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ORE

Oregon 20 at Ohio State 42

OSU
2014 · CFP National Championship Game · Jan 12, 2015 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:10 · Thomas Tyner run for 2 yds to the OhSt 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Home team on offense+2.2Pregame prior−9.5Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:08: Nick Vannett 1 Yd pass from Cardale Jones (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +4.6 pts (now 48%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:49: Cardale Jones 1 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:23: Byron Marshall 70 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +18.4 pts (now 46%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:00: Ezekiel Elliott 9 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +20.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:44: Ezekiel Elliott 2 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +7.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 9:10OSU 4th & 5 at OSU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:52ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:00OSU 4th & 2 at ORE 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    35.2%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    35.0%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:35ORE 4th & 12 at ORE 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:09ORE 4th & 11 at ORE 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:10ORE 4th & 3 at OSU 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    51.9%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    47.4%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:05ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−1.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:48ORE 4th & 4 at OSU 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.2
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−5.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:14OSU 4th & 2 at OSU 21, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−1.0
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:11OSU 4th & 1 at ORE 33, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.5%−2.9
    49% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:53OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    57.4%−2.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:39ORE 4th & 4 at OSU 6, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.7%−0.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−9.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:57ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 41, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−3.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:40ORE 4th & 7 at ORE 26, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:17OSU 4th & 6 at ORE 46, up 15
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:45ORE 4th & 11 at ORE 14, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%−<0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ORE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:21ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:36OSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:08OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:49OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:23ORE Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:00OSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:44OSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:28OSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:2964% → 64%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
36.5%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 8 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
36.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 8 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
36.6%
Thomas Tyner run for 4 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+12
36.7%
Thomas Tyner run for 12 yds to the OhSt 43 Thomas Tyner fumbled, recovered by Oregn Thomas Tyner for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
36.8%
Thomas Tyner run for 6 yds to the OhSt 37Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+6
36.8%
Thomas Tyner run for 6 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
36.9%
Marcus Mariota run for 7 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+7
36.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Charles Nelson for 7 yds to the OhSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
37.0%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the OhSt 15Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+8
37.1%
Marcus Mariota run for 8 yds to the OhSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
36.3%
Keanon Lowe 7 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:0537% → 37%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
36.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
36.6%
Cardale Jones run for 4 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
36.6%
Cardale Jones run for 6 yds to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
36.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
37.0%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Jalin Marshall for no gain to the OhSt 40Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+2
36.7%
Cardale Jones run for 2 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
36.6%
Cameron Johnston punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Johnathan Loyd at the Oregn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 35 yds · 1:0963% → 64%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+28
36.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Keanon Lowe for 28 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
36.0%
Thomas Tyner run for 4 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+3
35.9%
Thomas Tyner run for 3 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
36.0%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
36.2%
Ian Wheeler punt for 52 yds, downed at the OhSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 97 yds · 3:0836% → 42%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
36.4%
Cardale Jones run for 2 yds to the OhSt 5Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 8
OWN 5
0
36.4%
Cardale Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+26
36.1%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Corey Smith for 26 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+26
36.6%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 26 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
37.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
37.5%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Ezekiel ElliottSimilar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+7
37.2%
Cardale Jones run for 7 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+2
37.0%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 2 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
38.1%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Curtis SamuelSimilar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+33
41.6%
Ezekiel Elliott 33 Yd Run, OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Joe Burger) to the Oregn 13 (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 0
OPP 3
-10
42.1%
OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Joe Burger) to the Oregn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:5060% → 59%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
40.1%
Royce Freeman run for 8 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+5
39.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Evan Baylis for 5 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
40.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Evan Baylis for 1 yd to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-3
40.4%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
41.1%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 12
OWN 28
+17
41.3%
Ian Wheeler punt for 35 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 17 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 1:2043% → 48%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
42.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+7
42.7%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for 7 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
43.4%
Jones, Cardale pass incomplete to Smith, Devin (Hill, Troy), PENALTY OREGON pass interference (Hill, Troy) 15 yards to the OREGON18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
43.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 17 yds to the Oregn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.1%
