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BUF

Buffalo 10 at Miami (OH) 23

M-OH
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2023 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:25 · Alec Bevelhimer punt for 50 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Pregame prior+0.1Home team on offense+29.4Garbage-time factor+16.0Score differential+13.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+6.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:50: Rashad Amos run for 30 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +8.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Alex McNulty 48 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +3.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:47: Graham Nicholson 37 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +3.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:14: CJ Ogbonna run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +14.8 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 10:45: Rashad Amos run for 2 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +13.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 8 of 9BUF made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:50BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:20M-OH 4th & 8 at M-OH 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:56BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:51M-OH 4th & 11 at M-OH 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:52BUF 4th & 2 at M-OH 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−0.6
    49% to make
    Punt
    31.9%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:13M-OH 4th & 13 at M-OH 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:19BUF 4th & 17 at BUF 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−1.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:45M-OH 4th & 8 at BUF 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:26BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00BUF 4th & 5 at M-OH 30, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.7%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:47M-OH 4th & 6 at BUF 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−5.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:37BUF 4th & 4 at M-OH 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.6%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:53M-OH 4th & 2 at midfield, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%−2.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:16BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:55BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:03M-OH 4th & 1 at BUF 15, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    91.8%−0.9
    83% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−3.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:11M-OH 4th & 6 at BUF 6, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−2.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:25M-OH 4th & 16 at M-OH 14, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 2:50M-OH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 2:14BUF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:45M-OH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0330% → 30%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.3%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the BUFF 30Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
70.2%
CJ Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the BUFF 32Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
70.1%
CJ Ogbonna run for no gain to the BUFF 32Similar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
70.1%
Anthony Venneri punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1570% → 70%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
70.0%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Rashad Amos for 2 yds to the M-OH 25Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
69.9%
Rashad Amos run for no gain to the M-OH 25Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
69.6%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Cade McDonaldSimilar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
69.5%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2430% → 30%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
69.7%
CJ Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the BUFF 28Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
69.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the BUFF 28Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
69.6%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Boobie CurrySimilar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
69.8%
Anthony Venneri punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:5470% → 69%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
69.6%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Kevin Davis for 1 yd to the M-OH 35Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
69.5%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+11
69.1%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Luke Bolden for 11 yds to the M-OH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
69.8%
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the M-OH 45Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
69.4%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Joe Wilkins Jr.Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
69.0%
Aveon Smith run for no gain to the M-OH 45Similar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
68.5%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cole Harrity at the BUFF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5DOWNS
14 plays · 52 yds · 6:5131% → 33%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
68.9%
Cole Snyder run for 7 yds to the BUFF 22Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+2
68.5%
Nik McMillan run for 2 yds to the BUFF 24Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
68.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the BUFF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
68.5%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the BUFF 27Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+8
68.4%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 8 yds to the BUFF 35Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+11
67.9%
CJ Ogbonna run for 11 yds to the BUFF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
67.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the M-OH 49Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+1
66.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the M-OH 48Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+7
66.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 7 yds to the M-OH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
66.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the M-OH 36Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+2
65.8%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the M-OH 34Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+1
65.9%
CJ Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the M-OH 33Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 2
OPP 33
0
66.6%
CJ Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:3169% → 67%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
68.6%
Aveon Smith run for 10 yds to the M-OH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
69.4%
Aveon Smith run for no gain to the M-OH 43Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-10
69.0%
(13:32) Shotgun Amos,Rashad rush right for 2 yards gain to the MIA45 (Murdock,Red; Bass,Jaylon) PENALTY MIA Holding (Jados,Will) 10 yards from MIA43 to MIA33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 20
OWN 33
+7
68.1%
Rashad Amos run for 7 yds to the M-OH 40Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 13
OWN 40
0
67.8%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
67.4%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Cole Harrity at the BUFF 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:4333% → 32%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
66.7%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 6 yds to the BUFF 11Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 16
OWN 11
+1
66.8%
Cole Snyder run for 1 yd to the BUFF 12Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 15
OWN 12
+2
67.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 2 yds to the BUFF 10Similar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 17
OWN 10
0
67.7%
Anthony Venneri punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the BUFF 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8FG
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:2270% → 70%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+37
69.7%
Kenny Tracy run for 37 yds to the BUFF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
70.4%
Aveon Smith run for 1 yd to the BUFF 8Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
70.4%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q2 8:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
70.1%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Joe Wilkins Jr.Similar
Q2 8:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
70.2%
Graham Nicholson 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:1130% → 29%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.4%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the BUFF 29Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
70.3%
CJ Ogbonna run for 6 yds to the BUFF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
70.2%
CJ Ogbonna pass incomplete to Boobie CurrySimilar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
70.5%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the BUFF 39Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
70.0%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Boobie CurrySimilar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
71.2%
Anthony Venneri punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the M-OH 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10TD
6 plays · 88 yds · 3:2470% → 80%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+22
70.0%
