:55: Graham Nicholson 32 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +1.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 5 of 8AKR made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 4:45M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 28, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snapGo for it85.5%−0.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.7%average punt
- Q1 3:04AKR 4th & 19 at AKR 8, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snapGo for it13.5%−0.510% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.0%average punt
- Q1 1:52M-OH 4th & 5 at AKR 37, up 7Close callPunted · 85.4% before the snapGo for it85.6%42% to convertField goal85.3%−0.240% to makePuntTheir call85.3%−0.3average punt
- Q1 0:18AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 12, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snapGo for it14.6%−<0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.6%average punt
- Q2 13:21M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 49, up 7Close callPunted · 84.9% before the snapGo for it85.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.8%−0.2average punt
- Q2 5:01M-OH 4th & 6 at AKR 18, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.5% before the snapGo for it84.0%−0.138% to convertField goalTheir call84.2%79% to makePunt81.4%−2.8average punt
- Q2 1:25AKR 4th & 13 at M-OH 35, down 10Close callWent for it · 14.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.6%−0.521% to convertField goal14.2%45% to makePunt13.5%−0.6average punt
- Q3 14:06AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 28, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snapGo for it13.6%−0.636% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.2%average punt
- Q3 12:03M-OH 4th & 12 at M-OH 32, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snapGo for it84.4%−2.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.5%average punt
- Q3 7:29AKR 4th & 1 at M-OH 39, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.2%70% to convertField goal11.3%−2.936% to makePunt11.4%−2.8average punt
- Q3 5:40M-OH 4th & 2 at AKR 40, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.3%57% to convertField goal85.7%−1.634% to makePunt85.9%−1.4average punt
- Q3 3:21AKR 4th & 4 at M-OH 35, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.2%48% to convertField goal13.0%−1.245% to makePunt12.1%−2.1average punt
- Q4 14:52AKR 4th & 15 at AKR 20, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snapGo for it5.1%−1.016% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%average punt
- Q4 14:52AKR 4th & 15 at AKR 20, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snapGo for it5.1%−1.016% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%average punt
- Q4 8:55M-OH 4th & 6 at AKR 15, up 16Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snapGo for it96.1%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call96.3%83% to makePunt93.9%−2.3average punt
- Q4 7:43AKR 4th & 11 at AKR 24, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q4 1:56M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 27, up 19Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snapGo for it99.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:17AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 35, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.8%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:43M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.2%97% to makeGo for two86.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:46M-OH Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call94.4%97% to makeGo for two94.3%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartM-OHDrive 1TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0987% → 87%
Q1 13:26
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
86.7%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 3 yds to the M-OH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
86.6%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Marshall,Miles) 5 yards from MIA35 to MIA30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+40
86.2%
Rashad Amos run for 40 yds to the AKR 16 Rashad Amos fumbled, recovered by M-OH for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
86.1%
PENALTY AKR Offside (Lavea,Lama) 2 yards from AKR04 to AKR02. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2INT12 plays · 52 yds · 1:5614% → 15%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
86.4%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 11 yds to the AKR 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
86.3%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Myles Walker for 9 yds to the AKR 38Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-5
86.1%
PENALTY AKR False Start (Frank,Ben) 5 yards from AKR46 to AKR41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+11
86.2%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Daniel George for 11 yds to the M-OH 48Similar
Q1 7:15
4TH & 4
OPP 48
+5
86.2%
(07:15) No Huddle-Shotgun Undercuffler,Jeff pass incomplete short left to Norton,Adrian PENALTY MIA Offside (Wise,Ty) 5 yards from MIA48 to MIA43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+13
85.8%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 13 yds to the M-OH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2786% → 86%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 1:3514% → 14%
M-OHDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0486% → 86%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2715% → 14%
Q1 0:18
4TH & 3
OWN 12
0
85.7%
Dante Jackson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3986% → 85%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 2:4115% → 15%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
84.6%
