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Oregon 16 at Wisconsin 13

WIS
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of GameFG+0.3WIS 21.5%Atticus Sappington 35 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 0 · Q1 9:01
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:01 · Atticus Sappington 35 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Pregame prior−29.2Home team on offense−0.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:25: Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 2 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +13.4 pts (now 44%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 4:43: Nathanial Vakos 35 yd FG GOOD — WIS win probability +5.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:14: Jordan James run for 11 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK) — ORE win probability +27.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 2:36: Atticus Sappington 24 yd FG GOOD — ORE win probability +19.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:32: Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete — ORE win probability +3.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 10 of 10ORE made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:37WIS 4th & 14 at WIS 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:01ORE 4th & 6 at WIS 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:05WIS 4th & 14 at WIS 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:25WIS 4th & 10 at WIS 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:11ORE 4th & 5 at WIS 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:19WIS 4th & 11 at ORE 14, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:55ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:53WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:55ORE 4th & 7 at ORE 48, up 3
    Close callPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:05ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:28WIS 4th & 1 at ORE 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    50.4%−2.9
    66% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−11.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:43WIS 4th & 18 at ORE 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−4.6
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    42.4%−11.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00ORE 4th & 9 at WIS 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    31.2%−1.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:43WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−4.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:00ORE 4th & 25 at ORE 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−11.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:35WIS 4th & 19 at WIS 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−12.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:36ORE 4th & 6 at WIS 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−1.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−28.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:48WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.9%−2.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:45ORE 4th & 4 at WIS 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    82.9%−0.7
    75% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−21.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ORE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 0:25WIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 13:14ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2319% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.9%
Tawee Walker run for no gain to the WIS 25Similar
Q1 14:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-4
19.2%
Braedyn Locke sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the WIS 21 Braedyn Locke fumbled, recovered by WIS , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
19.3%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
19.5%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 4:1180% → 79%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
19.7%
Jordan James run for 4 yds to the ORE 44Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
19.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+10
19.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 10 yds to the WIS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
20.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for a loss of 1 yard to the WIS 47Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+14
20.3%
Jordan James run for 14 yds to the WIS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
20.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 8 yds to the WIS 25Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+4
20.4%
Dillon Gabriel run for 4 yds to the WIS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
20.6%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the WIS 19Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+1
20.8%
Noah Whittington run for 1 yd to the WIS 18Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+1
21.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 1 yd to the WIS 17Similar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+35
21.5%
Atticus Sappington 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:0121% → 22%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
21.4%
Tawee Walker run for 1 yd to the WIS 27Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-5
21.6%
Wisconsin Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WIS 22Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 14
OWN 22
0
21.5%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:05
4TH & 14
OWN 22
0
21.5%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 51 yds , Gary Bryant Jr. returns for no gain to the ORE 27Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
21.9%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4INT
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:3278% → 78%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
21.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Justius Lowe for 2 yds to the ORE 29Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+25
22.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 25 yds to the WIS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
21.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 5 yds to the WIS 41Similar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
22.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+32
22.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 32 yds to the WIS 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
22.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted Nyzier Fourqurean return for 10 yds to the WIS 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2523% → 23%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
22.7%
Darrion Dupree run for a loss of 1 yard to the WIS 10Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+1
23.0%
Darrion Dupree run for 1 yd to the WIS 11Similar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 10
OWN 11
0
22.7%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Gary Bryant Jr. at the ORE 46Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 10
OWN 11
0
22.9%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:4977% → 77%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
23.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Noah Whittington for 1 yd to the ORE 47Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+24
23.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for 24 yds to the WIS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
23.0%
(03:16) WHITTINGTON, Noah rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the WIS24 (HILLS, Elijah), clock 03:32. PENALTY ORE Holding on FERGUSON, Terrance enforced 10 yards from the WIS29 to the WIS39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+5
23.5%
Wisconsin Penalty, Delay Of Game (5 Yards) to the WIS 34Similar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 25
OPP 44
+1
23.5%
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the WIS 43Similar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 15
