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ORE

Oregon 38 at Michigan 17

MICH
2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:40 · Ross James punt for 32 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Pregame prior−26.6Home team on offense−3.9Score differential−1.5Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:31: Davis Warren pass complete to Tyler Morris for 7 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — MICH win probability +3.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:19: Noah Whittington run for 6 yds for a TD (Andrew Boyle KICK) — ORE win probability +5.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:35: Dillon Gabriel run for 23 yds for a TD (Andrew Boyle KICK) — ORE win probability +7.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:09: Davis Warren pass complete to Peyton O'Leary for 6 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — MICH win probability +8.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 0:36: Atticus Sappington 26 yd FG GOOD — ORE win probability +4.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:19MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:50MICH 4th & 12 at MICH 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:37MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:40ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:00MICH 4th & 5 at ORE 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    22.7%−1.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:51MICH 4th & 11 at ORE 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:44ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 31, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:36ORE 4th & 8 at MICH 8, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    75.8%−6.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:42MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:23ORE 4th & 13 at ORE 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−1.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:24MICH 4th & 5 at ORE 10, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.7%−1.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    8.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−4.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 6:53ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:31MICH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:30ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:19ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:35ORE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:09MICH Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:25ORE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2416% → 17%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
15.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the MICH 27Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+8
16.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the MICH 35Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
16.4%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+21
16.5%
Tommy Doman punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ORE 37 , Tez Johnson returns for 21 yds to the ORE 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2TD
12 plays · 63 yds · 6:1884% → 83%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
16.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Justius Lowe for 6 yds to the ORE 43Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+11
16.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 11 yds to the MICH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
16.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Justius Lowe for 9 yds to the MICH 37Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+4
17.0%
Jordan James run for 4 yds to the MICH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
17.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Justius Lowe for 2 yds to the MICH 31Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+3
17.4%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the MICH 28Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+9
17.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 9 yds to the MICH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
17.9%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the MICH 16Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+8
18.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for 8 yds to the MICH 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
18.4%
Dillon Gabriel run for 3 yds to the MICH 5Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
18.6%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the MICH 2Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
17.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 2 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:5218% → 18%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
17.9%
Colston Loveland run for 2 yds to the MICH 23Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
18.0%
Davis Warren run for 6 yds to the MICH 29Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
18.2%
Davis Warren run for 6 yds to the MICH 23 Davis Warren fumbled, recovered by MICH Davis WarrenSimilar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+49
18.0%
Tommy Doman punt for 49 yds , Ryan Pellum returns for no gain to the ORE 28 Ryan Pellum fumbled, recovered by MICH C.J. CharlestonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4TD
6 plays · 28 yds · 3:0820% → 24%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
19.5%
Semaj Morgan run for no gain to the ORE 28Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+18
19.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 18 yds to the ORE 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
20.1%
(03:18) Shotgun Orji,Alex rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ORD06 (Savage,Kobe; Uiagalelei,Matayo) PENALTY UOM Illegal Shift (Klein,Marlin) 5 yards from ORD10 to ORD15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+4
20.2%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the ORE 11Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+4
20.2%
Alex Orji run for 4 yds to the ORE 7Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
23.9%
Davis Warren pass complete to Tyler Morris for 7 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5478% → 82%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
22.4%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the ORE 28Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+24
22.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for 24 yds to the MICH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
21.9%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Gabriel,Dillon pass incomplete short left to Stewart,Evan thrown to UOM43 PENALTY UOM Roughing The Passer (Stewart,Josaiah) 15 yards from UOM48 to UOM33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
21.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+12
21.8%
Jordan James run for 12 yds to the MICH 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+20
21.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 20 yds to the MICH 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.3%
Noah Whittington run for 1 yd for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:4520% → 20%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
19.7%
Kalel Mullings run for 7 yds to the MICH 32Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
20.5%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the MICH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
20.3%
Alex Orji run for 5 yds to the MICH 41Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
21.2%
Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the MICH 39Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
20.5%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:37
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
20.1%
Tommy Doman punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Evan Stewart at the ORE 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5080% → 79%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
20.3%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the ORE 15Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
20.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
20.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
21.3%
Ross James punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2922% → 21%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
22.3%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 13
50
0
21.4%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 13
50
+8
20.9%
Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 8 yds to the ORE 42Similar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
21.4%
Tommy Doman punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
10 plays · 94 yds · 4:2879% → 86%
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
21.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Patrick Herbert for 5 yds to the ORE 11Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 5
OWN 11
0
21.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+5
20.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 5 yds to the ORE 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
20.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Justius Lowe for 5 yds to the ORE 21Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+11
20.1%
Jordan James run for 11 yds to the ORE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
19.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Justius Lowe for 15 yds to the ORE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
19.2%
Jordan James run for 8 yds to the MICH 45Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+1
19.0%
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the MICH 44Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+38
19.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 38 yds to the MICH 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
14.0%
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds for a TD (Andrew Boyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:2115% → 18%
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
15.0%
Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the MICH 27Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+18
