Oregon

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.4199th
  Defense+0.1547th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense52.2%99th
  Defense45.0%27th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2777th
  Defense+1.1282nd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.3399th
  Defense+0.0665th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.5399th
  Defense+0.2531st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense56.2%98th
  Defense47.8%44th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense41.4%96th
  Defense38.8%10th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.7999th
  Defense3.0628th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense12.0%99th
  Defense18.3%35th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense1.3%96th
  Defense1.2%2nd

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Oregon allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   SDAK
2. W
   MSU
3. W
   WYO
4. W
   WSU
5. L
   ARIZ
6. W
   UCLA
7. W
   WASH
8. W
   CAL
9. W
   STAN
10. W
    UTAH
11. W
    COLO
12. W
    ORST
13. W
    ARIZ
14. W
    FSU
15. L
    OSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Oregon.

Players, 2014

1. Marcus MariotaQB414 plays · +0.362 pts/play · 3rd of 199 QBs
   2.80WAR2.11 to 3.51
2. Royce FreemanRB177 plays · +0.095 pts/play · 58th of 350 RBs
   0.32WAR0.16 to 0.48
3. Thomas TynerRB88 plays · +0.123 pts/play · 114th of 350 RBs
   0.20WAR0.14 to 0.26
4. Byron MarshallWR98 plays · +0.100 pts/play · 81st of 469 WRs
   0.18WAR0.06 to 0.32
5. Dwayne StanfordWR41 plays · +0.168 pts/play · 154th of 469 WRs
   0.13WAR0.08 to 0.19
6. Darren Carrington IIWR26 plays · +0.246 pts/play · 171st of 469 WRs
   0.12WAR0.08 to 0.17
7. Aidan SchneiderPK11 plays · +0.493 pts/play · 65th of 114 kickers
   0.10WAR0.08 to 0.13
8. Devon AllenWR46 plays · +0.106 pts/play · 225th of 469 WRs
   0.09WAR0.03 to 0.16

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Oregon's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Oregon's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.04 of the 0.09 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs ARIZQ4 13:26 4th & 4 at ARIZ 4, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
2. at UTAHQ3 5:57 4th & 14 at UTAH 31, up 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.6 pts
3. at CALQ4 9:01 4th & 1 at ORE 49, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
4. at UTAHQ1 0:48 4th & 19 at UTAH 34, down 7Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.8 pts
5. vs ARIZQ4 8:39 4th & 11 at ARIZ 37, down 7Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.7 pts
6. vs MSUQ2 13:37 4th & 2 at MSU 10, up 8Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
7. at OSUQ3 6:39 4th & 4 at OSU 6, down 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
8. at UTAHQ4 14:12 4th & 4 at UTAH 25, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

40th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Oregon's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   SDAK
2. W

   MSU
3. W

   WYO
4. W

   WSU
5. L

   ARIZ
6. W

   UCLA
7. W

   WASH
8. W

   CAL
9. W

   STAN
10. W

    UTAH
11. W

    COLO
12. W

    ORST
13. W

    ARIZ
14. W

    FSU
15. L

    OSU

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Oregon's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.61
• Clock+0.05
• Timeouts+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−1.20

Game by game

• SDAKW 62-13 vs SDAK100% → 98%Before kickoff +50 · On the field −1: Scoreboard +3
• MSUW 46-27 vs MSU75% → 99%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +27, Timeouts +1
• WYOW 48-14 vs WYO99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +1
• WSUW 38-31 at WSU89% → 96%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +22, Clock +1
• ARIZL 24-31 vs ARIZ93% → 4%Before kickoff +43 · On the field −89: Scoreboard −52, Clock −3
• UCLAW 42-30 at UCLA56% → 97%Before kickoff +6 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +46, Clock +3
• WASHW 45-20 vs WASH91% → 99%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +14, Timeouts −1
• CALW 59-41 at CAL86% → 99%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +13: Scoreboard +22, Clock +1
• STANW 45-16 vs STAN77% → 100%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +25
• UTAHW 51-27 at UTAH77% → 100%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +29, Clock +2
• COLOW 44-10 vs COLO98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +4
• ORSTW 47-19 at ORST88% → 100%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +17
• ARIZW 51-13 vs ARIZ85% → 100%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +18
• FSUW 59-20 at FSU69% → 100%Before kickoff +19 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +36, Clock +1
• OSUL 20-42 at OSU64% → 0%Before kickoff +14 · On the field −63: Scoreboard −51, Clock −1

Points of win probability, from Oregon's side.

Closest call

ORE 44-41 WSU (2022) - Oregon dropped to a 0.8% win probability before pulling it out.