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Oregon 49 at Arizona State 13

ASU
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Kneel down by Oregon at ASU39 for loss of 1 yard.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:34: Bo Nix pass complete to Patrick Herbert for 23 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ASU win probability +0.7 pts (now 6%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 6:53: Bo Nix pass complete to Patrick Herbert for 49 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +0.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 0:27: Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 16 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +1.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 9:40: Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 45 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +1.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 7:22: Bo Nix pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 71 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +0.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:51ASU 4th & 12 at ORE 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:22ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:37ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:37ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 44, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.0%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:07ORE 4th & 3 at ASU 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.5%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:05ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 29, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:35ASU 4th & 3 at ORE 42, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:35ASU 4th & 1 at ORE 26, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:38ASU 4th & 7 at ORE 43, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:33ASU 4th & 5 at ORE 20, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:19ORE 4th & 2 at ASU 32, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:11ASU 4th & 2 at ORE 47, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:11ASU 4th & 3 at ORE 22, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:09ASU 4th & 13 at ORE 16, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 11:34ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:53ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:27ORE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:40ORE Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:22ORE Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:10ORE Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:20ORE Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:39ASU Touchdown, down 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2694% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Bucky IrvingSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
5.7%
Bucky Irving run for 1 yd to the ORE 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+18
5.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 18 yds to the ORE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
5.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Troy FranklinSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+10
5.7%
Bo Nix run for 10 yds to the ASU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
5.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 8 yds to the ASU 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+8
5.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 8 yds to the ASU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
5.7%
Bucky Irving run for 9 yds to the ASU 23Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+23
6.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Patrick Herbert for 23 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2MISSED FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:437% → 7%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
6.5%
Shotgun Skattebo,Cam pass incomplete deep middle to Omeire,Troy PENALTY ORE Pass Interference (Jackson,Khyree) 15 yards from ASU25 to ASU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
6.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Troy Omeire for 4 yds to the ASU 44Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
6.6%
Cameron Skattebo run for 2 yds to the ASU 46Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+31
6.5%
Cameron Skattebo pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 31 yds to the ORE 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
6.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 2 yds to the ORE 25Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 12
OPP 25
0
6.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Troy OmeireSimilar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 12
OPP 25
0
6.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Melquan StovallSimilar
Q1 8:51
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+43
7.1%
Dario Longhetto 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5893% → 94%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
7.0%
Bucky Irving run for 7 yds to the ORE 32Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
7.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Patrick Herbert for 6 yds to the ORE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
6.9%
Bucky Irving run for 5 yds to the ORE 43Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+8
6.9%
Jordan James run for 8 yds to the ASU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
6.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Patrick Herbert for 49 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:317% → 7%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
6.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 11 yds to the ASU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
6.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
6.9%
Cameron Skattebo run for 2 yds to the ASU 38Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
6.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
7.1%
Cameron Skattebo punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Evan Williams at the ORE 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 4:5593% → 95%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
6.8%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the ORE 36Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+7
6.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 7 yds to the ORE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
6.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 16 yds to the ASU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
6.7%
Bucky Irving run for 15 yds to the ASU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
6.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 6 yds to the ASU 20Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+4
6.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 4 yds to the ASU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
6.6%
Bucky Irving run for 5 yds to the ASU 11Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 5
OPP 11
-5
6.6%
PENALTY ORE Delay Of Game 5 yards from ASU11 to ASU16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
4.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 16 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:236% → 5%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for no gain to the ASU 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
5.5%
Cameron Skattebo pass incomplete to Melquan StovallSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
5.4%
Cameron Skattebo pass incomplete to Melquan StovallSimilar
Q2 14:37
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
5.4%
Cameron Skattebo punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the ORE 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:5795% → 97%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
4.8%
Bucky Irving run for 3 yds to the ORE 32Similar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+5
4.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 5 yds to the ORE 37Similar
Q2 14:37
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+7
4.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 7 yds to the ORE 44Similar
Q2 14:37
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
5.0%
Bucky Irving run for 2 yds to the ORE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
4.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Solomon DavisSimilar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
4.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 7 yds to the ASU 47Similar
Q2 14:37
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
4.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Terrance FergusonSimilar
Q2 11:07
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+7
4.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 7 yds to the ASU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
4.5%
Bucky Irving run for 5 yds to the ASU 45Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+45
3.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 45 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:353% → 2%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for no gain to the ASU 25Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 4 yds to the ASU 29Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
1.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Jalin ConyersSimilar
Q2 8:05
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
1.8%
Dario Longhetto punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 0:4397% → 98%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
3.2%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the ORE 29Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+71
2.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 71 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10INT
18 plays · 65 yds · 6:091% → 1%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
1.4%
Elijhah Badger run for 3 yds to the ASU 16Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+12
1.3%
Jalin Conyers run for 12 yds to the ASU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
1.4%
Jalin Conyers run for 12 yds to the ASU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
1.4%
Cameron Skattebo run for 4 yds to the ASU 44Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
1.3%
Cameron Skattebo run for 5 yds to the ASU 49Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
1.3%
Elijhah Badger run for 2 yds to the ORE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
1.4%
Cameron Skattebo pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
1.4%
Jalin Conyers run for 2 yds to the ORE 47Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+5
1.3%
Jalin Conyers pass complete to Troy Omeire for 5 yds to the ORE 42Similar
Q2 2:35
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+7
