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CAL

California 19 at Oregon 63

ORE
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Justin Williams-Thomas run for 3 yds to the CAL 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:32: Nohl Williams 9 Yd Fumble Return (Mateen Bhaghani Kick) — CAL win probability +1.1 pts (now 6%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:39: Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 14 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +2.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:06: Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 7 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:47: Jaydn Ott run for 20 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — CAL win probability +3.8 pts (now 6%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:30: Bucky Irving run for 6 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +2.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 2 of 4CAL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 6:07CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:25ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:39CAL 4th & 11 at ORE 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:35ORE 4th & 9 at CAL 35, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:28CAL 4th & 3 at ORE 10, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.7%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    9.4%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:18CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 24, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:09CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 29, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:31ORE 4th & 2 at ORE 33, up 16
    Close callPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:37CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 6, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:28CAL 4th & 14 at CAL 21, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:53CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 41, down 37
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:53ORE 4th & 3 at CAL 34, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 9 of 9CAL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 7:00ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:40ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:32CAL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:21ORE Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:39ORE Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:06ORE Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:47CAL Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:30ORE Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:11ORE Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:51ORE Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:26ORE Touchdown, up 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
96.3%
Bo Nix pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2INT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:334% → 4%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
96.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the ORE 37Similar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+6
96.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the ORE 31Similar
Q1 14:48
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+4
96.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the ORE 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
96.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the ORE 26Similar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+2
96.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 2 yds to the ORE 24Similar
Q1 14:48
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
96.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:48
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+5
96.3%
BHAGHANI, Mateen field goal attempt from 41 yards BLOCKED by JACKSON, Khyree recovered by ORE FLORENCE, Jahlil at ORE32, returned by FLORENCE, Jahlil 68 yards to the CAL0 [kick was spotted at ORE31]. PENALTY ORE Offsides on JACKSON, Khyree enforced 5 yards from the ORE24 to the ORE19. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:48
4TH & 2
OPP 19
0
96.3%
Oregon Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Yards) to the ORE 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
95.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 5:1596% → 95%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
95.8%
Bucky Irving run for no gain to the ORE 14Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+7
95.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 7 yds to the ORE 21Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+12
95.8%
Bucky Irving run for 12 yds to the ORE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
95.9%
Bucky Irving run for 15 yds to the ORE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
95.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 8
50
0
95.9%
Jordan James run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 8
50
+15
95.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 15 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
95.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 5 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+9
95.9%
Bucky Irving run for 9 yds to the CAL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-15
95.9%
Oregon Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the CAL 36Similar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 25
OPP 36
+3
95.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 3 yds to the CAL 33Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 22
OPP 33
-15
95.9%
Oregon Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Steven Jones) to the CAL 48Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 37
OPP 48
+48
95.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 48 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:355% → 5%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
95.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the CAL 38Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-1
95.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 37Similar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
95.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
95.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the ORE 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:4295% → 95%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
95.2%
Jordan James run for 16 yds to the ORE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
95.3%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
95.2%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
95.2%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:25
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
95.0%
Ross James punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the CAL 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · -14 yds · 0:345% → 5%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
95.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 7 yds to the CAL 22Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 3
OWN 22
0
95.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 3
OWN 22
-21
95.0%
Fernando Mendoza sacked for a loss of 21 yards to the CAL 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.0%
Bo Nix run for 1 yd for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 3:014% → 5%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
95.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 16 yds to the CAL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
95.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the CAL 45Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+30
95.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 30 yds to the ORE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
95.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the ORE 24Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
