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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreLIB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:10 · Ross James punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Brylan Green at the LIB 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 12:37: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 17 yds for a TD (Nick Brown PAT MISSED) — LIB win probability +0.3 pts (now 8%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:13: Terrance Ferguson 2 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick) — LIB win probability +0.6 pts (now 15%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q2 3:50: Kenyon Sadiq 3 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick) — LIB win probability +1.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ORE +2 timeouts on the defense).
- TD · Q3 11:11: Tez Johnson 24 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick) — LIB win probability +0.5 pts (now 23%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q4 14:13: Bucky Irving 1 Yd Run (Grant Meadors Kick) — LIB win probability +3.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5LIB made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 9:06ORE 4th & 7 at LIB 19, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snapGo for it87.1%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call87.2%77% to makePunt86.7%−0.5average punt
- Q1 5:58LIB 4th & 6 at LIB 37, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snapGo for it14.1%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.2%average punt
- Q1 5:10ORE 4th & 5 at midfield, down 4Close callPunted · 85.5% before the snapGo for it85.5%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 1:17LIB 4th & 2 at LIB 45, up 4Close callPunted · 16.6% before the snapGo for it16.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.5%−0.3average punt
- Q2 11:12LIB 4th & 5 at LIB 30, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snapGo for it18.8%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.9%average punt
- Q2 6:06LIB 4th & 5 at LIB 30, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snapGo for it22.5%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.8%average punt
- Q3 6:40LIB 4th & 5 at ORE 18, up 4Close callWent for it · 39.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call38.3%−0.740% to convertField goal39.0%79% to makePunt27.8%−11.2average punt
- Q3 3:06ORE 4th & 1 at LIB 43, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.2%70% to convertField goal53.3%−5.928% to makePunt54.8%−4.4average punt
- Q4 10:52LIB 4th & 12 at ORE 43, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snapGo for it54.5%−2.124% to convertField goal53.9%−2.728% to makePuntTheir call56.6%average punt
- Q4 8:07ORE 4th & 14 at ORE 35, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snapGo for it36.1%−4.018% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.1%average punt
- Q4 4:00ORE 4th & 1 at LIB 40, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.3%70% to convertField goal30.0%−7.334% to makePunt27.2%−10.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 12:37LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call11.8%97% to makeGo for two11.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartLIBDrive 1TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:127% → 8%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
93.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for a loss of 2 yards to the LIB 23Similar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
93.1%
Oregon Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Casey Rogers) to the ORE 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
92.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 17 yds for a TD (Nick Brown PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2FG9 plays · 60 yds · 3:1393% → 92%
LIBDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 2:549% → 10%
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+12
91.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 12 yds to the LIB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+8
90.6%
Kaidon Salter run for a loss of 6 yards to the LIB 37 Kaidon Salter fumbled, recovered by LIB Billy Lucas Billy Lucas run for 8 yds to the LIB 37Similar
Q1 5:58
4TH & 6
OWN 37
+18
90.4%
Max Morgan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the ORE 30 Liberty Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the ORE 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3491% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 37 yds · 3:4610% → 12%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
90.0%
Aaron Bedgood run for 7 yds to the LIB 15 Liberty Penalty, Offensive Holding (Xavior Gray) to the LIB 8Similar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
89.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 10 yds to the LIB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+4
89.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 4 yds to the LIB 17Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+20
89.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 20 yds to the LIB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
88.2%
Max Morgan punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the ORE 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD7 plays · 82 yds · 3:1688% → 88%
LIBDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2714% → 14%
Q2 11:12
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+12
86.0%
Max Morgan punt for 57 yds , Tez Johnson returns for 12 yds to the ORE 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5286% → 85%
Q2 8:22
3RD & 8
50
+9
84.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jordan James for 9 yds to the LIB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
84.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 21 yds to the LIB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+16
85.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 16 yds to the LIB 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 0
OPP 4
+2
85.5%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Holden, Traeshon, PENALTY LIBERTY pass interference (Williams, Amarian) 2 yards to the LIBERTY2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5418% → 18%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10TD7 plays · 95 yds · 2:0882% → 84%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+50
81.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 50 yds to the LIB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
83.4%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Johnson, Tez, PENALTY LIBERTY pass interference (Bishop, Brandon) 15 yards to the LIBERTY30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11INT9 plays · 41 yds · 2:3220% → 26%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
80.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 11 yds to the LIB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
75.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Quinton Cooley for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+8
75.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 8 yds to the ORE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
73.8%
Kaidon Salter pass intercepted Steve Stephens IV return for no gain to the ORE 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12TD7 plays · 68 yds · 0:5978% → 81%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+40
78.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 40 yds to the LIB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:4376% → 77%
LIBDrive 15DOWNS9 plays · 57 yds · 4:2528% → 35%
OREDrive 16TD13 plays · 82 yds · 7:1867% → 60%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
66.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 16 yds to the ORE 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
64.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 12 yds to the LIB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+12
64.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Patrick Herbert for 12 yds to the LIB 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 32 yds · 3:1549% → 55%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
45.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Billy Lucas for 21 yds to the ORE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 2:3951% → 43%
LIBDrive 19FUMBLE4 plays · 25 yds · 1:5362% → 71%
OREDrive 20END OF GAME9 plays · 39 yds · 5:2449% → 38%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
48.6%
Austin Novosad pass complete to Jurrion Dickey for 7 yds to the LIB 42Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+11
39.7%
Austin Novosad pass complete to Darrian Anderson for 11 yds to the LIB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+12
42.3%
Austin Novosad pass complete to Darrian Anderson for a loss of 6 yards to the LIB 24 lat. to Jayden Limar for 12 yds to the LIB 24Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+18
38.2%
Austin Novosad pass complete to Jayden Limar for 18 yds to the LIB 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+62.4
TD · Q4 14:13
Bucky Irving 1 Yd Run (Grant Meadors Kick)
-3
TD · Q2 3:50
Kenyon Sadiq 3 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)
-1.2