0.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Bryce Pierre for 7 yds to the ORE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
1.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Troy OmeireSimilar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-5
1.1%
PENALTY ASU Delay Of Game 5 yards from ORE35 to ORE40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+14
1.1%
Cameron Skattebo pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 14 yds to the ORE 26Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
0.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:35
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+4
1.0%
Jalin Conyers run for 4 yds to the ORE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
1.0%
Cameron Skattebo pass intercepted Cole Martin return for no gain to the ORE 2Similar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
1.0%
Arizona State Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
7 plays · 98 yds · 0:5698% → 99%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+13
1.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 13 yds to the ORE 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
1.6%
Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the ORE 20Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+20
1.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 20 yds to the ORE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+39
1.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 24 yds to the ASU 36 for a 1ST down Arizona State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the ASU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
1.4%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Tez JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
1.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 5 yds to the ASU 16Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+16
1.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 16 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+25
0.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 25 yds to the ORE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:221% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Bryce Pierre for 3 yds to the ASU 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
1.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Troy Omeire for 7 yds to the ASU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
1.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Troy Omeire for 19 yds to the ORE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
1.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 3 yds to the ORE 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
1.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
0.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q3 12:38
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
0.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Bryce PierreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14INT
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:2499% → 99%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+27
1.0%
Bucky Irving run for 27 yds to the ASU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
0.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 20 yds to the ASU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
0.9%
Bucky Irving run for 2 yds to the ASU 8Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
0.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 3 yds to the ASU 5Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
0.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Nix,Bo pass complete short right to Ferguson,Terrance for 5 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 09:53 PENALTY ORE Pass Interference (Ferguson,Terrance) 15 yards from ASU05 to ASU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
-8
0.8%
Bo Nix sacked by Clayton Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the ASU 28Similar
Q3 9:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 28
0
1.2%
Oregon Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:411% → 0%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.5%
Jalin Conyers run for 7 yds to the ASU 32Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
0.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Kyson Brown for 4 yds to the ASU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
0.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Troy Omeire for 22 yds to the ORE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
0.5%
Kyson Brown run for 8 yds to the ORE 34Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+9
0.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Bryce Pierre for 9 yds to the ORE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
0.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
0.5%
Cameron Skattebo run for 5 yds to the ORE 20Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
0.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Melquan StovallSimilar
Q3 5:33
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
0.4%
Dario Longhetto 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:1399% → 100%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
0.6%
Jordan James run for 15 yds to the ORE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
0.6%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the ORE 43Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
0.6%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the ORE 46Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-5
0.6%
PENALTY ORE False Start (Laloulu,Iapani) 5 yards from ORE46 to ORE41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+19
0.6%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 19 yds to the ASU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
0.6%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the ASU 37Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+5
0.5%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Kyler Kasper for 5 yds to the ASU 32Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 2
OPP 32
0
0.5%
Ty Thompson pass incomplete to Kyler KasperSimilar
Q3 1:19
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+3
0.5%
Ty Thompson run for 3 yds to the ASU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
0.4%
Jordan James run for 6 yds to the ASU 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+4
0.4%
Jordan James run for 4 yds to the ASU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
0.3%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Casey Kelly for 19 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17TD
13 plays · 67 yds · 5:320% → 0%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
0.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 7 yds to the ASU 40Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+5
0.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to George Hart III for 5 yds to the ASU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
0.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Messiah Swinson for 4 yds to the ASU 49Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
0.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Cameron SkatteboSimilar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+4
0.1%
Cameron Skattebo run for 4 yds to the ORE 47Similar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+6
0.1%
Jalin Conyers pass complete to Cameron Skattebo for 6 yds to the ORE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
0.2%
Cameron Skattebo run for 12 yds to the ORE 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
0.2%
Jalin Conyers pass incomplete to Troy OmeireSimilar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
0.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+7
0.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 7 yds to the ORE 22Similar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+7
0.1%
Jalin Conyers pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 7 yds to the ORE 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
0.1%
Melquan Stovall run for 15 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18INT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:17100% → 100%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.2%
Ty Thompson run for 4 yds to the ORE 21Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-5
0.2%
PENALTY ORE False Start (Pickard,Charlie) 5 yards from ORE21 to ORE16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+3
0.2%
Jayden Limar run for 3 yds to the ORE 19Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
0.2%
Ty Thompson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19FG
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:130% → 0%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
0.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Ryan Morgan for 3 yds to the ORE 28Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
0.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Troy OmeireSimilar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+15
0.1%
Cameron Skattebo run for 15 yds to the ORE 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
0.1%
Jalin Conyers run for 3 yds to the ORE 16Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 13
OPP 16
0
0.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 13
OPP 16
0
0.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Jalin ConyersSimilar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 13
OPP 16
+34
0.1%
Dario Longhetto 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20END OF GAME
9 plays · 36 yds · 5:09100% → 100%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.2%
Dante Dowdell run for 8 yds to the ORE 33Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
0.2%
Dante Dowdell run for 4 yds to the ORE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
0.2%
Dante Dowdell run for 4 yds to the ORE 41Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+16
0.2%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Darrian Anderson for 16 yds to the ASU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
0.1%
Jayden Limar run for 10 yds to the ASU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
0.1%
Kneel down by Oregon at ASU36 for loss of 3 yards.Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 13
OPP 36
-2
0.1%
Kneel down by Oregon at ASU38 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 38
-1
0.1%
Kneel down by Oregon at ASU39 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:27
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 16 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
-1.8
TD · Q2 9:40
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 45 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
-1.3
TD · Q2 7:22
Bo Nix pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 71 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
-0.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com