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ARIZ

Arizona 13 at Oregon 51

ORE
2014 · Week 15 · Dec 5, 2014 · Levi's Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG—ORE 83.9%Aidan Schneider 34 Yd Field GoalAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 11:30
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:30 · Aidan Schneider 34 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Pregame prior+33.0Home team on offense+0.3Score differential+0.0Blowout margin−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:27: Marcus Mariota 7 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +5.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:34: Marcus Mariota 4 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +5.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:37: Devon Allen 4 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:34: Cayleb Jones 69 Yd pass from Jesse Scroggins (Casey Skowron Kick) — ARIZ win probability +3.0 pts (now 4%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:59: Darren Carrington 11 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +2.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ARIZ made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 11:30ORE 4th & 5 at ARIZ 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:55ORE 4th & 5 at ARIZ 5, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    80.2%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:26ARIZ 4th & 13 at ORE 37, down 6
    Close callPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    18.4%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:33ORE 4th & 3 at ARIZ 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    81.3%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    80.0%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:07ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:47ORE 4th & 15 at ORE 39, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:17ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 26, down 6
    Close callPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:37ARIZ 4th & 20 at ARIZ 10, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−1.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:23ARIZ 4th & 8 at ARIZ 27, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:57ORE 4th & 24 at ORE 25, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−2.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:45ARIZ 4th & 25 at ARIZ 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−1.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:07ARIZ 4th & 3 at ARIZ 28, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:37ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 47, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.3%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:26ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 26, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:20ORE 4th & 8 at ARIZ 48, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:50ARIZ 4th & 6 at ORE 45, down 37
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:45ORE 4th & 2 at ORE 22, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:19ARIZ 4th & 16 at ORE 36, down 37
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:27ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 49, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:07ORE 4th & 9 at ORE 9, up 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 7:27ORE Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:34ORE Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:37ORE Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:34ARIZ Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:59ORE Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:54ORE Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:12ORE Touchdown, up 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1FUMBLE
11 plays · 64 yds · 3:2085% → 84%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
84.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 14 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
84.5%
Marcus Mariota run for 4 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
84.3%
Marcus Mariota run for 5 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+9
84.3%
Royce Freeman run for 9 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
84.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 4 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+23
84.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 23 yds to the Ariz 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
84.2%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Ariz 19Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
84.1%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron Marshall, broken up by William ParksSimilar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+3
84.0%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Ariz 16Similar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
83.9%
Aidan Schneider 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2FG
12 plays · 32 yds · 3:2084% → 84%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
84.0%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 47Similar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 20
OPP 47
0
83.9%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 20
OPP 47
+6
83.8%
Byron Marshall run for 6 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+18
83.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 18 yds to the Ariz 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
83.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Charles Nelson for 9 yds to the Ariz 14Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 1
OPP 14
0
83.8%
Marcus Mariota pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+4
83.6%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Ariz 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
83.7%
Marcus Mariota run for no gain to the Ariz 10Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
83.6%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q1 8:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
83.4%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Ariz 5Similar
Q1 7:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
83.9%
Aidan Schneider 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 2:0917% → 17%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
83.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 4 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+10
83.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Trey Griffey for 10 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
83.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Austin Hill for 9 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+2
82.9%
Anu Solomon run for 2 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
82.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to DaVonte' Neal for 3 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-10
82.5%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 41Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 17
OPP 41
0
83.1%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Trey GriffeySimilar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 17
OPP 41
+4
83.2%
Anu Solomon run for 4 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q1 5:26
4TH & 13
OPP 37
0
83.4%
Anu Solomon punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:3283% → 83%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
83.4%
Marcus Mariota run for 3 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
83.4%
Byron Marshall run for 5 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+7
83.2%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 7 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+33
83.4%
Charles Nelson run for 33 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
83.9%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Keanon LoweSimilar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
83.9%
Charles Nelson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+6
83.6%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q1 2:33
4TH & 3
OPP 25
0
83.0%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Darren CarringtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1818% → 17%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
82.5%
Anu Solomon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 24Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
82.5%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+1
82.7%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 25Similar
Q1 1:21
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.9%
Riggleman, Drew punt 38 yards to the OREGON37, Hill, Troy return 1 yards to the OREGON38, PENALTY OREGON running into kicker 5 yards to the ARIZONA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+26
82.7%
Drew Riggleman punt for 52 yds , Johnathan Loyd returns for 26 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:1383% → 82%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
