ARDLINETry the model
PSU

Penn State 37 at Oregon 45

ORE
2024 · Week 15 · Dec 8, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey play
Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTD
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 14:56
Gabriel Nwosu kickoff for 64 yds , Noah Whittington return for 15 yds to the ORE 16
0.0
Q1 14:48
Jordan James run for 9 yds to the ORE 25
+2.1
Q1 14:32
Jordan James run for no gain to the ORE 25
+0.2
Q1 13:56
Jordan James run for 7 yds to the ORE 32 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 13:17
Jordan James run for 4 yds to the ORE 36
0.0
Q1 12:32
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 17 yds to the PSU 47 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q1 12:20
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jordan James for 3 yds to the PSU 44
+1.7
Q1 11:55
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the PSU 38 for a 1ST down Penn State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Coziah Izzard) to the PSU 23 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 11:26
Noah Whittington run for a loss of 5 yards to the PSU 28
+0.4
Q1 10:40
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for 28 yds for a TD Oregon Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PSU 8 (Atticus Sappington KICK)
+14.3
Q1 10:40
Oregon Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PSU 8
0.0
Q1 10:40
Atticus Sappington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-1.2
Q1 10:36
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 4 yds to the PSU 29
-4.0
Q1 9:48
Tyler Warren run for a loss of 4 yards to the PSU 30 Tyler Warren fumbled, recovered by PSU Nicholas Singleton Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the PSU 30
0.0
Q1 9:23
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 7 yds to the PSU 37 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q1 9:05
Nicholas Singleton run for 41 yds to the ORE 22 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 8:23
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Liam Clifford
-2.6
Q1 8:13
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 6 yds to the ORE 16
0.0
Q1 7:34
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Luke Reynolds
0.0
Q1 7:30
Ryan Barker 33 yd FG GOOD
-7.2
Q1 7:30
Gabriel Nwosu kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+2.0
Q1 7:23
Noah Whittington run for 26 yds to the PSU 49 for a 1ST down
+3.4
Q1 6:48
Jordan James run for 8 yds to the PSU 41
+0.6
Q1 6:19
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the PSU 40
+0.1
Q1 5:41
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Patrick Herbert
-0.2
Q1 5:35
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the PSU 39 for a 1ST down Penn State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the PSU 24 for a 1ST down
-0.7
Q1 5:09
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 6 yds to the PSU 18
+1.0
Q1 4:53
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the PSU 13 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 4:17
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 7 yds to the PSU 6
0.0
Q1 4:02
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the PSU 2 for a 1ST down
-0.8
Q1 3:21
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for 2 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
+15.7
Q1 3:21
Atticus Sappington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.8
Q1 3:15
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 13 yds to the PSU 38 for a 1ST down
-7.0
Q1 3:00
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Tyler Warren
-0.6
Q1 3:00
Penn State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PSU 33
0.0
Q1 2:54
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace III
+0.6
Q1 2:44
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 16 yds to the PSU 49 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 2:26
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line
-1.1
Q1 1:39
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 28 yds to the ORE 22 for a 1ST down
+6.1
Q1 1:24
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 22 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)
-19.4
Q1 1:24
Gabriel Nwosu kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+2.8
Q1 1:24
Penn State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the ORE 40 for a 1ST down
+4.2
Q1 1:19
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Noah Whittington
+0.6
Q1 1:10
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 24 yds to the PSU 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 0:00
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Amin Vanover and Dvon J-Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the PSU 38
+1.1
Q2 14:49
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 31 yds to the PSU 7 for a 1ST down
+2.6
Q2 14:29
Jordan James run for 4 yds to the PSU 3
0.0
Q2 13:46
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 4
0.0
Q2 13:04
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 4 yds for a TD (Andrew Boyle KICK)
+16.3
Q2 13:04
Atticus Sappington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.5
Q2 12:57
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 31
-7.0
Q2 12:57
Penn State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Olaivavega Ioane) to the PSU 16
0.0
Q2 12:29
Drew Allar pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 12:21
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 8 yds to the PSU 24
0.0
Q2 11:48
Riley Thompson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Gary Bryant Jr. at the ORE 31
-0.1
Q2 11:45
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jordan James
+7.2
Q2 11:39
Jordan James run for a loss of 3 yards to the ORE 28
0.0
Q2 10:59
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jordan James for 6 yds to the ORE 34
+1.4
Q2 10:20
Ross James punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Zion Tracy at the PSU 11
+0.6
Q2 10:18
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Nicholas Singleton
-6.7
Q2 10:08
Drew Allar pass intercepted Dontae Manning return for 24 yds to the PSU 1
0.0
Q2 10:05
Jordan James run for 1 yd for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
+18.3
Q2 10:05
Atticus Sappington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.3
Q2 9:59
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PSU 28
-2.3
Q2 9:21
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Khalil Dinkins
0.0
Q2 9:16
Allar, Drew pass incomplete to Warren, Tyler, PENALTY ORE pass interference (Lopa, Kingston) 4 yards to the PSU32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PSU.
