Try the model
MD

Maryland 18 at Oregon 39

ORE
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · Autzen Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · DeJuan Williams run for 3 yds to the MD 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:10: Brandon Johnson 62 Yd Fumble Return (Atticus Sappington Kick) — ORE win probability +2.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:17: Roman Hemby run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +6.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 0:20: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 9 yds for a TD (Andrew Boyle KICK) — ORE win probability +5.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:48: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gernorris Wilson for 3 yds for a TD (J. Conerly Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion) — ORE win probability +5.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:27: Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 3 yds for a TD (B. Edwards Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion) — MD win probability +8.6 pts (now 12%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MD made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 10:17MD 4th & 8 at ORE 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:21ORE 4th & 7 at ORE 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:57MD 4th & 3 at MD 47, up 3
    Close callPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:14ORE 4th & 1 at MD 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.3%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:23MD 4th & 14 at ORE 47, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:42ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 16, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:17MD 4th & 7 at ORE 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:17ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:00MD 4th & 9 at MD 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:28ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 22, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.3%−0.4
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    90.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:10MD 4th & 9 at ORE 25, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:10MD 4th & 9 at ORE 25, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−2.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:34ORE 4th & 4 at MD 41, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    97.2%−0.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    97.3%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:48MD 4th & 3 at ORE 9, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    -0.5%−3.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:01ORE 4th & 20 at MD 44, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−1.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:47ORE 4th & 2 at MD 2, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.8%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−3.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:06MD 4th & 10 at MD 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:09ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 43, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 5MD made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 2:21ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:10ORE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:17MD Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:20ORE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:48ORE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    95.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:27MD Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.8%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:45ORE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1FG
16 plays · 56 yds · 4:356% → 7%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.9%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the MD 26Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
93.8%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the MD 32Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
93.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Tai FeltonSimilar
Q1 13:48
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-5
93.7%
PENALTY MAR False Start (Fleming,Rex) 5 yards from MAR32 to MAR27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+15
93.6%
(13:41) McFerson,Bryce punt 19 yards to the MAR46 PENALTY ORE Roughing The Kicker (Austin,Daylen) 15 yards from MAR27 to MAR42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
93.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 10 yds to the ORE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
93.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Preston Howard for 13 yds to the ORE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
93.2%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the ORE 32Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
93.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Tai FeltonSimilar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+11
93.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 11 yds to the ORE 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
92.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Roman HembySimilar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+7
92.8%
Roman Hemby run for 7 yds to the ORE 14Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 3
OPP 14
0
92.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Dylan WadeSimilar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 3
OPP 14
-5
92.7%
PENALTY MAR False Start (Fontus,Dillan) 5 yards from ORE14 to ORE19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+37
92.7%
Jack Howes 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5193% → 92%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jordan JamesSimilar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.6%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the ORE 28Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
92.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Terrance FergusonSimilar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
92.3%
Ross James punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MD 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:148% → 8%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
92.3%
Nolan Ray run for 3 yds to the MD 43Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
92.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 4 yds to the MD 47Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
91.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Tai FeltonSimilar
Q1 7:57
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
92.0%
Bryce McFerson punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4TD
16 plays · 92 yds · 5:3092% → 91%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
91.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 6 yds to the ORE 14Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+3
91.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 3 yds to the ORE 17Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+4
91.4%
Jordan James run for 4 yds to the ORE 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
91.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 3 yds to the ORE 24Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+15
91.0%
Maryland Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the ORE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
91.0%
Dillon Gabriel run for 3 yds to the ORE 42Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
91.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Terrance FergusonSimilar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+13
90.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 13 yds to the MD 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
91.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Noah WhittingtonSimilar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
91.0%
PENALTY ORE False Start (Iuli,Dave) 5 yards from MAR45 to MAR50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 15
50
+4
90.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for 4 yds to the MD 46Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+10
90.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 10 yds to the MD 36Similar
Q1 3:14
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+7
90.4%
Jordan James run for 7 yds to the MD 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+26
90.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jordan James for 26 yds to the MD 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.4%
Jordan James run for 3 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
Q1 2:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
91.4%
PENALTY ORE False Start (Strother,Nishad) 5 yards from MAR03 to MAR08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5FUMBLE RETURN TD
9 plays · 37 yds · 4:049% → 9%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.9%
Nolan Ray run for no gain to the MD 25Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 5 yds to the MD 30Similar
