Oregon

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2995th
  Defense+0.0768th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense49.4%95th
  Defense38.4%81st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2021st
  Defense+1.2557th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1880th
  Defense+0.1235th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.4196th
  Defense+0.0578th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense53.8%95th
  Defense45.2%67th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense38.1%95th
  Defense26.3%87th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.4092nd
  Defense3.1135th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense14.2%86th
  Defense14.0%13th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense10.6%98th
  Defense19.3%83rd

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Oregon allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   IDHO
2. W
   BOIS
3. W
   ORST
4. W
   UCLA
5. W
   MSU
6. W
   OSU
7. W
   PUR
8. W
   ILL
9. W
   MICH
10. W
    MD
11. W
    WIS
12. W
    WASH
13. W
    PSU
14. L
    OSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Oregon.

Players, 2024

1. Dillon GabrielQB352 plays · +0.352 pts/play · 10th of 232 QBs
   2.32WAR1.69 to 3.00
2. Jordan JamesRB197 plays · +0.168 pts/play · 8th of 373 RBs
   0.62WAR0.46 to 0.74
3. Noah WhittingtonRB79 plays · +0.102 pts/play · 193rd of 373 RBs
   0.15WAR0.11 to 0.21
4. Terrance FergusonTE40 plays · +0.195 pts/play · 15th of 221 TEs
   0.15WAR0.03 to 0.27
5. Traeshon HoldenWR35 plays · +0.114 pts/play · 189th of 452 WRs
   0.07WAR−0.04 to 0.17
6. Ross JamesP32 plays · +0.123 pts/play · 44th of 106 punters
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.12
7. Atticus SappingtonPK11 plays · +0.340 pts/play · 73rd of 114 kickers
   0.07WAR0.05 to 0.09
8. Tez JohnsonWR56 plays · +0.065 pts/play · 199th of 452 WRs
   0.07WAR−0.06 to 0.19

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Oregon's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  9179176th of 131Roster talent: 917, 6th of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  2762767th of 131Recruiting: 276, 7th of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  36%36%86th of 130Returning production: 36%, 86th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +26.0+26.03rd of 131SP+ rating: +26.0, 3rd of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Oregon's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.02 of the 0.05 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs IDHOQ4 9:45 4th & 7 at IDHO 17, up 3Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.6 pts
2. vs MDQ4 5:47 4th & 2 at MD 2, up 11Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
3. at PURQ3 6:34 4th & 2 at PUR 33, up 21Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
4. vs MDQ3 9:28 4th & 3 at ORE 22, up 11Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.4 pts
5. vs PSUQ3 1:40 4th & 5 at PSU 45, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
6. vs BOISQ2 1:52 4th & 7 at BOIS 46, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
7. at WISQ2 2:55 4th & 7 at ORE 48, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
8. vs ILLQ1 3:34 4th & 1 at ORE 23, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

19th of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Oregon's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   IDHO
2. W

   BOIS
3. W

   ORST
4. W

   UCLA
5. W

   MSU
6. W

   OSU
7. W

   PUR
8. W

   ILL
9. W

   MICH
10. W

    MD
11. W

    WIS
12. W

    WASH
13. W

    PSU
14. L

    OSU

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Oregon's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.77
• Clock+0.02
• Timeouts−0.02
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.52

Game by game

• IDHOW 24-14 vs IDHO79% → 97%Before kickoff +29 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +23, Timeouts +2
• BOISW 37-34 vs BOIS90% → 88%Before kickoff +40 · On the field −2: Scoreboard +18, Timeouts −4
• ORSTW 49-14 at ORST90% → 100%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +15
• UCLAW 34-13 at UCLA94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +12
• MSUW 31-10 vs MSU93% → 100%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +12, Timeouts −1
• OSUW 32-31 vs OSU40% → 75%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +14, Timeouts −1
• PURW 35-0 at PUR96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +7
• ILLW 38-9 vs ILL93% → 100%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +10
• MICHW 38-17 at MICH84% → 99%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +23, Clock +1
• MDW 39-18 vs MD94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +10
• WISW 16-13 at WIS81% → 94%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +13: Scoreboard +30, Clock +2
• WASHW 49-21 vs WASH90% → 100%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +13
• PSUW 45-37 vs PSU54% → 97%Before kickoff +4 · On the field +43: Scoreboard +38, Timeouts +2
• OSUL 21-41 vs OSU44% → 1%Before kickoff −6 · On the field −43: Scoreboard −48, Clock −1

Points of win probability, from Oregon's side.

Closest call

ORE 44-41 WSU (2022) - Oregon dropped to a 0.8% win probability before pulling it out.