OPP 34
-10
23.2%
(02:57) GABRIEL, Dillon pass up the middle incomplete intended for LOWE, Justius thrown to the WIS25, clock 03:07. PENALTY ORE Holding on CONERLY JR., Josh enforced 10 yards from the WIS34 to the WIS44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 24
OPP 43
+13
23.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 13 yds to the WIS 30Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+6
23.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 6 yds to the WIS 24Similar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+42
22.7%
Atticus Sappington 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7FG
15 plays · 56 yds · 5:2224% → 29%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
23.7%
Tawee Walker run for 4 yds to the WIS 34Similar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+8
24.3%
Tawee Walker run for 8 yds to the WIS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
24.7%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Bryson Green for 13 yds to the ORE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
25.4%
Tawee Walker run for 3 yds to the ORE 42Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+3
25.6%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 3 yds to the ORE 39Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 4
OPP 39
-10
25.8%
Wisconsin Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bryson Green) to the ORE 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
26.2%
Tawee Walker run for 8 yds to the ORE 19Similar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+1
24.9%
Tawee Walker run for 1 yd to the ORE 18Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 2
OPP 19
0
25.7%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:20
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+5
24.5%
Oregon Penalty, Delay Of Game (Gary Bryant Jr.) to the ORE 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
26.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Tawee Walker for a loss of 1 yard to the ORE 14Similar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+31
27.2%
Nathanial Vakos 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
29.4%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 11
OPP 14
0
28.6%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:2473% → 73%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
26.6%
Jordan James run for 6 yds to the ORE 31Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
26.0%
Jordan James run for 6 yds to the ORE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
26.3%
Jordan James run for no gain to the ORE 37Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
26.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+4
27.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 4 yds to the ORE 41Similar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
26.9%
Ross James punt for 39 yds, downed at the WIS 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:2127% → 27%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
26.6%
Darrion Dupree run for 6 yds to the WIS 26Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
26.9%
Darrion Dupree run for 5 yds to the WIS 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
27.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for a loss of 3 yards to the WIS 28Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+7
26.9%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 7 yds to the WIS 35Similar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
26.5%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 38 ydsSimilar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
27.0%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:5273% → 71%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
26.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 7 yds to the ORE 34Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+2
26.5%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the ORE 36Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+9
26.8%
Jordan James run for 9 yds to the ORE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
26.2%
Jordan James run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 5
50
-2
26.1%
Jordan James run for a loss of 2 yards to the ORE 48Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
27.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:55
4TH & 7
OWN 48
+13
28.6%
Ross James punt for 40 yds , Hunter Wohler returns for 13 yds to the WIS 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 2:5429% → 44%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.7%
Tawee Walker run for 3 yds to the WIS 28Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
28.9%
Oregon Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the WIS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
30.9%
Tawee Walker run for 9 yds to the WIS 49Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
32.1%
Tawee Walker run for 2 yds to the ORE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
32.4%
(00:55) LOCKE, Braedyn pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GREEN, Bryson broken up by HARMON, Derrick at the ORE28, clock 00:52. PENALTY WIS Holding on NELSON, Jack enforced 10 yards from the ORE49 to the WIS41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+43
30.0%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 43 yds to the ORE 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
30.7%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+10
29.3%
(00:35) LOCKE, Braedyn pass to the left incomplete intended for PAULING, Will thrown to the ORE0, clock 00:31. PENALTY ORE Pass Interference on REED, Nikko enforced 10 yards to the ORE2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
30.7%
Vinny Anthony II run for 4 yds to the ORE 12Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
44.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 2 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
Q2 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
44.2%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:0560% → 61%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.2%
Jordan James run for 5 yds to the ORE 30Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
39.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jordan James for 15 yds to the ORE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:0159% → 60%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
41.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jordan James for 10 yds to the ORE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
41.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 4 yds to the ORE 39Similar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
41.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:05
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
43.0%
Ross James punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
39.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14FG
17 plays · 62 yds · 9:1143% → 63%
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
42.9%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Tucker Ashcraft for 13 yds to the WIS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
44.1%
Tawee Walker run for 9 yds to the WIS 42Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+3
46.6%
Darrion Dupree run for 3 yds to the WIS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
46.8%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 7 yds to the ORE 48Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+3
51.6%
Tawee Walker run for 3 yds to the ORE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
52.3%
Tawee Walker run for 11 yds to the ORE 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
54.1%
Darrion Dupree run for 2 yds to the ORE 32Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+6
54.5%
Darrion Dupree run for 6 yds to the ORE 26Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+1
53.4%
Darrion Dupree run for 1 yd to the ORE 25Similar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+3
52.3%
Tawee Walker run for 3 yds to the ORE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