95.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for no gain to the ORE 24Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 9
OPP 24
-2
95.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for a loss of 2 yards to the ORE 26Similar
Q1 1:39
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+43
94.8%
Mateen Bhaghani 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · -16 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.6%
Nohl Williams 9 Yd Fumble Return (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10MISSED FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 2:5294% → 93%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
93.6%
Jordan James run for 7 yds to the ORE 29Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 3
OWN 29
0
93.6%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:52
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+15
93.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 15 yds to the ORE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
93.8%
Bucky Irving run for 5 yds to the ORE 49Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
93.8%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+15
93.4%
California Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jaydn Ott) to the CAL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
93.6%
IRVING, Bucky rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the CAL28 (ANTZOULATOS, Blake). PENALTY ORE Holding on CONERLY JR., Josh enforced 10 yards from the CAL36 to the CAL46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 46
+14
93.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 14 yds to the CAL 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
93.6%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-3
93.5%
Bo Nix run for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 35Similar
Q2 13:35
4TH & 9
OPP 35
+53
92.8%
Camden Lewis 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:077% → 9%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
92.6%
Jaivian Thomas run for 9 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+15
92.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 15 yds to the ORE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+24
92.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 24 yds to the ORE 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
91.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+5
92.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the ORE 12Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+2
92.2%
Fernando Mendoza run for 2 yds to the ORE 10Similar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+27
91.4%
Mateen Bhaghani 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 6:0192% → 93%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
91.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 3 yds to the ORE 29Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+11
91.9%
Bucky Irving run for 11 yds to the ORE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
92.2%
Bucky Irving run for 6 yds to the ORE 46Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+16
92.3%
Bucky Irving run for 16 yds to the CAL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
92.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 7 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+1
92.6%
Bucky Irving run for 1 yd to the CAL 30Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+2
92.3%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the CAL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
92.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 17 yds to the CAL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
92.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 4 yds to the CAL 7Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 6
OPP 7
-4
92.6%
Bucky Irving run for a loss of 4 yards to the CAL 5 Bucky Irving fumbled, recovered by ORE Bucky Irving [NH] IRVING, Bucky rush to the right for a loss of 4 yards, IRVING, Bucky fumbled at CAL11 , recovered by ORE IRVING, Bucky at the CAL11, returned 6 yards to the CAL5 (JERNIGAN, Myles).Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+3
92.4%
NIX, Bo pass short to the left incomplete intended for BRYANT JR., Gary thrown to the CAL0. PENALTY CAL Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Nohl enforced at the spot of the foul for 3 yards to the CAL2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
92.6%
Bucky Irving run for 1 yd to the CAL 1Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.3%
Bo Nix run for 1 yd for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:597% → 7%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
92.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the CAL 20Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+4
92.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the CAL 24Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
92.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
93.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:3993% → 95%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
92.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 20 yds to the CAL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
93.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 15 yds to the CAL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
93.2%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the CAL 26Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+2
93.2%
Bucky Irving run for 2 yds to the CAL 24Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+10
92.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 10 yds to the CAL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
95.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 14 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:306% → 4%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 4 yds to the CAL 29Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
94.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
94.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 39 ydsSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
95.8%
IRVING, Bucky rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the CAL15 (WILLIAMS, Miles;JOHNSON, Brett). PENALTY ORE Holding on JONES, Steven enforced 10 yards from the CAL21 to the CAL31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16TD
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:0396% → 98%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 20
OPP 31
+12
95.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 12 yds to the CAL 19Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+7
95.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 7 yds to the CAL 12Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+5
94.8%
Bucky Irving run for 5 yds to the CAL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
94.8%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 7 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
97.4%
Jaivian Thomas run for 6 yds to the CAL 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:132% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the CAL 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
97.7%
Oregon Penalty, Illegal use of the hands on DORLUS, Brandon enforced (Brandon Dorlus) to the ORE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
97.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+26
97.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 26 yds to the ORE 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
97.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
93.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 20 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:1095% → 95%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.2%
Bucky Irving run for no gain to the ORE 25Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 7 yds to the ORE 32Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
