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USC

USC 27 at Oregon 36

ORE
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:23 · Luke Dunne punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Pregame prior+12.2Home team on offense+20.0Score differential+9.6Garbage-time factor+10.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7Time remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:37: MarShawn Lloyd run for 5 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +3.1 pts (now 18%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:49: Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 15 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ORE win probability +4.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:12: Caleb Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +8.8 pts (now 19%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:17: Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 21 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +6.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:27: Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 9 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +4.2 pts (now 5%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:49USC 4th & 17 at USC 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:57USC 4th & 14 at midfield, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:18USC 4th & 16 at ORE 49, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:59ORE 4th & 10 at USC 15, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    83.8%−3.6
    average punt
  5. Q3 4:13USC 4th & 8 at USC 28, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:23ORE 4th & 9 at ORE 34, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  7. Q4 11:27USC 4th & 9 at ORE 9, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    -0.5%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q4 6:27ORE 4th & 13 at USC 23, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:44ORE 4th & 7 at USC 31, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    92.2%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    91.1%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 5USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:00ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:37USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:11ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    83.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:49ORE Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:12USC Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:17ORE Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:55ORE Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:27USC Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.5%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:44USC Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.3%−1.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:1115% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.3%
MarShawn Lloyd run for no gain to the USC 25Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
84.9%
WILLIAMS, Caleb sacked for a loss of 3 yards at the USC22 (DORLUS, Brandon). PENALTY ORE Face mask on FLORENCE, Jahlil enforced 15 yards from the USC25 to the USC40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
84.9%
Mario Williams pass complete to Caleb Williams for 15 yds to the ORE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
84.9%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the ORE 44Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
84.9%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Justin Dedich) declinedSimilar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-8
84.9%
Caleb Williams sacked by Brandon Dorlus for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 48Similar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 17
OWN 48
0
84.5%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the ORE 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2TD
2 plays · 83 yds · 0:4984% → 85%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
84.4%
Bucky Irving run for 6 yds to the ORE 23Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+77
85.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 77 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 5:2315% → 18%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.9%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
84.9%
Austin Jones run for 10 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
84.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 8 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+4
84.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 4 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-9
84.7%
Caleb Williams sacked by Teitum Tuioti for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 38Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 19
OWN 38
+44
84.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for 44 yds to the ORE 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
84.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for no gain to the ORE 18Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
84.6%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 5 yds to the ORE 13Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+8
84.7%
Caleb Williams run for 8 yds to the ORE 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
81.6%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 5 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 1:2183% → 84%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-8
82.5%
Bucky Irving run for a loss of 8 yards to the ORE 11Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 18
OWN 11
+5
82.4%
Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the ORE 16Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 13
OWN 16
+84
84.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 84 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1416% → 16%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
83.9%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 19 yds to the ORE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
83.3%
MarShawn Lloyd run for no gain to the ORE 46Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-10
83.4%
LLOYD, MarShawn rush to the left for a gain of 13 yards to the ORE33 (STEPHENS IV, Steve;WILLIAMS, Evan). PENALTY USC Holding on MONHEIM, Jonah enforced 10 yards from the ORE46 to the USC44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 20
OWN 44
+6
83.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Duce Robinson for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 14
50
0
84.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 14
50
0
84.0%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the ORE 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:0884% → 89%
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
83.9%
Bucky Irving run for 12 yds to the ORE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
84.1%
Bucky Irving run for 9 yds to the ORE 46Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
84.5%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
84.1%
Jordan James run for no gain to the ORE 46Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+5
83.7%
QB Keeper NIX, Bo rush up the middle for no gain to the ORE46 (COBB, Mason;MUHAMMAD, Jamil). PENALTY USC Offsides on BYRD, Solomon enforced 5 yards from the ORE46 to the USC49 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
84.3%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+13
84.2%
Bucky Irving run for 13 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
84.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 5 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+7
84.5%
Bucky Irving run for 7 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
84.5%
Bucky Irving run for 4 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+3
84.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 3 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+7
84.2%
Bucky Irving run for 7 yds to the USC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
84.4%
Oregon Penalty, False Start (Jackson Powers-Johnson) to the USC 15Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
0
84.4%
Bucky Irving pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
88.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 15 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 42 yds · 5:2313% → 12%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
87.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 13 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
86.8%
Oregon Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jahlil Florence) to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
86.6%
Caleb Williams run for no gain to the USC 37Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
86.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+10
86.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 10 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
86.3%
Austin Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 46Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+11
86.5%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 11 yds to the ORE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-13
86.1%
Caleb Williams sacked for a loss of 13 yards to the USC 44Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 23
OWN 44
+2
86.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 2 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 21
OWN 46
+5
86.8%
WILLIAMS, Caleb pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ROBINSON, Duce thrown to the ORE21. PENALTY ORE Offsides on AUMAVAE, Popo enforced 5 yards from the USC46 to the ORE49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 16
OPP 49
0
86.8%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 16
OPP 49
0
87.9%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8FG
11 plays · 84 yds · 3:1988% → 91%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
88.4%
run for 2 yds to the ORE 3 fumbled, recovered by ORE Jordan James [NHSG] ORE rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards, fumbled at ORE0 , recovered by ORE JAMES, Jordan at the ORE3, returned 0 yards to the ORE3, End of Play.Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+8
88.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 8 yds to the ORE 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
88.5%
Jordan James run for 9 yds to the ORE 20Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+2
88.6%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the ORE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+63
88.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 63 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
89.2%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
89.2%
Bucky Irving run for 3 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 7
OPP 12
-10
89.0%
