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ORE

Oregon 33 at Washington 36

WASH
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:51 · Ross James punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WASH 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior+5.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:12: Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Penix Jr. pass to Jack Westover for Two-Point Conversion) — WASH win probability +9.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:31: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 17 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +9.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:36: Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 30 yds for a TD (Bo Nix pass to Tez Johnson for Two-Point Conversion) — ORE win probability +22.3 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 12:58: Jordan James run for 10 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +28.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:38: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 18 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +62.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:18WASH 4th & 13 at WASH 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:51ORE 4th & 9 at ORE 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 2:04ORE 4th & 7 at WASH 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    26.6%−4.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:25WASH 4th & 1 at WASH 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.6%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:00ORE 4th & 3 at WASH 3, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    38.4%−1.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−8.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:49ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:30ORE 4th & 3 at WASH 8, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%−0.9
    90% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−7.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:28WASH 4th & 6 at WASH 13, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−1.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:48WASH 4th & 5 at WASH 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:15WASH 4th & 6 at ORE 16, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.6 ptsWent for it · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.6%−2.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    42.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−14.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:33WASH 4th & 1 at ORE 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    36.4%−9.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−26.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:11ORE 4th & 3 at WASH 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    79.7%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ORE made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 10:49WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:54ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    39.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:46WASH Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:44ORE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:12WASH Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    65.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:31WASH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:36ORE Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:58ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:38WASH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−2.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WASHDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:3355% → 55%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
55.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 13 yds to the WASH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
55.4%
Washington Penalty, False Start (Jalen McMillan) to the WASH 33Similar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+2
55.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 2 yds to the WASH 35Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 13
OWN 35
0
55.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 13
OWN 35
0
55.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 13
OWN 35
0
55.3%
Jack McCallister punt for 42 yds , Tez Johnson returns for no gain to the ORE 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1445% → 44%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
55.5%
Bucky Irving run for no gain to the ORE 23Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
55.5%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Bucky IrvingSimilar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-5
55.6%
Oregon Penalty, False Start (Ajani Cornelius) to the ORE 18Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 15
OWN 18
+6
55.7%
Bucky Irving run for 6 yds to the ORE 24Similar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
55.8%
Ross James punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WASH 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 3TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 0:5656% → 58%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
55.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the WASH 31Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 3
OWN 31
0
55.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ja'Lynn PolkSimilar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+43
55.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 43 yds to the ORE 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
57.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 26 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4TD
17 plays · 90 yds · 5:3943% → 46%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-3
57.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jordan James for a loss of 3 yards to the ORE 7Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 13
OWN 7
+15
57.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 15 yds to the ORE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
57.6%
Bucky Irving run for 5 yds to the ORE 27Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+2
57.8%
Bucky Irving run for 2 yds to the ORE 29Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+5
58.2%
Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the ORE 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
58.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 3 yds to the ORE 37Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+10
58.4%
Bucky Irving run for 10 yds to the ORE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
58.1%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
58.4%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Troy FranklinSimilar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+15
58.6%
Washington Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Elijah Jackson) to the WASH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
58.1%
Bucky Irving run for 4 yds to the WASH 34Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+3
57.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 3 yds to the WASH 31Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+6
58.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 6 yds to the WASH 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
58.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 8 yds to the WASH 17Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+5
58.1%
Washington Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the WASH 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
54.1%
Bucky Irving run for 12 yds for a TD (P. Herbert Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5955% → 62%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
55.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the WASH 26Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+18
54.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 18 yds to the WASH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
56.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+17
55.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 17 yds to the ORE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
56.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 4 yds to the ORE 35Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+2
57.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the ORE 33Similar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+7
56.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 7 yds to the ORE 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
61.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 26 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3639% → 49%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.1%
Bucky Irving run for 7 yds to the ORE 32Similar
Q1 0:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
60.2%
Bucky Irving run for 7 yds to the ORE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
60.4%
Bo Nix run for a loss of 2 yards to the ORE 37Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 12
OWN 37
-1
61.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jordan James for a loss of 1 yard to the ORE 36Similar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+13
62.4%
Bo Nix run for 13 yds to the ORE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+24
60.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 24 yds to the WASH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
59.0%
Bucky Irving run for 1 yd to the WASH 26Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+15
59.4%
Bucky Irving run for 15 yds to the WASH 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
51.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Patrick Herbert for 11 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 7TD
15 plays · 83 yds · 6:1855% → 68%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
54.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the WASH 19Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
54.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ja'Lynn PolkSimilar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+14
53.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 14 yds to the WASH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
55.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the WASH 35Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+17
55.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 17 yds to the ORE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
57.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 7 yds to the ORE 41Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 3
OPP 41
-5
57.8%
Washington Penalty, False Start (Ja'Lynn Polk) to the ORE 46Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+9
56.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the ORE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
56.8%
Germie Bernard pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 14 yds to the ORE 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
57.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the ORE 17Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+5
57.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the ORE 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
57.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 5 yds to the ORE 7Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
67.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Penix Jr. pass to Jack Westover for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:5134% → 39%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
66.3%
Jordan James run for 9 yds to the ORE 34Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
64.7%
Jordan James run for 7 yds to the ORE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
65.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 13 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
63.8%
Washington Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jabbar Muhammad) to the WASH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-8
