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MSU

Michigan State 10 at Oregon 31

ORE
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2024 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:01 · Jordan James run for 3 yds to the MSU 6 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Pregame prior+13.6Home team on offense+30.8Score differential+20.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.7Garbage-time factor+11.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+6.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:22: Dillon Gabriel run for 9 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK) — ORE win probability +1.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:22: PENALTY MSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Woods,Ed) 15 yards from ORE35 to ORE50. NO PLAY. — MSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 9%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:26: Jordan James run for 3 yds for a TD (Andrew Boyle KICK) — ORE win probability +2.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:05: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 9 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK) — ORE win probability +4.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:27: Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK) — MSU win probability +1.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 14:06ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:55MSU 4th & 2 at ORE 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:52MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:20MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:11MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:53MSU 4th & 13 at MSU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:35MSU 4th & 17 at MSU 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:47ORE 4th & 5 at MSU 32, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.4%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:25MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 18, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:01ORE 4th & 1 at MSU 9, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:18ORE 4th & 2 at MSU 2, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:37ORE 4th & 12 at ORE 23, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:14MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 40, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:25MSU 4th & 14 at ORE 24, down 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:22ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:26ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:05ORE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:18ORE Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:27MSU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4793% → 93%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.1%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the ORE 27Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
92.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:06
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
92.9%
Ross James punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2FUMBLE
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:587% → 8%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
92.9%
Nate Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 33Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
92.8%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+13
92.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jaron Glover for 13 yds to the MSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
92.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nate Carter for 7 yds to the ORE 47Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
92.3%
Nate Carter run for no gain to the ORE 47Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+1
92.2%
Nate Carter run for 1 yd to the ORE 46Similar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+37
92.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 37 yds to the ORE 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.6%
Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds Aidan Chiles fumbled, recovered by ORE Jordan BurchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3INT
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:4592% → 91%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+41
91.8%
Jordan James run for 41 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
92.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-1
91.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 40Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+11
91.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 11 yds to the MSU 29 for a 1ST down Michigan State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Charles Brantley) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
91.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+18
91.7%
Jordan James run for 18 yds to the MSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
91.5%
Michigan State Penalty, Face Mask (4 yards) (Ben Roberts) to the MSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
91.4%
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the MSU 4Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
91.3%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the MSU 1Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
91.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:119% → 10%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-11
90.6%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Derrick Harmon for a loss of 11 yards to the MSU 9Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 21
OWN 9
+5
90.5%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 5 yds to the MSU 14Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+6
90.3%
Aidan Chiles run for 6 yds to the MSU 20Similar
Q1 3:52
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
90.2%
Ryan Eckley punt for 55 yds , Tez Johnson returns for no gain to the ORE 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2590% → 91%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 2 yds to the ORE 27Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
89.7%
Jordan James run for 13 yds to the ORE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+37
89.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 37 yds to the MSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
90.1%
Noah Whittington run for 7 yds to the MSU 16Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+2
89.8%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the MSU 14Similar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+5
89.4%
Jordan James run for 5 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
91.2%
Dillon Gabriel run for 9 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
90.7%
PENALTY MSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Woods,Ed) 15 yards from ORE35 to ORE50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:0010% → 10%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
90.5%
PENALTY ORE UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Johnson,Tysheem) 15 yards from MSU21 to MSU36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
90.2%
Nate Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 38Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
90.1%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for no gain to the MSU 38Similar
Q2 14:28
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
90.1%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
90.5%
Ryan Eckley punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ORE 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7INT
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:4790% → 91%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+62
90.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 62 yds to the MSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
90.9%
Jordan James run for 9 yds to the MSU 13Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+4
90.8%
Jordan James run for 4 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
90.7%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the MSU 6Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
90.6%
(11:49) No Huddle-Shotgun Gabriel,Dillon rush left for 1 yard gain to the MSU05 (Denson Jr.,Justin; Spencer,Malik) PENALTY ORE Illegal Formation (Cornelius,Ajani) 5 yards from MSU06 to MSU11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
90.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted Charles Brantley return for no gain to the MSU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:5110% → 10%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+12
89.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 12 yds to the MSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
89.5%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the MSU 16Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+5
89.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 5 yds to the MSU 21Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
89.6%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
89.8%
Ryan Eckley punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:3690% → 92%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
90.1%
Jordan James run for 17 yds to the MSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
90.1%
Jordan James run for 15 yds to the MSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
90.4%
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the MSU 17Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 4
OPP 17
0
90.3%
Noah Whittington run for no gain to the MSU 17Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+12
89.9%
Dillon Gabriel run for 12 yds to the MSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
90.1%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the MSU 3Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.1%
Jordan James run for 3 yds for a TD (Andrew Boyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:078% → 8%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
91.6%
Aidan Chiles run for 10 yds to the MSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
91.6%
Nate Carter run for 10 yds to the MSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
91.3%
Aidan Chiles run for no gain to the MSU 32Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-3
91.5%
