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ARIZ

Arizona 31 at Oregon 24

ORE
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 2, 2014 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:58 · Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 4 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Pregame prior+42.0Home team on offense+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:58: Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK) — ORE win probability +9.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:27: Nick Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +16.5 pts (now 38%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:33: Anu Solomon pass complete to Nick Wilson for 34 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +19.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:21: Marcus Mariota pass complete to Keanon Lowe for 9 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK) — ORE win probability +29.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:54: Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +32.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:58ORE 4th & 4 at ARIZ 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    91.6%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:32ORE 4th & 3 at ARIZ 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    91.3%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:27ARIZ 4th & 5 at ORE 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:33ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:01ORE 4th & 16 at ORE 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:22ARIZ 4th & 19 at ARIZ 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:12ARIZ 4th & 4 at ORE 49, down 4
    Close callPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:11ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:28ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:35ARIZ 4th & 1 at ORE 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%−0.6
    70% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−2.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:46ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:26ORE 4th & 4 at ARIZ 4, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.3%−1.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−12.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:58ARIZ 4th & 2 at ORE 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    63.3%−3.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    62.1%−4.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:39ORE 4th & 11 at ARIZ 37, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.9%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%
    40% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 14:37ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:52ARIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:58ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:27ARIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:33ARIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:21ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−0.8
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:54ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.8 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%−1.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1DOWNS
12 plays · 44 yds · 3:1393% → 92%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.9%
Royce Freeman run for 8 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+19
92.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Keanon Lowe for 19 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
92.8%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
92.7%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 3
OPP 41
-1
92.6%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Reggie Gilbert for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 42Similar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 4
OPP 42
+4
92.5%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 4 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
92.5%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
92.4%
Marcus Mariota run for 6 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+1
92.3%
Thomas Tyner run for 1 yd to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 3
OPP 31
0
92.2%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 2:578% → 9%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
92.0%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 9 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+17
91.8%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 17 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
91.7%
Anu Solomon run for 2 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+1
91.6%
Anu Solomon run for 1 yd to the Oregn 40Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+9
91.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 9 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
91.3%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+12
91.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 12 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
91.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 5 yds to the Oregn 11Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
90.9%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to David RichardsSimilar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
91.0%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to David RichardsSimilar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
91.0%
Casey Skowron 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3891% → 91%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
91.0%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
90.9%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
90.7%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
90.6%
Ian Wheeler punt for 45 yds, downed at the Ariz 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4INT
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:109% → 10%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
90.7%
Nick Wilson run for 14 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
90.5%
Anu Solomon run for 3 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+4
90.2%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
90.1%
Anu Solomon pass intercepted Reggie Daniels return for no gain to the Oregn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 2:0290% → 89%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
90.1%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
90.0%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron Marshall, broken up by Jarvis McCall Jr.Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+15
89.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Keanon Lowe for 15 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
89.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 4 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-5
90.0%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Hroniss Grasu) to the Oregn 47Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 11
OWN 47
-3
89.6%
Marcus Mariota run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 44Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 14
OWN 44
-2
89.1%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Derrick Turituri for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 16
OWN 42
0
88.8%
Ian Wheeler punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:2911% → 11%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.2%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
89.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 26Similar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-10
89.0%
Anu Solomon sacked by DeForest Buckner for a loss of 10 yards to the Ariz 16Similar
Q1 2:22
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
88.9%
Drew Riggleman punt for 59 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3288% → 90%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.2%
Thomas Tyner run for 1 yd to the Oregn 26Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
88.0%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 15 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
88.4%
Thomas Tyner run for 1 yd to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+7
87.8%
Marcus Mariota run for 7 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q1 0:24
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+3
87.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 3 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
88.0%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 12 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
