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MSU

Michigan State 27 at Oregon 46

ORE
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:33 · Ian Wheeler punt for 37 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 3 yds to the MchSt 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Pregame prior+12.4Home team on offense−5.3Score differential−1.9Garbage-time factor−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:26: Tony Lippett 7 Yd pass from Connor Cook (Michael Geiger Kick) — MSU win probability +8.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:18: Josiah Price 7 Yd pass from Connor Cook (Michael Geiger Kick) — MSU win probability +14.9 pts (now 50%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:33: Devon Allen 24 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Wogan Kick) — ORE win probability +19.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:34: Keanon Lowe 37 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Wogan Kick) — ORE win probability +16.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:19: Royce Freeman 38 Yd Run (Matt Wogan Kick) — ORE win probability +13.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 8 of 9MSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 14:01MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:33ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:59MSU 4th & 4 at ORE 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:17ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:39ORE 4th & 1 at MSU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    74.2%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:27MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 46, down 8
    Close callPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:37ORE 4th & 2 at MSU 10, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.6%−0.6
    88% to make
    Punt
    73.6%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:40MSU 4th & 9 at ORE 17, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    16.6%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:27ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:33ORE 4th & 11 at ORE 21, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−2.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:55MSU 4th & 8 at ORE 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−8.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:59ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 38, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:46MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 31, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−3.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:24MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 15, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−5.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:49MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 12, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−4.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:57MSU 4th & 2 at ORE 24, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−0.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−4.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:07ORE 4th & 7 at ORE 26, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:25ORE 4th & 2 at MSU 14, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    96.8%−0.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 6MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:39ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    77.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:57MSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:12ORE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:26MSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:18MSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:33ORE Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:34ORE Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:19ORE Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:25ORE Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5925% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.5%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
75.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
75.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+11
75.3%
Mike Sadler punt for 37 yds , Ifo Ekpre-Olomu returns for 11 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2875% → 75%
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
75.3%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
75.3%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Keanon LoweSimilar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
75.2%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
75.1%
Ian Wheeler punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:3425% → 26%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
75.1%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+22
75.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 22 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
74.7%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+3
74.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 3 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
74.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
74.4%
Mike Sadler punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4275% → 74%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
74.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 8 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 2
OWN 28
-3
74.7%
Thomas Tyner run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 25Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+9
74.3%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Keanon Lowe for 9 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
74.5%
Thomas Tyner run for 2 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-5
74.5%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+2
74.2%
Marcus Mariota run for 2 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+5
73.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Royce Freeman for 5 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
73.7%
Ian Wheeler punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5INT
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:3626% → 28%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
73.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 17 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
73.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 22 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
72.9%
Jeremy Langford run for 7 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+4
72.7%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
72.6%
Jeremy Langford run for no gain to the Oregn 38Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
72.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Jeremy LangfordSimilar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+36
72.5%
Connor Cook pass intercepted Erick Dargan return for 36 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:0274% → 77%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+22
74.1%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 22 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
74.2%
Marcus Mariota run for 11 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
74.1%
Marcus Mariota run for no gain to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (3 Yards) to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
74.1%
Thomas Tyner run for 2 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.0%
Thomas Tyner run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
73.6%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q1 3:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.1%
Thomas Tyner 1 Yd Run (Taylor Alie Pass to DeForest Buckner for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:1223% → 23%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
76.7%
Nick Hill run for 8 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
76.2%
Nick Hill run for 4 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
76.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 8 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 2
OWN 45
-2
76.2%
Nick Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+3
76.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 3 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q1 0:27
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
76.8%
Mike Sadler punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ifo Ekpre-Olomu at the Oregn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8FG
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:2377% → 80%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
77.0%
Thomas Tyner run for 5 yds to the Oregn 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+64
77.0%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 64 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
78.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 6 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+2
78.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 2 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 2
OPP 10
0
78.0%
Marcus Mariota pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+28
79.5%
Matt Wogan 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 2:2821% → 28%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
78.7%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+17
78.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 17 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
78.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to AJ Troup for 19 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
77.8%
Jeremy Langford run for 7 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+6
77.2%
Jeremy Langford run for 6 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
77.2%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Keith MumpherySimilar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
77.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 9 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+16
72.4%
Jeremy Langford 16 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4573% → 81%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
73.4%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+70
80.8%
Devon Allen 70 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Wogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11FG
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:1522% → 22%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
78.1%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+6
77.9%
Jeremy Langford run for 6 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+5
78.6%
Jeremy Langford run for 5 yds to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
78.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-1
78.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jeremy Langford for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 17Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
79.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+34
78.1%
Michael Geiger 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 1:1979% → 78%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
78.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 4 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-6
78.8%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Lawrence Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 19Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 12
OWN 19
-11
78.3%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Marcus Rush for a loss of 11 yards to the Oregn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:1523% → 32%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
77.1%
Nick Hill run for 5 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+8
76.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 8 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
76.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 19 yds to the Oregn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
76.1%
Nick Hill run for 1 yd to the Oregn 5Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
76.1%
Nick Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 7Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
68.1%
