Oregon

Profile vs. FBS, 2023

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.4899th
  Defense+0.0288th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense57.3%99th
  Defense38.5%77th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2964th
  Defense+1.2839th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.3599th
  Defense+0.0270th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.5999th
  Defense+0.1187th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense61.6%99th
  Defense42.1%90th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense44.0%98th
  Defense30.7%42nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.7298th
  Defense3.0750th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense13.6%86th
  Defense16.6%45th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense8.9%99th
  Defense17.2%62nd

Percentiles among the 133 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2023

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Oregon allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   PRST
2. W
   TTU
3. W
   HAW
4. W
   COLO
5. W
   STAN
6. L
   WASH
7. W
   WSU
8. W
   UTAH
9. W
   CAL
10. W
    USC
11. W
    ASU
12. W
    ORST
13. L
    WASH
14. W
    LIB

Bars above the line: better than expected for Oregon.

Players, 2023

1. Bo NixQB362 plays · +0.359 pts/play · 3rd of 250 QBs
   2.43WAR1.76 to 3.18
2. Tez JohnsonWR67 plays · +0.295 pts/play · 7th of 457 WRs
   0.37WAR0.21 to 0.53
3. Bucky IrvingRB173 plays · +0.102 pts/play · 58th of 383 RBs
   0.33WAR0.19 to 0.47
4. Troy FranklinWR63 plays · +0.269 pts/play · 17th of 457 WRs
   0.32WAR0.16 to 0.48
5. Jordan JamesRB69 plays · +0.149 pts/play · 140th of 383 RBs
   0.19WAR0.14 to 0.25
6. Terrance FergusonTE30 plays · +0.252 pts/play · 30th of 212 TEs
   0.14WAR0.08 to 0.21
7. Camden LewisPK14 plays · +0.274 pts/play · 73rd of 113 kickers
   0.07WAR0.04 to 0.10
8. Patrick HerbertTE13 plays · +0.234 pts/play · 108th of 212 TEs
   0.06WAR0.04 to 0.08

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Oregon's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2023

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  87587510th of 130Roster talent: 875, 10th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  26726710th of 130Recruiting: 267, 10th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  81%81%13th of 128Returning production: 81%, 13th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +26.2+26.23rd of 130SP+ rating: +26.2, 3rd of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2023

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Oregon's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.02 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at WASHQ1 2:24 4th & 1 at ORE 34, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
2. at UTAHQ2 6:58 4th & 3 at ORE 27, up 18Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
3. at WASHQ2 8:46 4th & 4 at WASH 18, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
4. at WASHQ3 13:41 4th & 5 at ORE 47, down 10Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.2 pts
5. vs WSUQ3 13:17 4th & 5 at midfield, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
6. vs PRSTQ4 6:09 4th & 1 at ORE 19, up 67Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
7. vs COLOQ2 14:23 4th & 4 at ORE 17, up 13Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.1 pts
8. at UTAHQ4 2:01 4th & 2 at ORE 36, up 29Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2023

62nd of 133 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Oregon's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   PRST
2. W

   TTU
3. W

   HAW
4. W

   COLO
5. W

   STAN
6. L

   WASH
7. W

   WSU
8. W

   UTAH
9. W

   CAL
10. W

    USC
11. W

    ASU
12. W

    ORST
13. L

    WASH
14. W

    LIB

What moved it, 2023

Every game starts at Oregon's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.82
• Possession & field position+0.04
• Clock+0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−1.30

Game by game

• PRSTW 81-7 vs PRST100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +1
• TTUW 38-30 at TTU69% → 93%Before kickoff +19 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +40, Clock +2
• HAWW 55-10 vs HAW99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• COLOW 42-6 vs COLO95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +8
• STANW 42-6 at STAN97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +6
• WASHL 33-36 at WASH45% → 26%Before kickoff −5 · On the field −19: Scoreboard −15, Possession & field position +2
• WSUW 38-24 vs WSU92% → 99%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +13
• UTAHW 35-6 at UTAH71% → 100%Before kickoff +21 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +35
• CALW 63-19 vs CAL96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +6
• USCW 36-27 vs USC85% → 97%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +19, Timeouts +1
• ASUW 49-13 at ASU94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +10
• ORSTW 31-7 vs ORST87% → 100%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +13: Scoreboard +18
• WASHL 31-34 at WASH76% → 5%Before kickoff +26 · On the field −72: Scoreboard −39, Timeouts −3
• LIBW 45-6 vs LIB93% → 38%Before kickoff +43 · On the field −56: Scoreboard −21, Possession & field position +4

Points of win probability, from Oregon's side.

Closest call

ORE 44-41 WSU (2022) - Oregon dropped to a 0.8% win probability before pulling it out.