15.1%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 18 yds to the MICH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+36
16.0%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 36 yds to the ORE 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
16.4%
Alex Orji pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+1
16.3%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the ORE 20Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
15.3%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+38
17.6%
Dominic Zvada 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 1:0582% → 92%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
17.7%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the ORE 22Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+44
17.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 44 yds to the MICH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
15.5%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun Gabriel,Dillon pass complete deep middle to Stewart,Evan caught at UOM00, for 0 yards to the UOM34 PENALTY ORD Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Harper II,Marcus) 5 yards from UOM34 to UOM39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 15
OPP 39
0
15.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+14
15.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 14 yds to the MICH 25Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
15.6%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the MICH 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
15.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
7.8%
Dillon Gabriel run for 23 yds for a TD (Andrew Boyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
10.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MICH 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0991% → 90%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
9.4%
Jordan James run for 4 yds to the ORE 29Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
9.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
9.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Patrick Herbert for 2 yds to the ORE 31Similar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
9.8%
Ross James punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyler Morris at the MICH 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 6:3011% → 19%
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
10.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MICH 27Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+34
10.2%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 34 yds to the ORE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
11.2%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the ORE 35Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+1
11.5%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 1 yd to the ORE 34Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+12
11.0%
Davis Warren pass complete to Tyler Morris for 12 yds to the ORE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
11.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the ORE 26Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 14
OPP 26
+20
10.7%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 20 yds to the ORE 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
11.1%
Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the ORE 4Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
11.0%
Alex Orji run for 2 yds to the ORE 6Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
19.0%
Davis Warren pass complete to Peyton O'Leary for 6 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15FG
19 plays · 67 yds · 6:2583% → 91%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
16.9%
Jordan James run for 9 yds to the ORE 34Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
16.5%
Jordan James run for no gain to the ORE 34Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
17.0%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the ORE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
16.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
16.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 6 yds to the ORE 42Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
15.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+5
16.7%
(04:39) PENALTY UOM Offside (Pierce,Trey) 5 yards from ORD42 to ORD47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
15.2%
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the MICH 47Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+1
14.9%
Noah Whittington run for 1 yd to the MICH 46Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+5
14.6%
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the MICH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
14.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 4 yds to the MICH 37Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+5
14.0%
(02:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Gabriel,Dillon pass incomplete deep left to Stewart,Evan thrown to UOM00 PENALTY UOM Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UOM37 to UOM32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+22
13.7%
Jordan James run for 22 yds to the MICH 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
13.6%
Dillon Gabriel run for 3 yds to the MICH 13Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+5
13.7%
Jordan James run for 5 yds to the MICH 8Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
13.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
9.2%
Atticus Sappington 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4710% → 10%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.2%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
10.0%
Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the MICH 27Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
10.0%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:42
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
10.0%
Tommy Doman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Evan Stewart at the ORE 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:1391% → 93%
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
9.1%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the ORE 32Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+8
7.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Justius Lowe for 8 yds to the ORE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
6.9%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the ORE 42Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-5
6.7%
PENALTY ORD False Start (Strother,Nishad) 5 yards from ORD42 to ORD37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 13
OWN 37
0
7.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 13
OWN 37
0
7.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
7.5%
Ross James punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18DOWNS
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:5910% → 7%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
9.7%
PENALTY UOM False Start (Klein,Marlin) 5 yards from UOM20 to UOM15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+3
9.6%
Alex Orji run for 3 yds to the MICH 18Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
9.4%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+19
9.4%
Davis Warren pass complete to Tyler Morris for 19 yds to the MICH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
10.1%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 6 yds to the MICH 43Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+16
8.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 16 yds to the ORE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
9.0%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+26
8.9%
Alex Orji run for 26 yds to the ORE 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
8.1%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
7.6%
Alex Orji run for 3 yds to the ORE 12Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+2
6.8%
Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the ORE 10Similar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 5
OPP 10
0
6.5%
Semaj Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 6:5295% → 100%
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
4.9%
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the ORE 16Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+1
4.9%
Noah Whittington run for 1 yd to the ORE 15Similar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+10
4.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 10 yds to the ORE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
4.4%
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the ORE 30Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
3.9%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the ORE 32Similar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+47
3.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 47 yds to the MICH 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
2.5%
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the MICH 22Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+13
2.5%
Jordan James run for 13 yds to the MICH 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
1.9%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the MICH 7Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
1.4%
Jordan James run for 5 yds to the MICH 2Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.3%
Jordan James run for 2 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20END OF GAME
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:141% → 1%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
0.6%
Davis Warren pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 1 yd to the MICH 21Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
0.6%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+6
0.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the MICH 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:09
Davis Warren pass complete to Peyton O'Leary for 6 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+8
TD · Q2 0:35
Dillon Gabriel run for 23 yds for a TD (Andrew Boyle KICK)
-7.7
TD · Q2 4:19
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds for a TD (Andrew Boyle KICK)
-5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com