Tony Lippett 7 Yd pass from Connor Cook (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5972% → 71%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.2%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Thomas TynerSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.0%
Thomas Tyner run for 4 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
71.5%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Thomas Tyner for no gain to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+1
70.5%
Ian Wheeler punt for 38 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 1 yd to the MchSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 1:0930% → 50%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
70.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 15 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
68.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 9 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 1
OPP 42
-5
67.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Travis Jackson) to the Oregn 47Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
67.1%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+34
67.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 34 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
65.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 6 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
50.1%
Josiah Price 7 Yd pass from Connor Cook (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
56.5%
Thomas Tyner run for 1 yd to the Oregn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:1357% → 54%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
56.6%
Marcus Mariota pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+2
56.3%
Thomas Tyner run for 2 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q3 14:25
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+7
55.0%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Thomas Tyner for 7 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q3 13:59
4TH & 1
OWN 31
-5
55.2%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 26Similar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 6
OWN 26
-5
54.0%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 21Similar
Q3 13:33
4TH & 11
OWN 21
+3
53.6%
Ian Wheeler punt for 37 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 3 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18FG
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:3850% → 55%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
50.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 11 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
49.1%
Jeremy Langford run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 47Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 13
OPP 47
-4
49.7%
Connor Cook sacked by TEAM for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 49Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 17
OWN 49
+24
51.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 24 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
47.5%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
47.2%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Jamal LylesSimilar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
48.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q3 10:55
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+42
45.3%
Michael Geiger 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:5647% → 43%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
46.8%
Thomas Tyner run for 11 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
47.6%
Thomas Tyner run for 2 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
46.3%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
45.0%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Darren CarringtonSimilar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
43.0%
Ian Wheeler punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:1355% → 57%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
44.6%
Connor Cook sacked by Christian French for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 15Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
44.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Jamal LylesSimilar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+17
45.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 17 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
42.2%
Jeremy Langford run for no gain to the MchSt 32Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-1
42.2%
Jeremy Langford run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 11
OWN 31
0
43.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Trevon PendletonSimilar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 11
OWN 31
+26
43.4%
Mike Sadler punt for 44 yds , Ifo Ekpre-Olomu returns for 26 yds to the OREGON 43 OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Oregn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:1344% → 66%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
44.2%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 4
OWN 47
-6
45.1%
Marcus Mariota sacked by Malik McDowell and Joel Heath for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 41Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+17
42.0%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Royce Freeman for 17 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
45.1%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
44.5%
Thomas Tyner run for 5 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+12
44.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Keanon Lowe for 12 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
46.6%
Thomas Tyner run for 1 yd to the MchSt 24Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+24
65.9%
Devon Allen 24 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Wogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5644% → 42%
Q3 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
55.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
57.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Nick HillSimilar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+43
58.0%
Mike Sadler punt for 43 yds , Ifo Ekpre-Olomu returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 1:5062% → 79%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
62.2%
Marcus Mariota run for 1 yd to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
60.4%
Marcus Mariota pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+11
58.6%
Marcus Mariota run for 11 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
63.2%
Royce Freeman run for 8 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+1
63.5%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+1
62.6%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
78.8%
Keanon Lowe 37 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Wogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:4523% → 21%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
77.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd to the MchSt 14Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
77.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Jeremy LangfordSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 14
-2
78.6%
Connor Cook sacked by Arik Armstead for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 12Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 11
OWN 12
0
79.3%
Mike Sadler punt for 42 yds, downed at the Oregn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25TD
2 plays · 54 yds · 0:3078% → 92%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
78.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 16 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
92.0%
Royce Freeman 38 Yd Run (Matt Wogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:1710% → 7%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
90.2%
R.J. Shelton run for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
50
+9
89.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 9 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+9
89.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 9 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
88.4%
Jeremy Langford run for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 14
OPP 36
+9
90.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 9 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+3
90.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 3 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q4 10:57
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+1
93.1%
Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd to the Oregn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5095% → 95%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
94.6%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 24Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+4
94.8%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 5
OWN 28
-2
95.0%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 26Similar
Q4 9:07
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
94.6%
Ian Wheeler punt for 41 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for no gain to the MchSt 26 OREGON Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the MchSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 28INT
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:116% → 6%
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
94.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 11 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
94.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+10
94.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 10 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
94.1%
Connor Cook pass intercepted Ifo Ekpre-Olomu return for no gain to the Oregn 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 29TD
16 plays · 96 yds · 6:3195% → 100%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
95.3%
Byron Marshall run for 2 yds to the Oregn 6Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+3
95.6%
Byron Marshall run for 3 yds to the Oregn 9Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 5
OWN 9
+15
95.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 15 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
96.2%
Byron Marshall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 22Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 12
OWN 22
-5
96.2%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 17Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 17
OWN 17
+40
96.3%
Marcus Mariota run for 40 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
96.9%
Byron Marshall run for 3 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+18
97.3%
Byron Marshall run for 3 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
97.5%
Freeman, Royce rush for loss of 2 yards to the MICHIGANST24, PENALTY OREGON holding 10 yards to the MICHIGANST32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 20
OPP 32
+5
97.8%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+5
97.9%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+3
98.2%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+5
98.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MchSt 14Similar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+14
99.8%
Royce Freeman run for 14 yds for a TD, (Matt Wogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 30END OF GAME
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:251% → 1%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 9 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
99.2%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
99.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 7 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
99.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 1
50
+5
99.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 5 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.4%
Connor Cook run for 4 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+10
99.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Delton Williams for 10 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:33
Devon Allen 24 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Wogan Kick)
+19.4
TD · Q3 1:34
Keanon Lowe 37 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Matt Wogan Kick)
+16.2
TD · Q2 0:18
Josiah Price 7 Yd pass from Connor Cook (Michael Geiger Kick)
-14.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com