87.9%
Royce Freeman run for 10 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
89.8%
Royce Freeman pass complete to Marcus Mariota for 26 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:1311% → 12%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.2%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+16
89.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 16 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
88.5%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 2 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
88.3%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb Jones, broken up by Troy HillSimilar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 8
OWN 47
-15
88.5%
Solomon, Anu rush for 17 yards to the OREGON36, PENALTY ARIZONA personal foul (Ebbele, Fabbians) 15 yards to the ARIZONA32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 23
OWN 32
+19
89.0%
Anu Solomon run for 19 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q2 12:12
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
88.4%
Anu Solomon punt for 48 yds, downed at the Oregn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:5688% → 87%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
88.3%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 3Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+14
88.1%
Royce Freeman run for 14 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
88.2%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+2
88.0%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
87.5%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Darren CarringtonSimilar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
87.0%
Ian Wheeler punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3613% → 13%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
87.4%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 38Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+6
87.0%
Nick Wilson run for 6 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 3
OWN 44
-1
86.4%
Anu Solomon sacked by T.J. Daniel for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 43Similar
Q2 8:28
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
87.1%
Drew Riggleman punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11FUMBLE
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:3587% → 88%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
87.2%
Marcus Mariota run for 1 yd to the Oregn 21Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
87.3%
Thomas Tyner run for 5 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+19
86.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 19 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
88.0%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 11 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
88.1%
Mariota, Marcus pass complete to Brown, Pharaoh for 10 yards to the ARIZONA34, PENALTY OREGON ineligible downfield on pass (Stevens, Hamani) 5 yards to the ARIZONA49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+7
87.5%
Thomas Tyner run for 7 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
87.8%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+4
87.4%
Byron Marshall run for 4 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+5
86.9%
Mariota, Marcus pass incomplete to Allen, Devon (McKnight, Jonathan), PENALTY ARIZONA pass interference (McKnight, Jonathan) 5 yards to the ARIZONA33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
87.8%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Dan Pettinato for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 35 Marcus Mariota fumbled, forced by Dan Pettinato, recovered by Ariz Parker Zellers , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12FUMBLE
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:1315% → 19%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
85.5%
Anu Solomon run for 1 yd to the Ariz 36Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+21
85.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Anu Solomon for 21 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
84.0%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 9 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
82.9%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for no gain to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
83.3%
Anu Solomon run for 2 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
82.8%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb Jones, broken up by Ifo Ekpre-OlomuSimilar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
82.8%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+9
83.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Terris Jones-Grigsby for 9 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+2
83.4%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 2 yds to the Oregn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
81.6%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 3 yds to the Oregn 18Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+11
81.4%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 11 yds to the Oregn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
81.1%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 10 Terris Jones-Grigsby fumbled, forced by Tony Washington, recovered by Oregn Derrick MaloneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:1185% → 84%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
84.7%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 4
OWN 16
-8
84.5%
Freeman, Royce rush for 19 yards to the OREGON35, PENALTY OREGON holding 8 yards to the OREGON8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+15
84.1%
ARIZONA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:3816% → 29%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+26
83.8%
Nick Wilson run for 26 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
81.9%
Nick Wilson run for 9 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+1
81.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 1 yd to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
81.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 14 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
80.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 13 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+14
79.9%
Solomon, Anu pass incomplete to Jones, Cayleb, PENALTY OREGON pass interference (Walker, Joe) 14 yards to the OREGON3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
70.6%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 2:4075% → 86%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
74.5%
Byron Marshall run for 2 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+13
74.2%
Royce Freeman run for 13 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
76.0%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+2
76.2%
Thomas Tyner run for 2 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+23
75.1%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 23 yds to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
76.8%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
76.6%
Thomas Tyner run for 5 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+11
75.2%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron Marshall. ARIZONA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jourdon Grandon) to the Ariz 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
76.4%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Ariz 6Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
86.1%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16TD
11 plays · 93 yds · 3:2317% → 38%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
83.3%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 3 yds to the Ariz 10Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+12
82.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 12 yds to the Ariz 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
82.5%
Anu Solomon run for 1 yd to the Ariz 23 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (Rodney Hardrick) to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
81.3%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 3 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+2
80.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 2 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+54
80.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Terris Jones-Grigsby for 54 yds to the Oregn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
77.7%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb Jones, broken up by Troy HillSimilar
Q3 7:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