0.0
Q2 9:09
Kaytron Allen run for 24 yds to the ORE 44 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 8:50
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 6 yds to the ORE 38
-1.4
Q2 8:07
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace III
+0.5
Q2 8:01
Nicholas Singleton run for 17 yds to the ORE 21 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 7:26
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORE 22
-0.9
Q2 6:49
Drew Allar pass complete to Omari Evans for 22 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)
-15.3
Q2 6:49
Gabriel Nwosu kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+2.2
Q2 6:46
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Noah Whittington
+7.4
Q2 6:39
Jordan James run for no gain to the ORE 25
0.0
Q2 6:01
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Traeshon Holden
+0.3
Q2 5:54
Ross James punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Zion Tracy at the PSU 36
-0.5
Q2 5:51
Nicholas Singleton run for 15 yds to the ORE 49 for a 1ST down
-4.7
Q2 5:15
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the ORE 48
-0.6
Q2 4:58
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Nicholas Singleton
+0.1
Q2 4:54
Drew Allar run for 8 yds to the ORE 40
0.0
Q2 4:17
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the ORE 37 for a 1ST down
-0.5
Q2 3:38
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 19 yds to the ORE 18 for a 1ST down
-0.4
Q2 2:59
Drew Allar pass incomplete
+3.1
Q2 2:51
Nicholas Singleton run for 8 yds to the ORE 10
0.0
Q2 2:00
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 3 yds to the ORE 7 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q2 1:53
Drew Allar run for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)
-24.5
Q2 1:53
Gabriel Nwosu kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+2.8
Q2 1:46
Jordan James run for 7 yds to the ORE 32
+5.5
Q2 1:24
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 25 yds to the PSU 43 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:18
Jordan James run for 9 yds to the PSU 34
+1.7
Q2 1:14
Jordan James run for 4 yds to the PSU 30 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:51
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Traeshon Holden
0.0
Q2 0:43
Dillon Gabriel run for 11 yds to the PSU 19 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:40
Timeout Penn State, clock 00:40
-0.6
Q2 0:30
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the PSU 18
0.0
Q2 0:14
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Traeshon Holden
-0.2
Q2 0:14
Timeout Penn State, clock 00:14
-0.3
Q2 0:14
Timeout Oregon, clock 00:14
+0.2
Q2 0:10
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 4 yds to the PSU 14
0.0
Q2 0:10
Timeout Oregon, clock 00:10
-0.8
Q2 0:07
Atticus Sappington 32 yd FG GOOD
+6.7
Q2 0:07
Atticus Sappington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-1.3
Q2 0:00
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the PSU 20
-1.8
Q3 15:00
Atticus Sappington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+4.1
Q3 14:56
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the PSU 31
-5.8
Q3 14:16
Drew Allar pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 3 yds to the PSU 34
0.0
Q3 13:38
Tyler Warren run for 2 yds to the PSU 36 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q3 13:07
Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the PSU 44
+2.8
Q3 12:25
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the PSU 48 for a 1ST down
-1.4
Q3 12:06
Kaytron Allen run for 10 yds to the ORE 42 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 11:14
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 14 yds to the ORE 28 for a 1ST down
-1.0
Q3 10:39
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the ORE 27
-0.2
Q3 10:19
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Tyler Warren
0.0
Q3 10:13
Drew Allar run for 4 yds to the ORE 23
0.0
Q3 9:27
Ryan Barker 40 yd FG MISSED
+3.8
Q3 9:21
Jordan James run for 11 yds to the ORE 34 for a 1ST down
+9.6
Q3 8:55
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tez Johnson
0.0
Q3 8:44
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 17 yds to the PSU 49 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 8:10
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 1 yd to the PSU 48
+0.8
Q3 7:36
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 48 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
+14.1
Q3 7:36
Atticus Sappington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.2
Q3 7:30
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 9 yds to the PSU 34
-2.3
Q3 7:12
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PSU 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 6:43
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the PSU 42
0.0
Q3 6:25
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Tyler Warren
0.0
Q3 6:24
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Kaytron Allen
0.0
Q3 6:14
Riley Thompson punt for 49 yds , Gary Bryant Jr. returns for no gain to the ORE 9
0.0
Q3 6:10
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 9 yds to the ORE 18