95.0%
Bucky Irving run for 1 yd to the ORE 33Similar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
95.0%
Ross James punt for 64 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:545% → 5%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
94.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the CAL 6Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 7
OWN 6
0
95.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 7
OWN 6
0
95.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:37
4TH & 7
OWN 6
0
95.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 2:0796% → 98%
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
95.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 2 yds to the CAL 47Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+15
95.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 15 yds to the CAL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+22
95.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 22 yds to the CAL 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
95.8%
Bucky Irving run for 4 yds to the CAL 6Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.4%
Bucky Irving run for 6 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22FUMBLE
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:252% → 2%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 2 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
98.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
98.3%
Fernando Mendoza run for 7 yds to the CAL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
98.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
98.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 11 yds to the CAL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
98.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the ORE 48Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+6
98.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the ORE 42Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+3
98.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the ORE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
98.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Monroe Young for 13 yds to the ORE 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+21
98.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 21 yds to the ORE 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
98.4%
Jaivian Thomas run for 4 yds to the ORE 1 Jaivian Thomas fumbled, recovered by ORE Evan Williams [NHSG] THOMAS, Jaivian rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards, THOMAS, Jaivian fumbled at ORE6 , recovered by ORE WILLIAMS, Evan at the ORE1, returned 0 yards to the ORE1, End of Play, clock 04:05.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23TD
11 plays · 99 yds · 4:5499% → 100%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+2
98.5%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the ORE 3Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
98.5%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+22
98.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jordan James for 22 yds to the ORE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.6%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the ORE 28Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-17
98.6%
NIX, Bo pass to the right complete for 17 yards to IRVING, Bucky caught at the ORE20 and advanced to the ORE45 (MOORE, Kaylin). PENALTY ORE Unsportsmanlike Conduct on POWERS-JOHNSON, Jackson enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards from the ORE28 to the ORE14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+32
98.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 32 yds to the ORE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
98.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 12 yds to the CAL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+31
98.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 31 yds to the CAL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-7
99.1%
Bucky Irving run for a loss of 7 yards to the CAL 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 18
+14
99.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 14 yds to the CAL 4Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 4 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-6
99.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for a loss of 6 yards Trond Grizzell fumbled, recovered by CAL Trond Grizzell [NHSG] MENDOZA, Fernando pass up the middle complete for -6 yards to GRIZZELL, Trond caught at the CAL25, GRIZZELL, Trond fumbled at CAL23 forced by HILL, Jamal, recovered by CAL GRIZZELL, Trond at the CAL21, returned 0 yards to the CAL21, End of Play.Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
99.9%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 14 yds to the CAL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Jordan James run for no gain to the CAL 42Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+8
99.9%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Jordan James for 8 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q4 12:28
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+18
99.9%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 18 yds to the CAL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.9%
Jordan James run for 16 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 11 yds to the CAL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the CAL 40Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+1
99.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 1 yd to the CAL 41Similar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 27TD
11 plays · 41 yds · 5:27100% → 100%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
99.9%
Jayden Limar run for 1 yd to the CAL 40Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Ty Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+6
99.9%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Jayden Limar for 6 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+6
99.9%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 6 yds to the CAL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
99.9%
Dante Dowdell run for 10 yds to the CAL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
99.9%
DOWDELL, Dante rush to the left for a gain of 13 yards to the CAL5 (RUTCHENA, Nate). PENALTY ORE Holding on SILVA, George enforced 10 yards from the CAL18 to the CAL28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 20
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Ty Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 20
OPP 28
+21
99.9%
Jayden Limar run for 21 yds to the CAL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
99.9%
Jayden Limar run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 9Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
99.9%
Dante Dowdell run for 3 yds to the CAL 6Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
100.0%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 6 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:180% → 0%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
100.0%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 4 yds to the CAL 19Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+2
100.0%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 2 yds to the CAL 21Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 4
OWN 21
-5
100.0%
California Penalty, Delay Of Game (Fernando Mendoza) to the CAL 16Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+3
100.0%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 3 yds to the CAL 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:47
Jaydn Ott run for 20 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-3.8
TD · Q2 0:06
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 7 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
+3
TD · Q3 8:30
Bucky Irving run for 6 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
+2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com