83.4%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 45Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 9
OWN 45
-5
83.3%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 40Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 14
OWN 40
-1
82.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 39
0
82.5%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Darren CarringtonSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 15
OWN 39
0
81.9%
Ian Wheeler punt for 44 yds, fair catch by DaVonte' Neal at the Ariz 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2818% → 18%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
81.9%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 19Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+6
81.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 6 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+1
81.8%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 26Similar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+19
82.1%
Drew Riggleman punt for 42 yds , Johnathan Loyd returns for 19 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8MISSED FG
13 plays · 39 yds · 3:0083% → 83%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
83.4%
Royce Freeman run for 9 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+3
83.4%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
83.4%
Mariota, Marcus pass incomplete to Marshall, Byron (McCall Jr., Jarvis), PENALTY ARIZONA roughing passer (Gilbert, Reggie) 15 yards to the ARIZONA22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
83.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Charles Nelson for 2 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+2
83.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Charles Nelson for 2 yds to the Ariz 18Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+10
83.0%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 10 yds to the Ariz 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
83.4%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Ariz 6Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
83.3%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Ariz 1Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
82.9%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Ariz 1Similar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 0
OPP 1
-4
83.2%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Doug Brenner) to the Ariz 5Similar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 0
OPP 5
-5
83.2%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Arik Armstead) to the Ariz 10Similar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 0
OPP 10
+27
83.1%
Aidan Schneider 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:3318% → 17%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
82.5%
Nick Wilson run for no gain to the Ariz 20Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
82.3%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-12
82.7%
Anu Solomon sacked by DeForest Buckner for a loss of 12 yards to the Ariz 10Similar
Q2 8:37
4TH & 20
OWN 10
+10
83.3%
Drew Riggleman punt for 39 yds , Johnathan Loyd returns for 10 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 1:0384% → 90%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
83.8%
Royce Freeman run for 9 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+9
84.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 9 yds to the Ariz 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
84.4%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
84.4%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q2 7:33
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+14
83.9%
Mariota, Marcus pass incomplete to Nelson, Charles, PENALTY ARIZONA pass interference (Parks, William) 14 yards to the ARIZONA7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
89.2%
Marcus Mariota 7 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
89.6%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5212% → 12%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.6%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
87.7%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+6
88.0%
Drew Riggleman punt for 40 yds , Johnathan Loyd returns for 6 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -14 yds · 1:2389% → 88%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
89.2%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Jake Fisher) to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+3
88.8%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 12
OWN 37
0
88.9%
Marcus Mariota pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 12
OWN 37
-10
88.7%
Mariota, Marcus pass complete to Carrington, Darren for 19 yards to the ARIZONA44, PENALTY OREGON holding (Crosby, Tyrell) 10 yards to the OREGON27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 22
OWN 27
-2
88.5%
Marcus Mariota run for 3 yds to the Oregn 30 OREGON Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Marcus Mariota) to the Oregn 25Similar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 24
OWN 25
0
88.2%
Ian Wheeler punt for 35 yds, downed at the Ariz 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 0:5912% → 12%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
87.6%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 41Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-6
87.7%
Anu Solomon sacked by Tony Washington for a loss of 6 yards to the Ariz 35Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 15
OWN 35
-10
88.3%
Anu Solomon sacked by Torrodney Prevot for a loss of 10 yards to the Ariz 25 ARIZONA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Anu Solomon) to the Ariz 25Similar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 25
OWN 25
0
88.4%
Drew Riggleman punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Johnathan Loyd at the Oregn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:0789% → 96%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
89.1%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-10
89.1%
Nelson, Charles rush for loss of 1 yard to the OREGON20, PENALTY OREGON holding (Crosby, Tyrell) 10 yards to the OREGON11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 20
OWN 11
+5
89.1%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 5 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 15
OWN 16
+73
89.0%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Charles Nelson for 73 yds to the Ariz 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
90.1%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 16Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+3
90.5%
Byron Marshall run for 3 yds to the Ariz 13Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+9
90.5%
Keanon Lowe run for 9 yds to the Ariz 4Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
96.1%
Marcus Mariota 4 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:235% → 5%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
94.6%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
94.7%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+7
94.8%
Nick Wilson run for 7 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
94.9%
Drew Riggleman punt for 49 yds, downed at the Oregn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16END OF HALF
8 plays · 63 yds · 1:0096% → 96%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
95.8%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+23
95.9%
Royce Freeman run for 23 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
96.2%
Royce Freeman run for 12 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
96.1%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 15 yds to the Ariz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
96.2%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+13
96.2%
Kenny Bassett run for 13 yds to the Ariz 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+31
96.3%
Aidan Schneider 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:085% → 5%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
95.0%
Nick Wilson run for no gain to the Ariz 28Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
95.2%
Jesse Scroggins pass complete to Samajie Grant for 4 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+6
95.1%
Jesse Scroggins run for 6 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
95.1%
Nick Wilson run for 8 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
95.1%
Jesse Scroggins pass incomplete to DaVonte' NealSimilar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
95.2%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 47Similar
Q3 12:37
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
95.4%
Nick Wilson run for no gain to the Ariz 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:4397% → 99%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
96.5%
Marcus Mariota run for 6 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+16