77.6%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 5Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
78.3%
Solomon, Anu pass incomplete to Grant, Samajie, PENALTY OREGON pass interference (Ekpre-Olomu, Ifo) 3 yards to the OREGON2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
61.9%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2668% → 65%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.1%
Byron Marshall run for 6 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
70.0%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 29Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
66.4%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
64.5%
Ian Wheeler punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0636% → 64%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
63.6%
Nick Wilson run for 15 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
62.1%
Samajie Grant run for 4 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
59.9%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+4
60.0%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
58.9%
Anu Solomon run for 1 yd to the Ariz 48Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+17
58.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 17 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
55.8%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+34
36.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nick Wilson for 34 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19FG
10 plays · 72 yds · 2:5239% → 45%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
38.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 16 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
40.5%
Thomas Tyner run for 22 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
42.5%
Thomas Tyner run for 2 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+34
41.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 34 yds to the Ariz 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
43.6%
Thomas Tyner run for no gain to the Ariz 2Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
42.6%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Ariz 2Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
40.1%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Jake Pisarcik) to the Ariz 7Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
39.0%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Ariz 4Similar
Q4 13:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
45.3%
Matt Wogan 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:1263% → 67%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
37.1%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 4 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+23
35.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 23 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
32.5%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 4 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
31.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Samajie GrantSimilar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+4
32.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Terris Jones-Grigsby for 4 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 2
OPP 34
0
33.4%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for no gain to the Oregn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 2:2840% → 73%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
39.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
50
0
41.4%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 10
50
+14
40.3%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 14 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
41.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Keanon Lowe for 2 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+1
43.8%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Ariz 33Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 7
OPP 33
-4
40.2%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Cody Ippolito for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 37Similar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 11
OPP 37
+28
35.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 28 yds to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
43.8%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Pharaoh BrownSimilar
Q4 8:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
73.3%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Keanon Lowe for 9 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22TD
18 plays · 71 yds · 5:1239% → 90%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
60.7%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for no gain to the Ariz 29Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+9
60.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 9 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+5
55.5%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 5 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
54.6%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Austin HillSimilar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
55.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 6 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+28
53.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Terris Jones-Grigsby for 28 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
49.5%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-10
49.6%
Anu Solomon sacked by Rodney Hardrick for a loss of 10 yards to the Oregn 33 ARIZONA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Anu Solomon) to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 20
OPP 33
+24
55.1%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 24 yds to the Oregn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
48.4%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 1 yd to the Oregn 8Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
48.0%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Austin HillSimilar
Q4 4:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
49.7%
Anu Solomon sacked by Tony Washington for a loss of 9 yards to the Oregn 17. OREGON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tony Washington) to the Oregn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
47.1%
Solomon, Anu pass incomplete to Jones, Cayleb, PENALTY OREGON pass interference (Hill, Troy) 6 yards to the OREGON2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
46.6%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for no gain to the Oregn 2Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
46.1%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 1 yd to the Oregn 1Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.3%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23FUMBLE
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:3121% → 18%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
20.7%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Royce FreemanSimilar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+14
18.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 14 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
19.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 12 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
18.1%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Scooby Wright III for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 34 Marcus Mariota fumbled, forced by Scooby Wright III, recovered by Ariz Scooby Wright III , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24END OF HALF
8 plays · 6 yds · 1:4391% → 96%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
8.8%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 2 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+3
8.6%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 3 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+9
4.5%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 9 yds to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
4.3%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 25Similar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 15
OPP 25
-1
4.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 26Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 16
OPP 26
-2
4.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:54
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
-32.6
TD · Q4 8:21
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Keanon Lowe for 9 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)
+29.5
TD · Q3 1:33
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nick Wilson for 34 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
-19.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com