Nick Vannett 1 Yd pass from Cardale Jones (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:5354% → 52%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
46.4%
Thomas Tyner run for 11 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
46.0%
Marcus Mariota run for 7 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
45.4%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q1 0:24
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-5
45.6%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Hamani Stevens) to the Oregn 40Similar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
46.4%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron Marshall, broken up by Tyvis PowellSimilar
Q1 0:18
4TH & 6
OWN 40
-5
47.3%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (DeForest Buckner) to the Oregn 35Similar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+12
47.9%
Ian Wheeler punt for 40 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 12 yds to the OhSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:1148% → 50%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
48.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the OhSt 38Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
48.2%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Nick VannettSimilar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+17
47.7%
Cardale Jones run for 17 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
49.6%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for 6 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-1
50.0%
Cardale Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 40 Cardale Jones fumbled, recovered by Oregn Alex BalducciSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:3053% → 51%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
47.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Evan Baylis for 7 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+4
46.6%
Thomas Tyner run for 4 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
46.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 20 yds to the OhSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
45.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 1 yd to the OhSt 27Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+17
46.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 17 yds to the OhSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
46.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Evan Baylis for 3 yds to the OhSt 7Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
46.5%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Evan BaylisSimilar
Q2 11:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
47.5%
Marcus Mariota run for 4 yds to the OhSt 3Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
48.8%
Thomas Tyner run for 2 yds to the OhSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 90 yds · 2:2450% → 54%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
50.3%
OHIO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Michael Bennett) to the OhSt 1Similar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
50.6%
Cardale Jones run for 1 yd to the OhSt 2Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+26
50.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 26 yds to the OhSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
51.9%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Nick Vannett for 8 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+5
53.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+50
54.1%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Corey Smith for 47 yds Corey Smith fumbled, forced by Troy Hill, recovered by Oregn Rodney Hardrick , return for no gain to the Oregn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3548% → 44%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
52.4%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 12Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+2
52.7%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 5
OWN 14
-5
54.4%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Adolphus Washington for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 9Similar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 10
OWN 9
0
55.7%
Ian Wheeler punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jalin Marshall at the Oregn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:0857% → 66%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
56.7%
Cardale Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-2
56.5%
Jalin Marshall run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 49Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+45
55.6%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Devin Smith for 45 yds to the Oregn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
58.2%
Cardale Jones run for 2 yds to the Oregn 4Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
58.8%
Cardale Jones run for 3 yds to the Oregn 1Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.3%
Cardale Jones 1 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 3:5435% → 36%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.7%
Marcus Mariota run for 2 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
64.9%
Mariota, Marcus pass complete to Marshall, Byron for 7 yards to the OREGON34, PENALTY OREGON holding (Fisher, Jake) 10 yards to the OREGON17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+7
65.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 7 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+28
66.3%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 28 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
64.2%
Thomas Tyner run for 3 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+15
64.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 15 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
63.8%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Vonn Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 31Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+2
64.8%
Marcus Mariota run for 2 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+14
66.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Charles Nelson for 14 yds to the OhSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
64.5%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the OhSt 12Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+3
64.9%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the OhSt 9Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
66.7%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Evan BaylisSimilar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+26
64.0%
Aidan Schneider 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:1967% → 68%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
67.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the OhSt 14Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+3
68.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the OhSt 17Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+4
68.5%
Cardale Jones run for 4 yds to the OhSt 21Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
68.0%
Cameron Johnston punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Johnathan Loyd at the Oregn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:0929% → 30%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
70.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 13 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
70.1%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Thomas Tyner for 3 yds to the Oregn 48 lat. to Byron Marshall for 1 yd to the Oregn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16INT
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:2067% → 72%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
67.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 22 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
69.3%
Cardale Jones run for 5 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+6
69.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
70.5%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Chris SeisaySimilar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+8
70.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 8 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+1
70.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+1
69.4%
Cardale Jones run for 1 yd to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
72.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 15
OPP 37
0
72.0%
Cardale Jones pass intercepted Danny Mattingly return for no gain to the Oregn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