56.2%
Tawee Walker run for 5 yds to the ORE 17Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+7
57.1%
Darrion Dupree run for 7 yds to the ORE 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
57.5%
Darrion Dupree run for 3 yds to the ORE 7Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
58.3%
Tawee Walker run for 1 yd to the ORE 6Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-7
57.3%
Braedyn Locke sacked by Matayo Uiagalelei for a loss of 7 yards to the ORE 18Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
57.6%
Wisconsin Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on NELSON, Jack enforced (-5 Yards) to the ORE 11Similar
Q3 4:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 18
+35
62.9%
Nathanial Vakos 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15TD
13 plays · 81 yds · 6:2440% → 63%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
60.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 5 yds to the ORE 24Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+8
60.8%
Jordan James run for 8 yds to the ORE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
61.2%
Dillon Gabriel run for 3 yds to the ORE 35Similar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
60.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+12
62.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 12 yds to the ORE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
59.5%
Jordan James run for 11 yds to the WIS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
61.2%
Jordan James run for 5 yds to the WIS 37Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
61.1%
Dillon Gabriel run for no gain to the WIS 37Similar
Q3 0:23
3RD & 5
OPP 37
-4
63.2%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by John Pius for a loss of 4 yards to the WIS 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 41
+15
67.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 15 yds to the WIS 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
61.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 12 yds to the WIS 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
64.6%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the WIS 11Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
37.1%
Jordan James run for 11 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:1248% → 46%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.4%
Tawee Walker run for no gain to the WIS 25Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
48.5%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Darrion Dupree for 1 yd to the WIS 26Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
46.9%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to C.J. Williams for 5 yds to the WIS 31Similar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-5
47.3%
Wisconsin Penalty, False Start (Vinny Anthony II) to the WIS 26Similar
Q4 10:43
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
46.4%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Gary Bryant Jr. at the ORE 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:5756% → 50%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
44.0%
Oregon Penalty, False Start (Ajani Cornelius) to the ORE 27Similar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+8
45.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 8 yds to the ORE 35Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+22
44.1%
Dillon Gabriel run for 22 yds to the WIS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
40.9%
Jordan James run for no gain to the WIS 43Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
41.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for no gain to the WIS 43Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-15
43.3%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Curt Neal and Xavier Lucas for a loss of 15 yards to the ORE 42Similar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 25
OWN 42
0
49.9%
Ross James punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:2152% → 49%
Q4 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
51.9%
Tawee Walker run for 2 yds to the WIS 22Similar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
52.3%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-12
49.9%
(07:00) LOCKE, Braedyn pass to the right complete for 12 yards to KEKAHUNA, Trech caught at the WIS34 and advanced to the WIS34 (JOHNSON, Tysheem), clock 07:07. PENALTY WIS Chop Block on RENFRO, Jake enforced half the distance from the goal, 11 yards from the WIS22 to the WIS11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 19
OWN 11
0
49.7%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 19
OWN 11
+12
48.6%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 44 yds , Gary Bryant Jr. returns for 12 yds to the WIS 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19FG
9 plays · 37 yds · 4:1759% → 83%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
41.3%
Jordan James run for 9 yds to the WIS 34Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+12
39.2%
Jordan James run for 12 yds to the WIS 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
39.3%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the WIS 19Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+3
39.6%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the WIS 16Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+8
42.2%
Dillon Gabriel run for 8 yds to the WIS 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
40.1%
Jordan James run for no gain to the WIS 8Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
40.2%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the WIS 6Similar
Q4 2:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
20.3%
Atticus Sappington 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 2:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
17.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4832% → 27%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
32.4%
Wisconsin Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the WIS 20Similar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
31.9%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 6 yds to the WIS 26Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
29.7%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
32.3%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
27.4%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:1587% → 90%
Q4 1:54
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+1
12.7%
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the WIS 20Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+3
13.5%
Ross James run for 3 yds to the WIS 17Similar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
9.7%
Jordan James run for 6 yds to the WIS 20Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 4
OPP 20
-1
9.6%
Jordan James run for a loss of 1 yard to the WIS 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22INT
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:1230% → 28%
Q4 1:38
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+1
29.9%
Braedyn Locke pass intercepted Matayo Uiagalelei return for a loss of 1 yard to the WIS 25Similar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
27.9%
Braedyn Locke run for 7 yds to the WIS 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:5190% → 94%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-4
9.7%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 4 yards to the WIS 29Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 14
OPP 29
-4
8.8%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 4 yards to the WIS 33Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 18
OPP 33
-3
5.7%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 3 yards to the WIS 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:14
Jordan James run for 11 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
-27.5
FG · Q4 2:36
Atticus Sappington 24 yd FG GOOD
-19.9
TD · Q2 0:25
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 2 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
+13.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com