Tahj Bullock pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 13 yds to the AKR 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-5
84.1%
Tahj Bullock sacked by Caiden Woullard for a loss of 5 yards to the AKR 30Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 13
OWN 30
-8
84.8%
Tahj Bullock sacked by Ty Wise for a loss of 8 yards to the AKR 22Similar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 21
OWN 22
-10
85.0%
(10:44) Jackson,Dante punt 50 yards to the MIA28 muffed by McDonald,Cade at MIA28 recovered by AKR Lewis,Darrian at MIA22, End Of Play PENALTY AKR Holding (Hester,Blake) 10 yards from AKR22 to AKR12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 31
OWN 12
0
85.0%
Dante Jackson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the AKR 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9FG10 plays · 27 yds · 5:2186% → 85%
Q2 8:43
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+6
85.1%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 6 yds to the AKR 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
85.9%
(08:18) Shotgun Amos,Rashad rush right for 2 yards gain to the AKR31 (Fish,Antavious) PENALTY MIA Holding offsetting AKR Face Mask offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10DOWNS14 plays · 40 yds · 3:2915% → 15%
M-OHDrive 11Uncategorized3 plays · 7 yds · 1:1687% → 86%
AKRDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4415% → 14%
M-OHDrive 13PUNT3 plays · -2 yds · 1:2886% → 86%
AKRDrive 14DOWNS9 plays · 51 yds · 4:2513% → 14%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+18
86.6%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Bobby Golden for 18 yds to the AKR 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
86.2%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 6 yds to the AKR 33Similar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
85.8%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Adrian Norton for 3 yds to the AKR 44Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+8
85.5%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Adrian Norton for 8 yds to the M-OH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+4
84.6%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 4 yds to the M-OH 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15DOWNS5 plays · 20 yds · 1:4988% → 87%
AKRDrive 16DOWNS5 plays · 28 yds · 2:1314% → 14%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
85.8%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 19 yds to the M-OH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+4
85.1%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Adrian Norton for 4 yds to the M-OH 35Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
84.8%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Lorenzo Lingard for no gain to the M-OH 35Similar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+3
86.4%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Lorenzo Lingard for 3 yds to the M-OH 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17TD7 plays · 68 yds · 1:2988% → 95%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
87.8%
Shotgun Smith,Aveon pass incomplete deep right to Virgil,Reggie PENALTY AKR Pass Interference (Tallandier II,Judson) 15 yards from MIA32 to MIA47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+15
87.9%
Akron Penalty, Roughing The Passer (15 Yards) to the AKR 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
88.3%
PENALTY AKR Sideline Inteference 5 yards from MIA35 to MIA40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
95.4%
Rashad Amos run for 30 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 1:476% → 6%
M-OHDrive 19FG9 plays · 40 yds · 5:4896% → 98%
AKRDrive 20PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 1:033% → 3%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
97.3%
(08:54) No Huddle-Shotgun Undercuffler,Jeff pass complete short right to Lingard,Lorenzo for 2 yards to the AKR27 (Lukusa,Joshua; Wise,Ty) PENALTY AKR Holding (Chambers,Ronan) 10 yards from AKR25 to AKR15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+9
97.4%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Lorenzo Lingard for 9 yds to the AKR 24Similar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
97.5%
Dante Jackson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21FUMBLE2 plays · 11 yds · 0:4099% → 99%
Q4 6:51
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
98.7%
Kenny Tracy run for 2 yds to the M-OH 47 Kenny Tracy fumbled, recovered by AKR Antavious Fish (06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Tracy,Kenny rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA47 fumbled by Tracy,Kenny at MIA47 forced by McCoy,Bryan recovered by AKR Fish,Antavious at MIA47, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 22INT8 plays · 42 yds · 2:563% → 2%
Q4 6:29
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+16
97.5%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Jake Newell for 16 yds to the M-OH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+5
97.6%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Lorenzo Lingard for 5 yds to the M-OH 22Similar
Q4 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
97.7%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Daniel George for 5 yds to the M-OH 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4899% → 99%
Q4 1:56
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+1
99.3%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 45 yds , Bobby Golden returns for 1 yd to the AKR 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:46
Rashad Amos run for 30 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson PAT BLOCKED)
+7
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:16
Aveon Smith pass incomplete
+1.8
KEY PLAY · Q3 7:29
Aveon Smith pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 12 yds to the AKR 48 for a 1ST down
+1.7