Oregon

Profile vs. FBS, 2026

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1240th
  Defense+0.0272nd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.4%34th
  Defense39.0%64th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3991st
  Defense+1.1863rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.0710th
  Defense−0.0273rd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2962nd
  Defense+0.0674th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.0%45th
  Defense42.7%74th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense27.4%27th
  Defense30.0%42nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8023rd
  Defense2.6876th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.7%28th
  Defense18.2%45th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.5%51st
  Defense16.2%55th

Percentiles among the 138 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2026

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Oregon allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   BOIS
2. L
   OKST
3. W
   PRST
4. W
   USC
5. L
   UCLA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Oregon.

Players, 2026

1. Dante MooreQB86 plays · +0.143 pts/play · 84th of 192 QBs
   0.23WAR0.10 to 0.35
2. Dierre Hill Jr.RB62 plays · +0.116 pts/play · 38th of 320 RBs
   0.13WAR0.09 to 0.17
3. Dylan RaiolaQB46 plays · +0.118 pts/play · 133rd of 192 QBs
   0.10WAR0.04 to 0.16
4. Jordon DavisonRB49 plays · +0.107 pts/play · 84th of 320 RBs
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.13
5. Evan StewartWR36 plays · +0.137 pts/play · 46th of 364 WRs
   0.09WAR0.04 to 0.14
6. Jamari JohnsonTE15 plays · +0.225 pts/play · 7th of 164 TEs
   0.06WAR0.04 to 0.09
7. Dakorien MooreWR28 plays · +0.105 pts/play · 136th of 364 WRs
   0.06WAR0.01 to 0.10
8. Brock ThomasQB18 plays · +0.109 pts/play · 173rd of 192 QBs
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.06

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Oregon's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2026

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  9849843rd of 138Roster talent: 984, 3rd of 138 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  2932935th of 138Recruiting: 293, 5th of 138 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  75%75%17th of 136Returning production: 75%, 17th of 136 in FBS
• SP+ rating so far

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +21.0+21.012th of 138SP+ rating so far: +21.0, 12th of 138 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 138 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion so far

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2026

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Oregon's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.06 of the 0.07 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at USCQ2 0:01 4th & 1 at USC 1, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−4.0 pts
2. vs UCLAQ4 5:16 4th & 8 at UCLA 8, down 11Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.5 pts
3. at OKSTQ4 6:48 4th & 8 at ORE 33, down 5Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.5 pts
4. vs UCLAQ1 8:10 4th & 4 at ORE 47, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2026

128th of 138 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Oregon's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   BOIS
2. L

   OKST
3. W

   PRST
4. W

   USC
5. L

   UCLA

What moved it, 2026

Every game starts at Oregon's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.24
• Possession & field position−0.04
• Clock−0.02
• Timeouts−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.88

Game by game

• BOISW 34-27 vs BOIS94% → 96%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +12, Timeouts +1
• OKSTL 31-39 at OKST96% → 3%Before kickoff +46 · On the field −93: Scoreboard −41, Timeouts −2
• PRSTW 84-0 vs PRST100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0
• USCW 41-27 at USC58% → 98%Before kickoff +8 · On the field +40: Scoreboard +47, Clock +3
• UCLAL 15-17 vs UCLA80% → 13%Before kickoff +30 · On the field −67: Scoreboard −42, Clock −4

Points of win probability, from Oregon's side.

Closest call

ORE 44-41 WSU (2022) - Oregon dropped to a 0.8% win probability before pulling it out.