Aidan Chiles sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 29Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 13
OWN 29
0
91.9%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Jordan Burch for 0 yards to the MSU 29Similar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
92.0%
Ryan Eckley punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the ORE 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
16 plays · 73 yds · 1:4892% → 97%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
92.0%
PENALTY ORE False Start (Laloulu,Iapani) 5 yards from ORE27 to ORE22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+3
91.9%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the ORE 25Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+17
91.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 17 yds to the ORE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
92.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jordan James for 4 yds to the ORE 46Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+9
92.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 9 yds to the MSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
92.5%
Jordan James run for 15 yds to the MSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
93.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 11 yds to the MSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
93.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Noah Whittington for 4 yds to the MSU 15Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
93.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+6
92.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 6 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
92.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
92.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
97.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 9 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.4%
A. Chiles takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 4:163% → 3%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 6 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
96.6%
Aidan Chiles run for 10 yds to the MSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
96.6%
Aidan Chiles run for 6 yds to the MSU 47Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+3
96.6%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 1
50
+2
96.6%
Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds to the ORE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
96.8%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Jordan Burch for a loss of 7 yards to the MSU 45Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 17
OWN 45
0
97.1%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 17
OWN 45
0
97.1%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 17
OWN 45
0
97.1%
Ryan Eckley punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the ORE 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:3897% → 98%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
97.4%
Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd to the ORE 21Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+10
97.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 10 yds to the ORE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
97.6%
Jordan James run for 6 yds to the ORE 37Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+6
98.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 6 yds to the ORE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
98.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 20 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
98.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
98.1%
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the MSU 32Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
98.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:47
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+50
98.1%
Andrew Boyle 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:472% → 2%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
97.8%
Nick Marsh run for 6 yds to the MSU 9 Nick Marsh fumbled, recovered by MSU Nick MarshSimilar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 16
OWN 9
+14
97.9%
Aidan Chiles run for 14 yds to the MSU 23Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 2
OWN 23
-5
97.9%
PENALTY MSU Delay Of Game (Chiles,Aidan) 5 yards from MSU23 to MSU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
98.1%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 7
OWN 18
+6
98.2%
Ryan Eckley punt for 52 yds , Tez Johnson returns for 6 yds to the ORE 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16TD
19 plays · 64 yds · 7:5799% → 100%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
98.9%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the ORE 38Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+13
99.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 13 yds to the MSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.0%
Jordan James run for 4 yds to the MSU 45Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
99.1%
(02:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Gabriel,Dillon pass incomplete deep middle to Johnson,Tez thrown to MSU20 PENALTY ORE Ineligible Downfield on Pass offsetting MSU Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:03
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
99.2%
(01:06) No Huddle-Shotgun Gabriel,Dillon sacked for loss of 0 yards to the MSU45 (Bogle,Khris) PENALTY MSU Offside offsetting ORE Illegal Shift offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+9
99.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 9 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
99.2%
Noah Whittington run for 1 yd to the MSU 35Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+17
99.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 17 yds to the MSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.2%
Jordan James run for no gain to the MSU 18Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
99.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+9
99.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 9 yds to the MSU 9Similar
Q4 14:01
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+3
99.3%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the MSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
99.3%
(13:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Gabriel,Dillon pass incomplete short right to Ferguson,Terrance thrown to MSU00 PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Spencer,Malik) 4 yards from MSU06 to MSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.4%
Jordan James run for no gain to the MSU 2Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.5%
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the MSU 1Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.5%
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the MSU 2Similar
Q4 11:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 2 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:460% → 1%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 10 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+35
99.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 35 yds to the ORE 30 for a 1ST down Oregon Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
99.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 10 yds to the ORE 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
99.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 12 yds to the ORE 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
99.9%
Oregon Penalty, Chop Block (Teitum Tuioti) to the ORE 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.7%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 1:42100% → 100%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.6%
Jayden Limar run for 5 yds to the ORE 20Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-10
99.6%
PENALTY ORE UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Pellum,Ryan) 10 yards from ORE20 to ORE10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 25
OWN 10
+7
99.6%
Dante Moore pass complete to Jurrion Dickey for 7 yds to the ORE 17Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+6
99.6%
Dante Moore run for 6 yds to the ORE 23Similar
Q4 6:37
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
99.6%
Luke Dunne punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 6:001% → 1%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
99.2%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Nick Marsh for 7 yds to the MSU 38Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+2
99.3%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the MSU 40Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
99.3%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for no gain to the MSU 40Similar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+5
99.3%
Tommy Schuster run for 5 yds to the MSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
99.3%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Jack Velling for 20 yds to the ORE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.3%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Nate Carter for 3 yds to the ORE 32Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+12
99.2%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 12 yds to the ORE 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.2%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Jack Velling for no gain to the ORE 20Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-11
99.2%
Tommy Schuster sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the ORE 31Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 21
OPP 31
+7
99.3%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Nick Marsh for 7 yds to the ORE 24Similar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 14
OPP 24
+42
99.4%
Jonathan Kim 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:251% → 0%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.4%
Oregon Penalty, Roughing The Kicker (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.8%
D. Moore takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:05
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 9 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
+4
TD · Q2 5:26
Jordan James run for 3 yds for a TD (Andrew Boyle KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q1 0:22
Dillon Gabriel run for 9 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
+1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com