Try the model
OSU

Ohio State 31 at Oregon 32

ORE
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · Autzen Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of GameFG+3.3ORE 48.6%Atticus Sappington 27 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 15 · Q2 10:09
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:09 · Atticus Sappington 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+12.5+6.30−6.3−12.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 58Pregame prior−6.5Home team on offense+1.7Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:17: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 48 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK) — ORE win probability +14.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:27: Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 6 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +18.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:20: Dillon Gabriel run for 27 yds for a TD (Andrew Boyle KICK) — ORE win probability +21.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 6:00: Jayden Fielding 40 yd FG GOOD — OSU win probability +16.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:47: Atticus Sappington 19 yd FG GOOD — ORE win probability +33.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 8 of 9OSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:22OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:32ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:42OSU 4th & 18 at OSU 17, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−1.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:43ORE 4th & 8 at OSU 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:09ORE 4th & 9 at OSU 9, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    42.4%−4.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:28OSU 4th & 2 at OSU 49, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.1%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:44OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:06ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:35ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 44, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:14ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 48, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.5%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:37ORE 4th & 2 at OSU 2, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    35.6%−3.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−16.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:37ORE 4th & 2 at OSU 2, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    35.6%−3.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−16.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:11OSU 4th & 13 at OSU 17, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−4.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:00OSU 4th & 13 at ORE 22, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−7.7
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−16.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:47ORE 4th & 1 at OSU 1, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−6.6
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.8%
    94% to make
    Punt
    16.5%−44.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 2 of 4OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:00OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:51ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    45.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:22OSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:31ORE Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    45.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:53OSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:17ORE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:27OSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:20ORE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4960% → 60%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
40.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for 6 yds to the OSU 31Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
40.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 4 yds to the OSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
40.8%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
40.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OSU 38Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+6
41.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 6 yds to the OSU 44Similar
Q1 12:22
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+3
41.2%
Will Howard run for 3 yds to the OSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+32
41.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 32 yds to the ORE 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
41.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the ORE 18Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+17
41.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 17 yds to the ORE 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.6%
Will Howard run for 1 yd for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:2140% → 40%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.3%
Jordan James run for 5 yds to the ORE 30Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
40.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 4 yds to the ORE 34Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
40.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for 2 yds to the ORE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
40.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
40.1%
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the ORE 37Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+6
39.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jordan James for 6 yds to the ORE 43Similar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
40.1%
Ross James punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:5160% → 60%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
39.7%
Emeka Egbuka run for 13 yds to the OSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
39.5%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
39.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the OSU 28Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
39.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the OSU 28 Quinshon Judkins fumbled, recovered by ORE Derrick HarmonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4TD
2 plays · 28 yds · 0:3941% → 44%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+25
41.2%
Jordan James run for 25 yds to the OSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
43.9%
Jordan James run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · -8 yds · 3:0057% → 55%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
43.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for a loss of 2 yards to the OSU 23Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-5
43.1%
(05:11) PENALTY OSU False Start (Simmons,Josh) 5 yards from OSU23 to OSU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+6
43.9%
Will Howard run for 6 yds to the OSU 24Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
44.3%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Scott Jr.,Gee) 5 yards from OSU24 to OSU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+3
44.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 3 yds to the OSU 22Similar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 13
OWN 22
-5
44.7%
PENALTY OSU Delay Of Game (McGuire,Joe) 5 yards from OSU22 to OSU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
44.7%
Joe McGuire punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the ORE 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6MISSED FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:4944% → 44%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
44.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 3 yds to the ORE 44Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+28
44.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 28 yds to the OSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
45.5%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Gabriel,Dillon pass complete short left to Holden,Traeshon caught at OSU32, for 0 yards to the OSU28, out of bounds at OSU28 PENALTY ORE Illegal Shift (Johnson,Tez) 5 yards from OSU28 to OSU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+7
45.4%
Jordan James run for 7 yds to the OSU 26Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
46.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:47
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
45.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:43
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+44
44.2%
Atticus Sappington 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:1257% → 64%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
43.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 17 yds to the OSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+53
42.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 53 yds to the ORE 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
41.2%
Will Howard run for 3 yds to the ORE 1Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4137% → 45%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
37.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the ORE 23Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+69
37.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 69 yds to the OSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
39.8%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the OSU 10Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
47.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
44.7%
PENALTY OSU Personal Foul (Hancock,Jordan) 15 yards from ORE35 to ORE50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9FG
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:0747% → 49%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+32
46.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 32 yds to the OSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
47.4%
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the OSU 10Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-15
47.5%
PENALTY ORE UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Holden,Traeshon) 15 yards from OSU10 to OSU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 25
+3
46.3%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the OSU 22Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
+13
45.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 13 yds to the OSU 9Similar
Q2 10:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
48.6%
Atticus Sappington 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:1052% → 68%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
47.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd to the OSU 26Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
47.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for no gain to the OSU 26Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
48.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for 15 yds to the OSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
46.3%
Will Howard pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 3 yds to the OSU 44Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+6
46.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 1
50
+1
46.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the OSU 49Similar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+3
47.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the ORE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
46.5%
Emeka Egbuka run for 7 yds to the ORE 41Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+5
46.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the ORE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+21
46.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 21 yds to the ORE 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
