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M-OH

Miami (OH) 34 at Western Michigan 21

WMU
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of GameFG-8.2WMU 10.7%Graham Nicholson 39 yd FG GOODAWAY 31 - HOME 21 · Q4 6:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:00 · Graham Nicholson 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Home team on offense−27.8Pregame prior−2.2Score differential−11.2Garbage-time factor−11.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:39: Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 19 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK) — WMU win probability +6.4 pts (now 35%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:27: Brett Gabbert run for 4 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +8.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:47: Brett Gabbert run for 9 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +11.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:59: Hayden Wolff 5 Yd Run (Hayden Wolff Pass to Leroy Thomas for Two-Point Conversion) — WMU win probability +18.8 pts (now 35%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 6:00: Graham Nicholson 39 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +8.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:43WMU 4th & 3 at WMU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:39WMU 4th & 4 at M-OH 12, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.8%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−2.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:50WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 44, down 11
    Close callPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:39WMU 4th & 1 at M-OH 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.8%−1.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    25.5%−4.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:11WMU 4th & 6 at M-OH 29, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.0%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−4.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:37WMU 4th & 5 at WMU 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:45M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 47, up 11
    Close callPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:45WMU 4th & 1 at M-OH 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    23.6%−2.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    19.3%−6.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:50WMU 4th & 14 at M-OH 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:52M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−2.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:52M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−2.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:55WMU 4th & 12 at WMU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−2.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:00M-OH 4th & 9 at WMU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−8.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:18WMU 4th & 5 at WMU 26, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:54M-OH 4th & 9 at WMU 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    83.3%−5.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:47WMU 4th & 13 at WMU 22, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:36M-OH 4th & 12 at WMU 31, up 13
    Close callWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.8%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:18M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:24M-OH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:39WMU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:27M-OH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:47M-OH Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:59WMU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    20.7%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    21.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:1729% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
28.5%
PENALTY WMU False Start (West,Addison) 5 yards from WMU25 to WMU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
28.5%
Jalen Buckley run for 8 yds to the WMU 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
28.5%
Leroy Thomas run for 1 yd to the WMU 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
28.5%
Jalen Buckley run for 8 yds to the WMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
28.5%
Treyson Bourguet pass incomplete to Austin HenceSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
28.5%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the WMU 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+5
28.5%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Leroy Thomas for 5 yds to the WMU 44Similar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+2
29.5%
Blake Bosma run for 2 yds to the WMU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 3:2571% → 71%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
29.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 14 yds to the WMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
29.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 13 yds to the WMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
29.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 5 yds to the WMU 14Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+2
29.2%
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the WMU 12Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+3
29.3%
Brett Gabbert run for 3 yds to the WMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
28.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 9 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3FG
16 plays · 63 yds · 5:3929% → 32%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
29.4%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Leroy Thomas for 1 yd to the WMU 26Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
29.4%
Treyson Bourguet run for 4 yds to the WMU 30Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
29.3%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Blake Bosma for 14 yds to the WMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
29.8%
Leroy Thomas run for 3 yds to the WMU 47Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+10
29.9%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Leroy Thomas for 10 yds to the M-OH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
30.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 8 yds to the M-OH 35Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
30.2%
Jalen Buckley run for no gain to the M-OH 35Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+4
30.0%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 4 yds to the M-OH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
30.2%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Blake Bosma for no gain to the M-OH 31Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+13
30.7%
Jalen Buckley run for 13 yds to the M-OH 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
30.7%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the M-OH 16Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
30.7%
Treyson Bourguet pass incomplete to Austin HenceSimilar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+4
30.3%
Treyson Bourguet run for 4 yds to the M-OH 12Similar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+30
32.4%
Palmer Domschke 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:1569% → 73%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
31.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Gage LarvadainSimilar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
31.1%
Rashad Amos run for 6 yds to the WMU 47Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+42
31.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 42 yds to the WMU 5 for a 1ST down Western Michigan Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
30.7%
Kevin Davis run for no gain to the WMU 5Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
30.7%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Gage LarvadainSimilar
Q1 1:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
27.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 5 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:3428% → 28%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
27.7%
CJ Hester run for 13 yds to the WMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
28.2%
CJ Hester run for no gain to the WMU 38Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
28.1%
Treyson Bourguet run for 3 yds to the WMU 41Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+3