Q1 0:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
90.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 7 yds to the MD 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
90.1%
Nolan Ray run for 4 yds to the MD 41Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+16
89.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 16 yds to the ORE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
89.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 2 yds to the ORE 41Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+2
89.2%
Nolan Ray run for 2 yds to the ORE 39Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+62
91.5%
Brandon Johnson 62 Yd Fumble Return (Atticus Sappington Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 3:378% → 8%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
91.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Shaleak KnottsSimilar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
91.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 1 yd to the MD 36Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+21
91.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 21 yds to the ORE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
91.1%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the ORE 43Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
91.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for no gain to the ORE 43Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+1
91.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the ORE 42Similar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 9
OPP 42
-5
91.6%
PENALTY MAR Illegal Snap (Gough,Ethan) 5 yards from ORE42 to ORE47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:23
4TH & 14
OPP 47
+1
91.8%
Bryce McFerson punt for 36 yds , Gary Bryant Jr. returns for 1 yd to the ORE 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3592% → 91%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
91.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Justius LoweSimilar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+9
91.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Justius Lowe for 9 yds to the ORE 21Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+5
91.7%
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the ORE 16Similar
Q2 7:42
4TH & 6
OWN 16
0
91.2%
Ross James punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 4:049% → 16%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+27
91.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 27 yds to the ORE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
90.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 3 yds to the ORE 40Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
90.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Octavian Smith Jr.Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
90.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Tai FeltonSimilar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
91.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Octavian Smith Jr.Similar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 7
OPP 40
+9
91.2%
(06:20) No Huddle-Shotgun Edwards Jr.,Billy pass incomplete short middle to Smith Jr.,Octavian thrown to ORE33, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ORE Pass Interference (Johnson,Tysheem) 9 yards from ORE40 to ORE31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
90.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 7 yds to the ORE 24Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+12
89.9%
(05:33) No Huddle-Shotgun Edwards Jr.,Billy sacked for loss of 13 yards to the ORE37 (Uiagalelei,Matayo) PENALTY ORE Face Mask (Harmon,Derrick) 12 yards from ORE24 to ORE12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
89.8%
Nolan Ray run for 5 yds to the ORE 7Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+1
90.3%
Nolan Ray run for 1 yd to the ORE 6Similar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+4
90.6%
(03:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Edwards Jr.,Billy pass incomplete short right to Felton,Tai thrown to ORE00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ORE Pass Interference (Johnson,Tysheem) 4 yards from ORE06 to ORE02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
90.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the ORE 1Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.1%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 2:4887% → 92%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jordan James for 1 yd to the ORE 26Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
86.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 8 yds to the ORE 34Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
86.4%
Jordan James run for 10 yds to the ORE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
87.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 11 yds to the MD 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
87.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Justius Lowe for 12 yds to the MD 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
87.7%
Noah Whittington run for 11 yds to the MD 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
87.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Justius Lowe for 4 yds to the MD 18Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 6
OPP 18
0
87.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Terrance FergusonSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+9
87.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 9 yds to the MD 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
87.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Terrance FergusonSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
87.4%
Noah Whittington run for no gain to the MD 9Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
91.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 9 yds for a TD (Andrew Boyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
90.9%
B. Edwards Jr. takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3492% → 91%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 5 yds to the ORE 30Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
91.7%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the ORE 32Similar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
91.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd to the ORE 31Similar
Q3 13:17
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
90.9%
Ross James punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tai Felton at the MD 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:139% → 9%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
90.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Kaden PratherSimilar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
91.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 4 yds to the MD 32Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+13
91.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 13 yds to the MD 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
90.2%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the MD 46Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
90.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Dylan WadeSimilar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
90.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Tai FeltonSimilar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
91.1%
Bryce McFerson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jeffrey Bassa at the ORE 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:0491% → 98%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
91.3%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the ORE 18Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+4
91.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 4 yds to the ORE 22Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
91.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Evan StewartSimilar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 3
OWN 22
+36
90.7%
Jordan Burch run for 36 yds to the MD 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
92.2%
(08:47) No Huddle Gabriel,Dillon pass incomplete deep right to Stewart,Evan thrown to MAR00 PENALTY MAR Pass Interference (Fisher,Perry) 15 yards from MAR42 to MAR27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
92.2%
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the MD 23Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+20
92.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 20 yds to the MD 3 for a 1ST down Maryland Penalty, Defensive Holding (Dylan Wade) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
92.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Terrance FergusonSimilar
Q3 7:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gernorris Wilson for 3 yds for a TD (J. Conerly Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14DOWNS
17 plays · 50 yds · 4:324% → 4%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.9%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the MD 28Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