+2.3
Q3 5:34
Noah Whittington run for 15 yds to the ORE 33 for a 1ST down
+0.7
Q3 4:58
Noah Whittington run for 9 yds to the ORE 42
0.0
Q3 4:26
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Patrick Herbert
+1.0
Q3 4:22
Jordan James run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 3:41
Noah Whittington run for no gain to the 50 yard line
0.0
Q3 3:07
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the PSU 46
0.0
Q3 2:20
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Noah Whittington for 1 yd to the PSU 45
+1.8
Q3 1:40
Luke Dunne punt for 42 yds, downed at the PSU 3
+0.5
Q3 1:33
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PSU 6 for a 1ST down Oregon Penalty, Personal Foul (Derrick Harmon) to the PSU 21 for a 1ST down
-5.3
Q3 1:04
Kaytron Allen run for 32 yds to the ORE 47 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 0:39
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the ORE 45
-0.4
Q3 0:00
Kaytron Allen run for 26 yds to the ORE 19 for a 1ST down
+4.1
Q4 14:53
Beau Pribula run for 18 yds to the ORE 1 for a 1ST down
-0.7
Q4 14:17
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-10.5
Q4 14:17
Gabriel Nwosu kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.8
Q4 13:59
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORE 24 Dillon Gabriel fumbled, recovered by ORE Dillon Gabriel
-0.2
Q4 13:41
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 5 yds to the ORE 29
0.0
Q4 13:18
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jordan James for 11 yds to the ORE 40 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 12:39
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the ORE 38
+0.1
Q4 11:52
Dillon Gabriel run for 3 yds to the ORE 41
0.0
Q4 11:24
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 16 yds to the PSU 43 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q4 11:00
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the PSU 38
+1.6
Q4 10:28
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the PSU 35
0.0
Q4 9:32
Jordan James run for no gain to the PSU 35
-0.3
Q4 8:51
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 20 yds to the PSU 15 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 8:09
Jordan James run for 12 yds to the PSU 3 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 7:28
Jordan James run for 3 yds for a TD (Andrew Boyle KICK)
+9.5
Q4 7:28
Atticus Sappington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q4 7:18
Drew Allar run for 22 yds to the PSU 47 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q4 7:01
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Tyler Warren
0.0
Q4 6:55
Beau Pribula sacked by Derrick Harmon for a loss of 6 yards to the PSU 41
0.0
Q4 6:09
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 16 yds to the ORE 43 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 5:51
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Omari Evans
-0.4
Q4 5:45
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for no gain to the ORE 43
0.0
Q4 5:05
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 13 yds to the ORE 30 for a 1ST down
+0.7
Q4 4:43
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 3 yds to the ORE 27
0.0
Q4 4:20
Drew Allar run for 13 yds to the ORE 14 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 4:06
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Tyler Warren
0.0
Q4 4:06
Timeout Penn State, clock 04:06
+0.1
Q4 4:00
Beau Pribula run for no gain to the ORE 14
0.0
Q4 3:50
Timeout Oregon, clock 03:50
-0.5
Q4 3:47
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace III
0.0
Q4 3:41
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 14 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)
-1.9
Q4 3:41
Gabriel Nwosu kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.1
Q4 3:36
Noah Whittington run for no gain to the ORE 25
-1.0
Q4 2:55
Noah Whittington run for 1 yd to the ORE 26
+0.8
Q4 2:16
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Evan Stewart
0.0
Q4 2:11
Ross James punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Zion Tracy at the PSU 37
0.0
Q4 2:00
Nicholas Singleton run for 9 yds to the PSU 46
+0.9
Q4 1:54
Drew Allar pass intercepted Nikko Reed return for no gain to the ORE 16
+0.4
Q4 1:50
Noah Whittington run for 7 yds to the ORE 23
-0.6
Q4 1:49
Timeout Penn State, clock 01:49
0.0
Q4 1:45
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the ORE 25
0.0
Q4 1:45
Timeout Penn State, clock 01:45
0.0
Q4 1:42
Dillon Gabriel run for 7 yds to the ORE 32 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:10
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORE 31
0.0
Q4 0:32
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ORE 29
+0.2
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:53
Drew Allar run for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)
-24.5
TD · Q1 1:24
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 22 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)
-19.4
TD · Q2 10:05
Jordan James run for 1 yd for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
+18.3
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com