27.9%
Treyson Bourguet run for 3 yds to the WMU 44Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
27.8%
Carson Voss punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the M-OH 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:2772% → 73%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
27.9%
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the M-OH 4Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+2
28.0%
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the M-OH 6Similar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 6
OWN 6
0
27.3%
Brett Gabbert pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:4429% → 35%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
29.2%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 4 yds to the M-OH 24Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+3
29.2%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 3 yds to the M-OH 21Similar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+2
28.6%
Leroy Thomas run for 2 yds to the M-OH 19Similar
Q2 11:39
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+19
35.0%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 19 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8FUMBLE
11 plays · 20 yds · 4:1466% → 66%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
33.8%
Rashad Amos run for 4 yds to the M-OH 17Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+10
33.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 10 yds to the M-OH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
33.2%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Gage LarvadainSimilar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
33.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Nate Muersch for 5 yds to the M-OH 32Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+5
33.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 5 yds to the M-OH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
32.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mozee,Keyon rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIA41 (Wahlberg,Jacob; Green,Isaiah) PENALTY MIA Holding (Vaughan,Sam) 10 yards from MIA37 to MIA27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+8
33.6%
Kevin Davis run for 8 yds to the M-OH 35Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
33.6%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Cade McDonaldSimilar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 12
OWN 35
-5
34.1%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Larvadain,Gage) 5 yards from MIA35 to MIA30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+3
34.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 3 yds Kenny Tracy fumbled, recovered by WMU Donald WillisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9MISSED FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1437% → 35%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
37.4%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the M-OH 31Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+2
37.4%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the M-OH 29Similar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
36.3%
Treyson Bourguet pass incomplete to Austin HenceSimilar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+47
35.4%
Palmer Domschke 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 4:4467% → 78%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
33.2%
Brett Gabbert run for 4 yds to the M-OH 33Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
32.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+8
33.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 8 yds to the M-OH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
32.1%
Rashad Amos run for 8 yds to the M-OH 49Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+12
31.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Miles Marshall for 12 yds to the WMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
31.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 8 yds to the WMU 31Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+7
31.2%
Rashad Amos run for 7 yds to the WMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+20
31.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Miles Marshall for 20 yds to the WMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
21.9%
Brett Gabbert run for 4 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5024% → 24%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
24.4%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 7 yds to the WMU 32Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
25.2%
Treyson Bourguet sacked by Brian Ugwu for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 30Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
24.3%
Treyson Bourguet pass incomplete to Austin HenceSimilar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+10
23.8%
Carson Voss punt for 42 yds , Cade McDonald returns for 10 yds to the M-OH 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12Uncategorized
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:3778% → 78%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
22.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Gage LarvadainSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-4
21.8%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Corey Walker for a loss of 4 yards to the M-OH 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:1576% → 77%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.3%
Brett Gabbert run for no gain to the M-OH 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
24.5%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Joe Wilkins Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
24.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 16 yds to the M-OH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
23.3%
Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the M-OH 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
23.3%
Kenny Tracy run for 3 yds to the M-OH 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
23.5%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Gage LarvadainSimilar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
22.8%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14FG
16 plays · 56 yds · 6:5524% → 24%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
23.9%
Jalen Buckley run for 4 yds to the WMU 17Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+11
24.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 11 yds to the WMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
24.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 5 yds to the WMU 33Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+19
24.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jalen Buckley for 19 yds to the M-OH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
26.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 1 yd to the M-OH 47Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+6
26.4%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 6 yds to the M-OH 41Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+3
26.5%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 3 yds to the M-OH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
26.5%
Hayden Wolff run for 5 yds to the M-OH 33Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
28.1%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Leroy ThomasSimilar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+4
26.6%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 4 yds to the M-OH 29Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+2
25.7%
CJ Hester run for 2 yds to the M-OH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
28.1%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Caiden Woullard for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 29Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+6
27.6%
Jalen Buckley run for 6 yds to the M-OH 23Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+2
26.6%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the M-OH 21Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 4
OPP 21
-10
25.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Wolff,Hayden pass complete short left to Hence,Austin for 0 yards to the MIA21 (Dowell,Michael) PENALTY WMU Holding 10 yards from MIA21 to MIA31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 14
OPP 31
+49
23.6%
Palmer Domschke 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:0376% → 94%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
23.6%
Kenny Tracy run for 4 yds to the M-OH 29Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