95.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for no gain to the MD 28Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
96.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 9 yds to the MD 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
95.9%
(06:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Edwards Jr.,Billy pass incomplete deep left to Felton,Tai thrown to ORE30 QB hurried by Harmon,Derrick PENALTY ORE Pass Interference (Muhammad,Jabbar) 15 yards from MAR37 to ORE48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
95.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Octavian Smith Jr.Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
95.9%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the ORE 45Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+7
95.9%
Roman Hemby run for 7 yds to the ORE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
96.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Tai FeltonSimilar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+12
96.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 12 yds to the ORE 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
95.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 6 yds to the ORE 20Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 4
OPP 20
0
95.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Kaden PratherSimilar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 4
OPP 20
-10
95.8%
(03:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Edwards Jr.,Billy pass complete short middle to Wade,Dylan caught at ORE15, for 5 yards to the ORE15 (Bassa,Jeffrey) PENALTY MAR Holding (Bunyun,Isaac) 10 yards from ORE20 to ORE30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 14
OPP 30
0
96.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Kaden PratherSimilar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 14
OPP 30
+5
96.3%
PENALTY ORE Offside (Manning,Dontae) 5 yards from ORE30 to ORE25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 9
OPP 25
0
96.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Tai FeltonSimilar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 9
OPP 25
0
96.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Tai FeltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 34 yds · 2:2598% → 98%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
97.6%
Noah Whittington run for 28 yds to the MD 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
97.8%
Noah Whittington run for no gain to the MD 47Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-1
97.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 48Similar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+7
97.9%
Dillon Gabriel run for 7 yds to the MD 41Similar
Q3 0:34
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
97.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Justius LoweSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:533% → 12%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
96.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Preston Howard for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
50
+34
96.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 34 yds to the ORE 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
96.1%
Nolan Ray run for 2 yds to the ORE 14Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+1
96.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the ORE 13Similar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+4
96.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 4 yds to the ORE 9Similar
Q4 12:48
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+4
97.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 4 yds to the ORE 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
96.8%
Maryland Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Billy Edwards Jr.) to the ORE 8Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
96.8%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the ORE 6Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
97.1%
Oregon Penalty, Defensive Holding (Brandon Johnson) to the ORE 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 3 yds for a TD (B. Edwards Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
Q4 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
88.4%
PENALTY ORE Roughing The Passer (Johnson,Tysheem) 2 yards from ORE03 to ORE01. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:1992% → 93%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.3%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the ORE 28Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
93.3%
Noah Whittington run for 19 yds to the ORE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
94.2%
Dillon Gabriel run for 19 yds to the MD 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
94.3%
Jayden Limar run for 4 yds to the MD 30Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
94.2%
Jayden Limar run for 1 yd to the MD 29Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
94.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Terrance FergusonSimilar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 5
OPP 29
-15
93.3%
PENALTY ORE UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Strother,Nishad) 15 yards from MAR29 to MAR44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 20
OPP 44
0
92.8%
Luke Dunne punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:117% → 6%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
93.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Preston HowardSimilar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
93.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Kaden PratherSimilar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
93.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Octavian Smith Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19FG
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4994% → 97%
Q4 7:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
94.3%
Noah Whittington run for no gain to the MD 4Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
94.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 2 yds to the MD 2Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
94.6%
PENALTY ORE False Start (Stewart,Evan) 5 yards from MAR02 to MAR07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
95.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Justius Lowe for 5 yds to the MD 2Similar
Q4 5:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
97.0%
Atticus Sappington 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:495% → 5%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Kaden PratherSimilar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 6 yds to the MD 31Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
94.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:5998% → 100%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
97.5%
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the MD 26Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+7
98.0%
Noah Whittington run for 7 yds to the MD 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
98.0%
Noah Whittington run for 1 yd to the MD 18Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+1
98.3%
Jayden Limar run for 1 yd to the MD 17Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+17
99.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 17 yds for a TD (Andrew Boyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:390% → 0%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.6%
PENALTY MAR False Start (Kaltenberger,Josh) 5 yards from MAR25 to MAR20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
99.6%
MJ Morris run for 4 yds to the MD 24Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
99.6%
Nolan Ray run for 1 yd to the MD 25Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Tai FeltonSimilar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Bryce McFerson punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Gary Bryant Jr. at the ORE 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
99.6%
PENALTY MAR UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Wyatt,Kellan) 15 yards from ORE24 to ORE39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.6%
Jayden Limar run for 5 yds to the ORE 34Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+6
99.6%
Jayden Limar run for 6 yds to the ORE 40Similar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+3
99.6%
Jayden Limar run for 3 yds to the ORE 43Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Ross James punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MD 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
99.6%
DeJuan Williams run for 3 yds to the MD 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:27
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 3 yds for a TD (B. Edwards Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion)
-8.6
TD · Q2 3:17
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
-6.1
TD · Q3 7:48
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gernorris Wilson for 3 yds for a TD (J. Conerly Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion)
+5.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com