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LIB

Liberty 42 at Western Kentucky 29

WKU
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 24, 2023 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · J. Bennett takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:51: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Victor Venn for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +13.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:21: Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +12.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:24: Austin Reed pass complete to Elijah Young for 43 yds for a TD Liberty Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jerome Jolly Jr.) declined (Two-Point Conversion failed) — WKU win probability +9.1 pts (now 18%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:40: Aaron Bedgood run for 6 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +7.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:32: Austin Reed pass complete to River Helms for 63 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — WKU win probability +9.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6LIB made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 4:22WKU 4th & 8 at LIB 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:22LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.1%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:31LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:39WKU 4th & 4 at LIB 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.9%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−2.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:39LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.3%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:50WKU 4th & 10 at LIB 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−5.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:13LIB 4th & 12 at LIB 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−1.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:21LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:06WKU 4th & 3 at WKU 42, down 4
    Close callPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:23WKU 4th & 11 at midfield, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:18LIB 4th & 5 at WKU 27, up 13
    Close callWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    94.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    90.4%−4.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:13WKU 4th & 13 at LIB 21, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4LIB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 8:55WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:14LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:32LIB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:51LIB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:21LIB Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:24WKU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    14.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:40LIB Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:32WKU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    8.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.9%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:18LIB Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:13WKU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.6%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:0539% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
38.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Elijah Young for 3 yds to the WKU 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
38.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 5 yds to the WKU 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
38.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Elijah Young for 9 yds to the WKU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+27
38.5%
Elijah Young run for 27 yds to the LIB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
38.5%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin SmithSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
38.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Elijah Young for 3 yds to the LIB 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+11
38.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 11 yds to the LIB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
38.5%
Austin Reed run for 3 yds to the LIB 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+3
38.5%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the LIB 11Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+6
38.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 6 yds to the LIB 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
38.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to River Helms for 1 yd to the LIB 6Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
38.5%
Elijah Young run for 4 yds to the LIB 2Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
43.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4157% → 60%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the LIB 31Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+18
42.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 18 yds to the LIB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
42.3%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the WKU 46Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
42.2%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Aaron BedgoodSimilar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+8
42.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 8 yds to the WKU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
42.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 18 yds to the WKU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
40.1%
Kaidon Salter run for 20 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:5242% → 42%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
41.6%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 1 yd to the WKU 36Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
41.6%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Xavier ShawSimilar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+15
41.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 15 yds to the LIB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
42.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 2 yds to the LIB 47Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
42.4%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
42.1%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
41.9%
Tom Ellard punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:5158% → 56%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
42.1%
Quinton Cooley run for 7 yds to the LIB 15Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+2
41.9%
Aaron Bedgood run for 2 yds to the LIB 17Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 1
OWN 17
0
42.2%
Quinton Cooley run for no gain to the LIB 17Similar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+2
42.6%
Kaidon Salter run for 2 yds to the LIB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
41.9%
Quinton Cooley run for no gain to the LIB 19Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+7
41.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 7 yds to the LIB 26Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 3
OWN 26
0
42.0%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Treon SibleySimilar
Q1 0:31
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
43.6%
Max Morgan punt for 37 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 2:5244% → 46%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
44.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 4 yds to the WKU 41Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+7
45.1%
Elijah Young run for 7 yds to the WKU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
45.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to River Helms for 14 yds to the LIB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
45.5%
Elijah Young run for 12 yds to the LIB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
45.8%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 12 yds to the LIB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
45.8%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 2 yds to the LIB 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+4
45.8%
Elijah Young run for 4 yds to the LIB 8Similar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
46.1%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Elijah YoungSimilar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+26
46.2%
Lucas Carneiro 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0754% → 62%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
45.9%
Billy Lucas run for 6 yds to the LIB 31Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-8
45.1%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Sebastian Benjamin for a loss of 8 yards to the LIB 23Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+11
46.8%
Kaidon Salter run for 11 yds to the LIB 34Similar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
46.2%
Kaidon Salter run for 5 yds to the LIB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
44.7%
Billy Lucas run for 5 yds to the LIB 44Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+4
44.3%
Billy Lucas run for 4 yds to the LIB 48Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
44.3%
Quinton Cooley run for no gain to the LIB 48Similar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+5
45.0%
PENALTY WKU Offside (Key,Aaron) 5 yards from LIB48 to WKU47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
38.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 47 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7MISSED FG
15 plays · 57 yds · 5:4241% → 40%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
41.0%
Markese Stepp run for 7 yds to the WKU 32Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+14
42.5%
Markese Stepp run for 14 yds to the WKU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
43.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass complete short left to Corley,Malachi for 10 yards to the LIB44 (Green,Brylan) PENALTY WKU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Leslie,Quantavious) 5 yards from WKU46 to WKU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+3
41.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 3 yds to the WKU 44Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+15
41.8%
Liberty Penalty, Targeting (15 Yards) to the LIB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
44.6%
Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the LIB 31Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+7
44.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 7 yds to the LIB 24Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+6
42.2%
Markese Stepp run for 6 yds to the LIB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
43.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass incomplete short right to Helms,River PENALTY WKU Illegal Formation (Jackson,Marshall) 5 yards from LIB18 to LIB23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:58
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+2
43.0%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the LIB 21Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 13
OPP 21
0
42.9%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Easton MesserSimilar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+3