23.2%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Kenny TracySimilar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
23.9%
Shotgun Gabbert,Brett pass incomplete deep middle to Wilkins Jr.,Joe PENALTY WMU Holding (Romphf,Anthony) 10 yards from MIA29 to MIA39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
22.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 8 yds to the M-OH 47Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+4
22.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 4 yds to the WMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
21.7%
Kenny Tracy run for 2 yds to the WMU 47Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
21.7%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Cade McDonaldSimilar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+15
22.1%
Shotgun Gabbert,Brett sacked for loss of 6 yards to the MIA47 (Nelson,Mason) PENALTY WMU Face Mask (Nelson,Mason) 15 yards from WMU47 to WMU32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
21.2%
Kevin Davis run for 12 yds to the WMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
21.0%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+8
21.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 8 yds to the WMU 12Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+3
18.8%
Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the WMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
17.9%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
6.2%
Brett Gabbert run for 9 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4813% → 35%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
12.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Leroy Thomas for 11 yds to the WMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
13.3%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Jalen BuckleySimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
12.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Wolff,Hayden pass complete short left to Womack,Kenneth for 3 yards to the WMU39 (Blakey,Eli) PENALTY MIA Offside 5 yards from WMU36 to WMU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
14.2%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the WMU 42Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+18
14.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jalen Buckley for 18 yds to the M-OH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
14.8%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Jalen BuckleySimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+20
14.5%
Hayden Wolff run for 20 yds to the M-OH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
15.9%
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the M-OH 17Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+7
15.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 7 yds to the M-OH 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
15.9%
Leroy Thomas run for 5 yds to the M-OH 5Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
34.7%
Hayden Wolff 5 Yd Run (Hayden Wolff Pass to Leroy Thomas for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:0778% → 78%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
22.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 1 yd to the M-OH 26Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
22.3%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Cade McDonaldSimilar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
23.2%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Gage LarvadainSimilar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+5
22.0%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 43 yds , Zahir Abdus-Salaam returns for 5 yds to the WMU 36Similar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+5
22.0%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 43 yds , Zahir Abdus-Salaam returns for 5 yds to the WMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5726% → 23%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
25.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jalen Buckley for 3 yds to the WMU 23Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
25.5%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Leroy ThomasSimilar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
24.1%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Malique DieudonneSimilar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 7
OWN 23
-5
23.1%
PENALTY WMU Illegal Formation 5 yards from WMU23 to WMU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
22.8%
Carson Voss punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19FG
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:5584% → 89%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
50
+27
16.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 27 yds to the WMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
15.6%
Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the WMU 20Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+3
15.6%
Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the WMU 17Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
16.3%
Rashad Amos run for no gain to the WMU 17Similar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 4
OPP 17
-5
18.9%
PENALTY MIA Delay Of Game 5 yards from WMU17 to WMU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
10.7%
Graham Nicholson 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4212% → 9%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
11.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 5 yds to the WMU 26Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
11.9%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Kenneth WomackSimilar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
11.2%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Kenneth WomackSimilar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 5
OWN 26
-2
9.0%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Brian Ugwu for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21FG
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:2491% → 96%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
8.6%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Davis,Kevin) 5 yards from WMU24 to WMU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+2
8.6%
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the WMU 31Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 17
OPP 31
+11
7.3%
Kevin Davis run for 11 yds to the WMU 20Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+3
6.3%
Kevin Davis run for 3 yds to the WMU 23Similar
Q4 4:54
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+40
3.7%
Graham Nicholson 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:076% → 4%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
6.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Austin Hence for 2 yds to the WMU 27Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
6.4%
Hayden Wolff run for 2 yds to the WMU 29Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-10
6.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Wolff,Hayden rush middle for 7 yards gain to the WMU36 (Hondru,Corban) PENALTY WMU Holding (West,Addison) 10 yards from WMU29 to WMU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+3
6.0%
Hayden Wolff run for 3 yds to the WMU 22Similar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+7
3.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jalen Buckley for 7 yds to the WMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:1198% → 99%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
1.9%
B. Gabbert takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 11
OPP 30
-1
1.9%
B. Gabbert takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 12
OPP 31
0
2.0%
B. Gabbert takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 12
OPP 31
0
1.2%
B. Gabbert takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:363% → 3%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
3.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 3 yds to the WMU 34Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+7
3.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zahir Abdus-Salaam for 7 yds to the WMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-8
3.3%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Caiden Woullard for a loss of 8 yards to the WMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:59
Hayden Wolff 5 Yd Run (Hayden Wolff Pass to Leroy Thomas for Two-Point Conversion)
+18.8
TD · Q4 14:47
Brett Gabbert run for 9 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
-11.7
FG · Q4 6:00
Graham Nicholson 39 yd FG GOOD
-8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com