62.8%
Bo Nix sacked by Edefuan Ulofoshio for a loss of 8 yards to the WASH 39Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 18
OPP 39
+9
65.4%
Bucky Irving run for 9 yds to the WASH 30Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+2
64.5%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the WASH 28Similar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+45
60.8%
Camden Lewis 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 9INT
8 plays · 6 yds · 1:0463% → 63%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
63.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
62.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 9 yds to the WASH 44Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
64.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
62.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 2 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
65.2%
Michael Penix Jr. sacked by Brandon Dorlus for a loss of 5 yards to the WASH 41Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 15
OWN 41
0
63.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass intercepted Jahlil Florence return for no gain to the ORE 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10DOWNS
9 plays · 48 yds · 0:5240% → 38%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
59.9%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Troy FranklinSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
60.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 8 yds to the WASH 43Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+11
58.8%
Bucky Irving run for 11 yds to the WASH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+22
57.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 22 yds to the WASH 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
59.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Traeshon HoldenSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
59.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 7 yds to the WASH 3Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
60.5%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Traeshon HoldenSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
62.3%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:0238% → 36%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.9%
Bucky Irving run for 2 yds to the ORE 27Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
61.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 6 yds to the ORE 33Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-10
61.5%
Oregon Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ajani Cornelius) to the ORE 23Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+4
63.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Patrick Herbert for 4 yds to the ORE 27Similar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
64.4%
Ross James punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Giles Jackson at the WASH 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:0763% → 79%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
63.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the WASH 40Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+10
64.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
50
+15
65.5%
Oregon Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the ORE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
66.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 10 yds to the ORE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
66.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the ORE 22Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+5
69.6%
Will Nixon run for 5 yds to the ORE 17Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+17
79.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 17 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13DOWNS
14 plays · 67 yds · 6:4723% → 19%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.9%
Bucky Irving run for 6 yds to the ORE 31Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
76.4%
Bucky Irving run for 2 yds to the ORE 33Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
77.6%
Jordan James run for 10 yds to the ORE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
76.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 3 yds to the ORE 46Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+8
76.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 8 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
76.0%
Bucky Irving run for 2 yds to the WASH 44Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+19
76.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 19 yds to the WASH 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
74.8%
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the WASH 24Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+9
75.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 9 yds to the WASH 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
75.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 2 yds to the WASH 13Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+2
76.4%
Bucky Irving run for 2 yds to the WASH 11Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+3
78.2%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the WASH 8Similar
Q3 3:30
4TH & 3
OPP 8
0
81.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Troy FranklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5684% → 83%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
83.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+4
83.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 4 yds to the WASH 13Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
83.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Giles JacksonSimilar
Q3 2:28
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
82.8%
Jack McCallister punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 0:4020% → 42%
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
50
+4
80.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 4 yds to the WASH 46Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+16
80.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 16 yds to the WASH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
58.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 30 yds for a TD (Bo Nix pass to Tez Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3965% → 62%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 5 yds to the WASH 30Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
65.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
63.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:48
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
62.0%
Jack McCallister punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the ORE 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:3235% → 69%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
64.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 3 yds to the ORE 23Similar
Q3 0:06
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
65.1%
Jordan James run for 6 yds to the ORE 29Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+8
64.9%
Jordan James run for 8 yds to the ORE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+49
64.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 49 yds to the WASH 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
59.2%
Bucky Irving run for 4 yds to the WASH 10Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
31.2%
Jordan James run for 10 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18DOWNS
16 plays · 58 yds · 6:0744% → 40%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
44.1%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the WASH 38Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+12
41.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
50
+2
45.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the ORE 48Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
45.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+13
43.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 13 yds to the ORE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
48.0%
Oregon Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Trikweze Bridges) to the ORE 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
48.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the ORE 16Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
47.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
44.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:15
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+8
41.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 8 yds to the ORE 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
47.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the ORE 1 Dillon Johnson fumbled, recovered by WASH Dillon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
47.0%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORE 2Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
43.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the ORE 1Similar
Q4 6:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
39.8%
Tybo Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORE 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19DOWNS
14 plays · 51 yds · 4:0473% → 84%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
27.2%
Jordan James run for 5 yds to the ORE 7Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+3
26.9%
Bo Nix run for 3 yds to the ORE 10Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+5
28.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 5 yds to the ORE 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
23.9%
Jordan James run for 5 yds to the ORE 20Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+1
23.1%
Bo Nix run for 1 yd to the ORE 21Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+25
24.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 25 yds to the ORE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
16.9%
Bucky Irving run for no gain to the ORE 46Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
14.9%
Bucky Irving run for 8 yds to the WASH 46Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 2
OPP 46
-1
14.4%
Jordan James run for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 47Similar
Q4 2:11
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
16.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Tez JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 20TD
2 plays · 53 yds · 0:1128% → 90%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+35
27.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 35 yds to the ORE 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
89.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 18 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21MISSED FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 1:1520% → 26%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 3 yds to the ORE 28Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
78.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 5 yds to the ORE 33Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
80.1%
Bucky Irving run for 12 yds to the ORE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
78.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 5
50
+1
74.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jordan James for 1 yd to the WASH 49Similar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+9
76.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 9 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
73.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 15 yds to the WASH 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
67.5%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
69.7%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+43
74.0%
Camden Lewis 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:38
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 18 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
+62.2
TD · Q4 12:58
Jordan James run for 10 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
-28.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+26
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com