40.5%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the LIB 18Similar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+36
39.8%
Lucas Carneiro 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:3762% → 59%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
38.2%
Kaidon Salter run for 12 yds to the LIB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
37.3%
Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the LIB 35Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+14
37.1%
Kaidon Salter run for 24 yds to the WKU 41 Liberty Penalty, Offensive Holding (Austin Henderson) to the LIB 30Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
38.4%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 12
OWN 30
0
39.3%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Treon SibleySimilar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
40.9%
Max Morgan punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9INT
4 plays · 31 yds · 0:2940% → 44%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
39.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 12 yds to the LIB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
41.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 19 yds to the LIB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
43.8%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin SmithSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
43.8%
Austin Reed pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
38.6%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the LIB 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3961% → 59%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.3%
Aaron Bedgood run for no gain to the LIB 25 Aaron Bedgood fumbled, recovered by LIB Aaron BedgoodSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 3 yds to the LIB 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
40.3%
Kaidon Salter run for 4 yds to the LIB 32Similar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
41.0%
Max Morgan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1541% → 40%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
41.3%
Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the WKU 37Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
41.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 5 yds to the WKU 42Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
42.8%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Easton MesserSimilar
Q3 12:06
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+6
40.1%
Tom Ellard punt for 47 yds , Brylan Green returns for 6 yds to the LIB 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 4:1560% → 78%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
40.0%
Quinton Cooley run for 12 yds to the LIB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
39.7%
Aaron Bedgood run for 17 yds to the LIB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
37.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 9 yds to the WKU 45Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+6
36.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the WKU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
37.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the WKU 36Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+8
37.0%
Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the WKU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
35.9%
Aaron Bedgood run for 9 yds to the WKU 19Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+10
35.9%
Aaron Bedgood run for 10 yds to the WKU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
22.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Victor Venn for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:2825% → 22%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
24.6%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 5 yds to the WKU 30Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
25.2%
Austin Reed run for 6 yds to the WKU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
25.4%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for no gain to the WKU 36Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
25.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 15 yds to the LIB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
27.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Young,Elijah rush right for 7 yards gain to the LIB42 (Reese,Quinton) PENALTY WKU Holding (Murphy,Vincent) 10 yards from LIB49 to WKU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+4
25.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to L.T. Sanders for 4 yds to the WKU 45Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 16
OWN 45
+5
25.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to L.T. Sanders for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 11
50
0
25.5%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to K.D. HutchinsonSimilar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 11
50
0
21.5%
Tom Ellard punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 5:0277% → 95%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
23.0%
Billy Lucas run for 8 yds to the LIB 28Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
22.4%
Billy Lucas run for 4 yds to the LIB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
22.6%
Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the LIB 35Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+15
22.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
50
+13
20.8%
Billy Lucas run for 13 yds to the WKU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
20.8%
Aaron Bedgood run for 8 yds to the WKU 29Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+12
20.2%
Aaron Bedgood run for 12 yds to the WKU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
17.0%
Kaidon Salter run for 13 yds to the WKU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
17.0%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the WKU 2Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:578% → 18%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
8.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 4 yds to the WKU 29Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
8.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 13 yds to the WKU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-7
8.9%
Austin Reed sacked by Kendy Charles for a loss of 7 yards to the WKU 35Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 17
OWN 35
0
8.1%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Blue SmithSimilar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 17
OWN 35
+18
8.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 18 yds to the LIB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
9.2%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Jimmy HolidaySimilar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
9.2%
Malachi Corley run for 4 yds to the LIB 43Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+43
18.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Elijah Young for 43 yds for a TD Liberty Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jerome Jolly Jr.) declined (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4489% → 97%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
11.3%
Western Kentucky Penalty, Personal Foul (Sebastian Benjamin) to the LIB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
10.5%
Aaron Bedgood run for 4 yds to the LIB 45Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+8
10.3%
Billy Lucas run for 8 yds to the WKU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+41
10.2%
Kaidon Salter run for 34 yds to the WKU 13 for a 1ST down Western Kentucky Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kendrick Simpkins) to the WKU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
9.7%
Billy Lucas run for no gain to the WKU 6Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
2.5%
Aaron Bedgood run for 6 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
2.7%
PENALTY LIB UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Salter,Kaidon) 15 yards from LIB35 to LIB20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
12.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to River Helms for 63 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 19TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:1493% → 99%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
6.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the LIB 27Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
6.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the LIB 32Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+17
6.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 17 yds to the LIB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
5.5%
Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the WKU 43Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+11
5.3%
Quinton Cooley run for 11 yds to the WKU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
5.3%
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the WKU 28Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+1
5.3%
Billy Lucas run for 1 yd to the WKU 27Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
4.1%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+27
0.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 27 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:001% → 5%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+19
0.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 19 yds to the WKU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
0.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass incomplete deep left to Helms,River PENALTY LIB Pass Interference (Bishop,Brandon) 15 yards from WKU41 to LIB44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+26
1.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 26 yds to the LIB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
1.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass incomplete short right to Corley,Malachi PENALTY WKU Holding (Leslie,Quantavious) 10 yards from LIB18 to LIB28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 20
OPP 28
0
1.1%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Blue SmithSimilar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 20
OPP 28
0
1.1%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Markese SteppSimilar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 20
OPP 28
+7
1.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 7 yds to the LIB 21Similar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 13
OPP 21
+21
4.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 21 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21END OF GAME
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0898% → 99%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
1.9%
James Jointer Jr. run for 2 yds to the WKU 36Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+9
1.9%
Malik Caper run for 9 yds to the WKU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
1.8%
J. Bennett takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 28
-1
1.3%
J. Bennett takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:51
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Victor Venn for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)
-13.9
TD · Q4 14:21
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)
-12.1
TD · Q4 8:32
Austin Reed pass complete to River Helms for 63 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com