Rashad Amos run for 22 yds to the M-OH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
70.3%
Kevin Davis run for 7 yds to the M-OH 41Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+22
71.6%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Javon Tracy for 22 yds to the BUFF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
72.2%
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the BUFF 39Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+9
71.7%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Luke Bolden for 9 yds to the BUFF 30Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+30
80.3%
Rashad Amos run for 30 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 2:4220% → 25%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
80.0%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Boobie CurrySimilar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
79.9%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the BUFF 26Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+14
80.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 14 yds to the BUFF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
78.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for 13 yds to the M-OH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
77.0%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the M-OH 43Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+1
77.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for 1 yd to the M-OH 44Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+9
77.5%
Cole Snyder run for 9 yds to the M-OH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
75.4%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Mike WashingtonSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
75.5%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Ron Cook Jr.Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+5
77.8%
Cole Snyder run for 5 yds to the M-OH 30Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+48
74.6%
Alex McNulty 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 4:5676% → 81%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
75.6%
Aveon Smith run for 2 yds to the M-OH 18Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+5
75.4%
Rashad Amos run for 5 yds to the M-OH 23Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+37
74.8%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Javon Tracy for 37 yds to the BUFF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
77.8%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Kevin DavisSimilar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+16
77.7%
Rashad Amos run for 16 yds to the BUFF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
78.7%
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the BUFF 25Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+3
78.8%
Aveon Smith run for 3 yds to the BUFF 22Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+2
78.0%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Javon Tracy for 2 yds to the BUFF 20Similar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
80.9%
Graham Nicholson 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:2719% → 36%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the BUFF 27Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
80.6%
CJ Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the BUFF 29Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+16
81.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 16 yds to the BUFF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
79.8%
CJ Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the BUFF 47Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
79.9%
CJ Ogbonna run for 4 yds to the M-OH 49Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
79.7%
CJ Ogbonna run for no gain to the M-OH 49Similar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 4
OPP 49
+27
81.5%
Tadd Barr pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 27 yds to the M-OH 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
78.1%
CJ Ogbonna run for 3 yds to the M-OH 19Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+4
78.6%
CJ Ogbonna run for 4 yds to the M-OH 15Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 3
OPP 15
0
80.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the M-OH 15Similar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+5
81.5%
PENALTY MIA Offside (McKee,Yahsyn) 5 yards from MIA15 to MIA10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
78.9%
Cole Harrity run for 5 yds to the M-OH 5Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
78.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the M-OH 3Similar
Q3 2:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.1%
CJ Ogbonna run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:0169% → 69%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
68.9%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Javon Tracy for 10 yds to the M-OH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
70.8%
Aveon Smith run for 3 yds to the M-OH 45Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+3
71.4%
Aveon Smith run for 3 yds to the M-OH 48Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+2
70.5%
Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 2
50
0
69.4%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cole Harrity at the BUFF 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:3031% → 28%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
69.4%
CJ Ogbonna run for 5 yds to the BUFF 14Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+8
70.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 8 yds to the BUFF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
69.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the BUFF 22Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
70.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the BUFF 26Similar
Q4 12:28
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
71.0%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 6
OWN 26
+5
72.1%
Anthony Venneri punt for 41 yds , Cade McDonald returns for 5 yds to the M-OH 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:2374% → 89%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
73.9%
Aveon Smith run for 8 yds to the M-OH 46Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+52
75.3%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Javon Tracy for 52 yds to the BUFF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.7%
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5711% → 9%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
89.0%
CJ Ogbonna run for 3 yds to the BUFF 11Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+3
89.8%
CJ Ogbonna run for 3 yds to the BUFF 14Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 4
OWN 14
0
90.4%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 4
OWN 14
+15
90.9%
Anthony Venneri punt for 47 yds , Cade McDonald returns for 15 yds to the BUFF 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18FG
15 plays · 40 yds · 5:3791% → 98%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
90.6%
Aveon Smith run for 11 yds to the BUFF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
91.6%
Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the BUFF 38Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+14
91.8%
Aveon Smith run for 14 yds to the BUFF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
92.6%
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the BUFF 26Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+5
92.7%
Aveon Smith run for 5 yds to the BUFF 21Similar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+6
92.9%
Aveon Smith run for 6 yds to the BUFF 15Similar
Q4 4:03
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+10
92.8%
Rashad Amos run for 10 yds to the BUFF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
95.1%
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the BUFF 4Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
95.1%
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the BUFF 6Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
95.3%
Aveon Smith run for no gain to the BUFF 6Similar
Q4 3:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
98.2%
Graham Nicholson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:223% → 2%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.5%
PENALTY BUF False Start (Shepard,Caelan) 5 yards from BUF25 to BUF20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
97.6%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+80
97.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 80 yds Marlyn Johnson fumbled, recovered by M-OH (00:25) Shotgun Snyder,Cole pass complete short left to Johnson,Marlyn for 80 yards to the MIA00 fumbled by Johnson,Marlyn at MIA01 forced by Dowell,Michael recovered by MIA Miami (OH) at MIA00, Touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 2:2498% → 99%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
98.3%
run for 2 yds to the M-OH 18Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+2
98.6%
run for 2 yds to the M-OH 16Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+2
98.7%
run for 2 yds to the M-OH 14Similar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
98.6%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:103% → 3%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-9
97.4%
Cole Snyder sacked by Caiden Woullard for a loss of 9 yards to the BUFF 22 Cole Snyder fumbled, recovered by M-OH Brian Ugwu , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-9
97.5%
Cole Snyder sacked by Caiden Woullard for a loss of 9 yards to the BUFF 22 Cole Snyder fumbled, recovered by M-OH Brian Ugwu , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22Uncategorized
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
98.9%
run for 2 yds to the BUFF 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:14
CJ Ogbonna run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
-14.8
TD · Q4 10:45
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
+13.4
TD · Q2 2:50
Rashad Amos run for 30 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
+8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com