96.5%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Devon Allen for 16 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
96.7%
Byron Marshall run for 6 yds to the Ariz 19Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+9
96.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 9 yds Byron Marshall fumbled, recovered by OregnSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
96.8%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Ariz 4Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.4%
Devon Allen 4 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 0:411% → 4%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
99.3%
Jesse Scroggins run for 6 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-5
99.3%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (Mickey Baucus) to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+69
96.3%
Cayleb Jones 69 Yd pass from Jesse Scroggins (Casey Skowron Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:1697% → 100%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
96.9%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+6
96.9%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+46
96.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 46 yds to the Ariz 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.6%
Darren Carrington 11 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:561% → 1%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
99.5%
Jesse Scroggins run for 7 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+1
99.4%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 30Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+6
99.5%
Jesse Scroggins pass complete to Austin Hill for 6 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.5%
Jesse Scroggins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
99.5%
Jesse Scroggins pass intercepted for a 1ST down Erick Dargan return for 24 yds to the OREGON 40 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Personal Foul (Steven Gurrola) to the Ariz 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22TD
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:06100% → 100%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
99.7%
Charles Nelson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 19Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+14
99.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Royce Freeman for 14 yds to the Ariz 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.7%
Marcus Mariota run for no gain to the Ariz 5Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 0
OPP 5
+3
99.6%
Mariota, Marcus pass incomplete to Carrington, Darren, PENALTY ARIZONA pass interference 3 yards to the ARIZONA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.6%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Ariz 1Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
Marcus Mariota 1 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:170% → 0%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.7%
Jesse Scroggins pass incomplete to Austin HillSimilar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
99.7%
Jesse Scroggins pass incomplete to Trey GriffeySimilar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
99.7%
Jesse Scroggins pass incomplete to David RichardsSimilar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
99.7%
Drew Riggleman punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:56100% → 100%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
99.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Charles Nelson for 16 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Charles Nelson for 4 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+10
99.7%
Byron Marshall run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
50
-2
99.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Charles Nelson for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 48Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+3
99.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 3 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+1
99.8%
Byron Marshall run for 1 yd to the Ariz 48Similar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
99.7%
Ian Wheeler punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:300% → 0%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
99.8%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
99.8%
Jerrard Randall run for 21 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.8%
Jerrard Randall run for 4 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
99.8%
Jerrard Randall run for 3 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-3
99.8%
Jerrard Randall run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 45Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 6
OPP 45
+4
99.8%
Drew Riggleman punt for 35 yds , Erick Dargan returns for 4 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:50100% → 100%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
99.8%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+4
99.8%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+2
99.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 2 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 2
OWN 22
0
99.8%
Ian Wheeler punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 27DOWNS
11 plays · 28 yds · 2:300% → 0%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Jerrard Randall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to Austin HillSimilar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+13
99.9%
Jerrard Randall run for 13 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
99.9%
Jerrard Randall run for 2 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+19
99.9%
Jerrard Randall run for 19 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
99.9%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Jerrard Randall pass incomplete to Cayleb JonesSimilar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 8
OPP 28
-3
99.9%
Jerrard Randall run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 11
OPP 31
-5
99.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (Mickey Baucus) to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 16
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Jerrard Randall run for no gain to the Oregn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 28TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 5:48100% → 100%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.9%
Kenny Bassett run for 2 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
99.9%
Kenny Bassett run for 3 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+10
99.9%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Johnathan Loyd for 10 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
99.9%
Jeff Lockie pass complete to Johnathan Loyd for 3 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
99.9%
Kani Benoit run for 6 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
99.9%
Kani Benoit run for 2 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
99.9%
Kani Benoit run for 4 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+12
100.0%
Kani Benoit run for 12 yds to the Ariz 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
100.0%
Kenny Bassett run for 3 yds to the Ariz 19Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+19
100.0%
Kenny Bassett 19 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
100.0%
Jesse Scroggins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+10
100.0%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 10 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
100.0%
Terris Jones-Grigsby run for 5 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
100.0%
Jesse Scroggins pass incomplete to Tyrell JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-7
100.0%
Jesse Scroggins sacked by Isaac Ava for a loss of 7 yards to the Ariz 49Similar
Q4 2:27
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
100.0%
Drew Riggleman punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
100.0%
Lane Roseberry run for no gain to the Oregn 8Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+1
100.0%
Lane Roseberry run for 1 yd to the Oregn 9Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+5
100.0%
Ayele Forde run for 5 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 4
OWN 14
-5
100.0%
OREGON Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 9Similar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 9
OWN 9
0
100.0%
Ian Wheeler punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 31END OF GAME
1 play · 25 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
100.0%
Jerrard Randall 25 Yd Run Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:34
Marcus Mariota 4 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)
+5.5
TD · Q2 7:27
Marcus Mariota 7 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)
+5.3
TD · Q3 9:34
Cayleb Jones 69 Yd pass from Jesse Scroggins (Casey Skowron Kick)
-3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com