1 play · 70 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
53.6%
Byron Marshall 70 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18FUMBLE
7 plays · -2 yds · 2:5655% → 62%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
54.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 13 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
59.3%
Cardale Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 37Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+9
58.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
60.7%
Cardale Jones run for 1 yd to the OhSt 47Similar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+2
60.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-26
62.4%
Cardale Jones sacked by Tyson Coleman for a loss of 17 yards to the OhSt 32 Cardale Jones fumbled, forced by Tyson Coleman, recovered by Oregn Arik Armstead , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3648% → 48%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
51.7%
Byron Marshall run for 9 yds to the OhSt 14Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+2
51.8%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the OhSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
52.0%
Thomas Tyner run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 14Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+8
52.6%
Marcus Mariota run for 8 yds to the OhSt 6Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
53.9%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Evan Baylis, broken up by Eli AppleSimilar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+23
51.9%
Aidan Schneider 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:3055% → 83%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
54.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 8 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
57.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
56.6%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for 17 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
59.6%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 47Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+10
59.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 10 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+2
59.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
61.8%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 8 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 2
OPP 27
-1
62.0%
Cardale Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 28Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+3
60.7%
Cardale Jones run for 3 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
62.9%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 5 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+11
63.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 11 yds to the Oregn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
83.2%
Ezekiel Elliott 9 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:5121% → 19%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+20
78.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Keanon Lowe for 20 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
77.3%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
78.0%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Dwayne Stanford, broken up by Darron LeeSimilar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
79.0%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q4 13:57
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+3
80.8%
Ian Wheeler punt for 38 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 3 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 4:0682% → 95%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
82.2%
Jalin Marshall run for 5 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+12
82.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 12 yds to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
84.6%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for 23 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
85.5%
Corey Smith run for 3 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+2
85.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+19
85.4%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 19 yds to the Oregn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
86.8%
Curtis Samuel run for 6 yds to the Oregn 6Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+4
87.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the Oregn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.9%
Ezekiel Elliott 2 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 16 yds · 1:457% → 6%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
93.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Evan Baylis for 9 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 1
OWN 19
-5
93.0%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 14Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+9
93.6%
Thomas Tyner run for 9 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
93.6%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-11
93.7%
OREGON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jake Fisher) to the Oregn 12Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 21
OWN 12
-5
93.8%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Tyrell Crosby) to the Oregn 7Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 26
OWN 7
0
94.1%
Jeff Lockie pass incomplete to Keanon LoweSimilar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 26
OWN 7
+19
94.5%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 19 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q4 7:40
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
94.1%
Ian Wheeler punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jalin Marshall at the OhSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:1896% → 97%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
95.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+8
95.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
50
0
96.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
50
+3
96.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+6
96.8%
Cardale Jones run for 6 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 1
OPP 41
-5
96.5%
OHIO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 46Similar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
96.6%
Cameron Johnston punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Johnathan Loyd at the Oregn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:224% → 3%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
96.2%
Mariota, Marcus pass complete to Stanford, Dwayne for 29 yards to the OREGON44, PENALTY OREGON holding (Crosby, Tyrell) 7 yards to the OREGON8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 17
OWN 8
+7
96.5%
Marcus Mariota run for 7 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-1
96.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Thomas Tyner for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 14Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 11
OWN 14
0
96.8%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 11
OWN 14
0
96.9%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 26TD
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:1298% → 100%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
97.7%
Cardale Jones run for 2 yds to the Oregn 12Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+5
98.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+2
98.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the Oregn 5Similar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+3
98.3%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Sam Kamp) to the Oregn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the Oregn 1Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Ezekiel Elliott 1 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 27INT
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:171% → 1%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
99.5%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 23 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.5%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Keanon LoweSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
99.5%
Marcus Mariota pass intercepted Eli Apple return for 8 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:00
Ezekiel Elliott 9 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)
+20
TD · Q3 11:23
Byron Marshall 70 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick)
-18.4
TD · Q4 9:44
Ezekiel Elliott 2 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)
+7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com