Liberty

Profile vs. FBS, 2023

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.3598th
  Defense+0.0952nd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense53.4%98th
  Defense43.6%32nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2226th
  Defense+1.3029th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2898th
  Defense+0.1429th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.5898th
  Defense+0.1961st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense58.0%98th
  Defense49.8%23rd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense38.4%95th
  Defense29.8%55th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.7399th
  Defense3.1928th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense13.1%90th
  Defense17.2%51st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense8.6%99th
  Defense19.1%86th

Percentiles among the 133 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2023

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Liberty allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   BGSU
2. W
   NMSU
3. W
   BUF
4. W
   FIU
5. W
   SHSU
6. W
   JXST
7. W
   MTSU
8. W
   WKU
9. W
   LT
10. W
    ODU
11. W
    MASS
12. W
    UTEP
13. W
    NMSU
14. L
    ORE

Bars above the line: better than expected for Liberty.

Players, 2023

1. Kaidon SalterQB370 plays · +0.293 pts/play · 17th of 250 QBs
   2.03WAR1.27 to 2.78
2. Quinton CooleyRB168 plays · +0.146 pts/play · 21st of 383 RBs
   0.46WAR0.30 to 0.60
3. CJ DanielsWR53 plays · +0.246 pts/play · 41st of 457 WRs
   0.24WAR0.11 to 0.41
4. Billy LucasRB90 plays · +0.123 pts/play · 127th of 383 RBs
   0.21WAR0.14 to 0.27
5. Treon SibleyWR24 plays · +0.317 pts/play · 121st of 457 WRs
   0.14WAR0.09 to 0.20
6. Bentley HanshawTE16 plays · +0.322 pts/play · 55th of 212 TEs
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.13
7. Aaron BedgoodWR43 plays · +0.082 pts/play · 243rd of 457 WRs
   0.07WAR0.01 to 0.13
8. Noah FrithWR16 plays · +0.118 pts/play · 323rd of 457 WRs
   0.04WAR0.01 to 0.06

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Liberty's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2023

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  330330126th of 130Roster talent: 330, 126th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  131131102nd of 130Recruiting: 131, 102nd of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  45%45%76th of 128Returning production: 45%, 76th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +8.0+8.033rd of 130SP+ rating: +8.0, 33rd of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2023

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Liberty's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.02 of the 0.06 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs SHSUQ4 7:18 4th & 3 at SHSU 22, up 5Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
2. vs MTSUQ4 5:39 4th & 1 at LIB 11, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
3. vs MTSUQ4 11:29 4th & 3 at LIB 37, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
4. at OREQ3 6:40 4th & 5 at ORE 18, up 4Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.7 pts
5. vs MTSUQ2 3:20 4th & 5 at MTSU 41, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
6. at OREQ1 1:17 4th & 2 at LIB 45, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
7. vs BGSUQ2 5:48 4th & 4 at BGSU 19, up 21Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
8. vs NMSUQ4 5:28 4th & 3 at LIB 29, up 16Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2023

8th of 133 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Liberty's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   BGSU
2. W

   NMSU
3. W

   BUF
4. W

   FIU
5. W

   SHSU
6. W

   JXST
7. W

   MTSU
8. W

   WKU
9. W

   LT
10. W

    ODU
11. W

    MASS
12. W

    UTEP
13. W

    NMSU
14. L

    ORE

What moved it, 2023

Every game starts at Liberty's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+3.80
• Possession & field position−0.04
• Clock+0.06
• Timeouts+0.01
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.42

Game by game

• BGSUW 34-24 vs BGSU75% → 98%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +29, Clock −1
• NMSUW 33-17 vs NMSU68% → 100%Before kickoff +18 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +33, Clock −1
• BUFW 55-27 at BUF54% → 100%Before kickoff +4 · On the field +45: Scoreboard +48, Clock +1
• FIUW 38-6 at FIU72% → 100%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +33, Clock +1
• SHSUW 21-16 vs SHSU90% → 95%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +15, Timeouts +1
• JXSTW 31-13 at JXST72% → 99%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +35, Clock +2
• MTSUW 42-35 vs MTSU85% → 98%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +13: Scoreboard +19, Timeouts +1
• WKUW 42-29 at WKU61% → 99%Before kickoff +11 · On the field +37: Scoreboard +44, Clock +2
• LTW 56-30 vs LT83% → 100%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +20
• ODUW 38-10 vs ODU85% → 100%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +18, Timeouts +1
• MASSW 49-25 vs MASS95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +8
• UTEPW 42-28 at UTEP87% → 99%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +22, Clock +1
• NMSUW 49-35 vs NMSU72% → 99%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +33, Timeouts −1
• OREL 6-45 at ORE7% → 62%Before kickoff −43 · On the field +56: Scoreboard +21, Possession & field position −4

Points of win probability, from Liberty's side.

Closest call

LIB 42-24 MASS (2022) - Liberty dropped to a 1.1% win probability before pulling it out.