45.4%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
32.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 15 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3137% → 54%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
36.6%
Jordan James run for 9 yds to the ORE 34Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
38.2%
Jordan James run for 6 yds to the ORE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
38.1%
Jordan James run for 6 yds to the ORE 46Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
38.6%
Jordan James run for 5 yds to the OSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
39.1%
Noah Whittington run for 1 yd to the OSU 48Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
38.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+48
53.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 48 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:1949% → 49%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
51.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 6 yds to the OSU 31Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
50.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 3 yds to the OSU 34Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
50.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for no gain to the OSU 34Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
51.5%
Joe McGuire punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the ORE 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:1851% → 50%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
51.0%
Dillon Gabriel run for 3 yds to the ORE 33Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
51.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+1
49.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 1 yd to the ORE 34Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
49.6%
Ross James punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Brandon Inniss at the OSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
51.7%
W. Howard takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:1954% → 53%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.6%
Jordan James run for no gain to the ORE 25Similar
Q3 14:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
53.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
52.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 17 yds to the ORE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
56.1%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the ORE 44Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
56.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
54.6%
Dillon Gabriel run for no gain to the ORE 44Similar
Q3 12:35
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
53.1%
Ross James punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 3:0147% → 70%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
53.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the OSU 24Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+38
53.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 38 yds to the ORE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
50.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the ORE 35Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+25
48.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for 25 yds to the ORE 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
48.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 4 yds to the ORE 6Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
30.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 6 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17DOWNS
16 plays · 73 yds · 5:4237% → 38%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
37.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 4 yds to the ORE 29Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
37.7%
Kenyon Sadiq run for 1 yd to the ORE 30Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
36.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 9 yds to the ORE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
38.5%
Oregon Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
38.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Justius Lowe for 9 yds to the ORE 48Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
39.9%
(07:18) Shotgun Gabriel,Dillon pass incomplete short right to Sadiq,Kenyon thrown to OSU34 PENALTY OSU Pass Interference offsetting ORE Ineligible Downfield on Pass offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
39.2%
Jordan James run for no gain to the ORE 48Similar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+32
37.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 32 yds to the OSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
42.4%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the OSU 18Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+9
42.4%
Jordan James run for 9 yds to the OSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
42.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
42.1%
Jordan James run for 7 yds to the OSU 2Similar
Q3 3:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
39.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
37.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
37.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 3:2068% → 68%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
32.5%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OSU 5Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+15
32.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 15 yds to the OSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
31.4%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the OSU 24Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
29.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OSU 27Similar
Q3 0:19
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+10
29.0%
Will Howard run for 10 yds to the OSU 17 Will Howard fumbled, recovered by OSU Will HowardSimilar
Q3 0:11
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
32.4%
Joe McGuire punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the ORE 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 1:4038% → 64%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
38.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 9 yds to the ORE 49Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+16
39.8%
Jordan James run for 16 yds to the OSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
42.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 8 yds to the OSU 27Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 2
OPP 27
0
42.3%
Jordan James run for no gain to the OSU 27Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+27
63.7%
Dillon Gabriel run for 27 yds for a TD (Andrew Boyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20FG
16 plays · 53 yds · 7:1442% → 61%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the OSU 25Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
57.9%
Will Howard run for 6 yds to the OSU 31Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
58.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 5 yds to the OSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
56.4%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
57.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OSU 39Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+18
57.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 18 yds to the ORE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
53.2%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Michalski,Zen) 5 yards from ORE43 to ORE48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+8
54.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 8 yds to the ORE 40Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+10
53.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 10 yds to the ORE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
51.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 11 yds to the ORE 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
50.8%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Tshabola,Tegra) 5 yards from ORE19 to ORE24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+1
52.2%
Will Howard run for 1 yd to the ORE 23Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 14
OPP 23
+1
51.4%
Will Howard pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 1 yd to the ORE 22Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 13
OPP 22
0
55.5%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 13
OPP 22
+40
39.3%
Jayden Fielding 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21FG
15 plays · 74 yds · 3:5747% → 74%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Noah Whittington for 5 yds to the ORE 30Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
46.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 5 yds to the ORE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
45.8%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the ORE 37Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
43.9%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the ORE 39Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+9
43.2%
Jordan James run for 9 yds to the ORE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+26
47.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 26 yds to the OSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
51.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 2 yds to the OSU 24Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+15
50.8%
(02:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Gabriel,Dillon pass incomplete deep left to Stewart,Evan thrown to OSU00 PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Hancock,Jordan) 15 yards from OSU24 to OSU09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
50.4%
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the OSU 5Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
49.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Noah Whittington for 3 yds to the OSU 2Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
46.0%
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the OSU 1Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
73.6%
Atticus Sappington 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22END OF GAME
12 plays · 49 yds · 1:3634% → 25%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
66.5%
Will Howard sacked by Matayo Uiagalelei for a loss of 9 yards to the OSU 16Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+13
68.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 13 yds to the OSU 29Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
68.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 8 yds to the OSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
65.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 9 yds to the OSU 46Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+26
59.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 26 yds to the ORE 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
54.2%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-15
56.9%
(00:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Howard,Will pass complete short middle to Smith,Jeremiah caught at ORE21, for 0 yards to the ORE28 PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Smith,Jeremiah) 15 yards from ORE28 to ORE43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 25
OPP 43
0
69.1%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 25
OPP 43
+5
72.9%
(00:09) No Huddle-Shotgun Howard,Will pass incomplete short left to Smith,Jeremiah thrown to ORE30 broken up by Muhammad,Jabbar PENALTY ORE Illegal Substitution (Caldwell,Jamaree) 5 yards from ORE43 to ORE38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 20
OPP 38
+12
74.7%
Will Howard run for 12 yds to the ORE 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 1:47
Atticus Sappington 19 yd FG GOOD
+33.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+25.3
TD · Q4 13:20
Dillon Gabriel run for 27 yds for a TD (Andrew Boyle KICK)
+21.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com