NIX, Bo pass short up the middle complete for 10 yards to IRVING, Bucky caught at the USC10 and advanced to the USC2 (HEIGHT, Romello;CURTIS, Tackett). PENALTY ORE Holding on CONERLY JR., Josh enforced 10 yards from the USC12 to the USC22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 17
OPP 22
+7
88.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 7 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
88.4%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
90.9%
Camden Lewis 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4711% → 19%
Q2 1:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
89.4%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
89.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 9 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+59
89.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 59 yds to the ORE 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
87.6%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the ORE 2Similar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.8%
Caleb Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
85.9%
[NHSG] Kneel down by ORE at ORE16 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 6:4385% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
85.1%
Bucky Irving run for 3 yds to the ORE 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-5
85.1%
Oregon Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ORE 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+6
85.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 6 yds to the ORE 19Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+7
84.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 7 yds to the ORE 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
85.3%
Bucky Irving run for 7 yds to the ORE 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+3
85.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 3 yds to the ORE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
85.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 1 yd to the ORE 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+16
85.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 16 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
86.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 7 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+5
86.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 5 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
86.6%
Jordan James run for 4 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+5
86.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 5 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+5
86.0%
JAMES, Jordan rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the USC23 (WILLIAMS, Max). PENALTY USC Offsides on ALEXANDER, Bear enforced 5 yards from the USC26 to the USC21 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
92.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 21 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:5910% → 8%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
90.5%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 2 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
90.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+10
90.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 10 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
90.4%
MarShawn Lloyd run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 24Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+6
90.6%
Caleb Williams run for 6 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+3
90.3%
Caleb Williams run for 3 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 3
OWN 33
-5
90.4%
USC Penalty, Delay Of Game (Max Williams) to the USC 28Similar
Q3 4:13
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
92.3%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5094% → 94%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
94.2%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
94.1%
Bucky Irving run for 1 yd to the ORE 34Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
94.0%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
93.9%
Luke Dunne punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14FUMBLE
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:578% → 8%
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
92.1%
Zachariah Branch run for 21 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
91.2%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
91.4%
WILLIAMS, Caleb pass to the right incomplete intended for HUDSON, Kyron thrown to the ORE39; QB hurried by TUIOTI, Teitum. PENALTY ORE Offsides on UIAGALELEI, Matayo enforced 5 yards from the USC46 to the ORE49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-3
92.3%
Austin Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 48 Austin Jones fumbled, recovered by ORE Evan Williams [NHSG] JONES, Austin rush up the middle for a loss of 3 yards, JONES, Austin fumbled at USC48 , recovered by ORE WILLIAMS, Evan at the USC48, returned 0 yards to the USC48, End of Play, clock 02:26.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15TD
6 plays · 48 yds · 2:3195% → 99%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
95.1%
Jordan James run for 6 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+4
95.1%
Jordan James run for 4 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
95.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jordan James for 13 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
95.1%
Oregon Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 30Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+11
95.5%
Bucky Irving run for 11 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+19
98.6%
Bucky Irving run for 19 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:281% → 5%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 9 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
98.5%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-3
98.8%
MarShawn Lloyd run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 31Similar
Q4 13:21
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+15
98.8%
WILLIAMS, Caleb pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WASHINGTON, Tahj thrown to the ORE30, clock 13:21. PENALTY ORE Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Tysheem enforced 15 yards to the USC46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.8%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
98.8%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the ORE 49Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+40
98.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Duce Robinson for 40 yds to the ORE 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
98.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
98.8%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
94.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 9 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17MISSED FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 5:0097% → 97%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.6%
Bucky Irving run for 4 yds to the ORE 29Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
96.7%
USC Penalty, Delay Of Game (5 Yards) to the ORE 34Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
96.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 7 yds to the ORE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
96.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 18 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
96.9%
JAMES, Jordan rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the USC36 (FEGANS, Tre'Quon;LEE, Shane). PENALTY ORE Holding on JONES, Steven enforced 10 yards from the USC41 to the ORE49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+9
96.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 9 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+22
96.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 22 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
97.0%
NIX, Bo pass up the middle incomplete intended for FRANKLIN, Troy broken up by JACKSON, Domani at the USC5. PENALTY ORE Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on JONES, Steven enforced 5 yards from the USC20 to the USC25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+8
97.0%
Bucky Irving run for 8 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-5
97.0%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 23 fumbled, recovered by ORE Bucky Irving [NHSG] ORE rush up the middle for a loss of 5 yards, fumbled at USC17 , recovered by ORE IRVING, Bucky at the USC22, returned -1 yard to the USC23 (SULLIVAN, Jack).Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 13
OPP 23
0
96.8%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 13
OPP 23
+41
97.4%
Camden Lewis 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:433% → 7%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+37
96.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 37 yds to the ORE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
96.3%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
96.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 5 yds to the ORE 35Similar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
95.9%
WILLIAMS, Caleb pass to the right complete for 13 yards to ROBINSON, Duce caught at the ORE21 and advanced to the ORE21 (BRIDGES, Trikweze), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. PENALTY USC Holding on KINGSTON, Jarrett ORE Holding on JOHNSON, Tysheem , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+10
96.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 10 yds to the ORE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
95.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 12 yds to the ORE 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
93.0%
Austin Jones run for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19END OF GAME
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:4495% → 97%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
94.7%
Bucky Irving run for 6 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+4
94.8%
Bucky Irving run for 4 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
95.0%
Jordan James run for no gain to the USC 34Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
94.9%
Bucky Irving run for 3 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
94.5%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+10
93.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 10 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
96.9%
[NHSG] Kneel down by ORE at USC23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:12
Caleb Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)
-8.8
TD · Q3 8:17
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 21 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q4 11:27
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 9 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)
-4.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com