Florida State

Profile vs. FBS, 2023

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1868th
  Defense+0.0289th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.2%40th
  Defense35.8%92nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3894th
  Defense+1.2652nd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0223rd
  Defense+0.0947th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3276th
  Defense−0.0598th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense46.0%31st
  Defense40.5%95th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense31.2%50th
  Defense27.3%80th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.644th
  Defense2.7886th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.9%20th
  Defense20.8%86th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.9%55th
  Defense21.8%96th

Percentiles among the 133 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2023

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Florida State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   LSU
2. W
   USM
3. W
   BC
4. W
   CLEM
5. W
   VT
6. W
   SYR
7. W
   DUKE
8. W
   WAKE
9. W
   PITT
10. W
    MIA
11. W
    UNA
12. W
    FLA
13. W
    LOU
14. L
    UGA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Florida State.

Players, 2023

1. Jordan TravisQB303 plays · +0.358 pts/play · 17th of 250 QBs
   2.03WAR1.32 to 2.71
2. Trey BensonRB138 plays · +0.124 pts/play · 64th of 383 RBs
   0.32WAR0.18 to 0.45
3. Johnny WilsonWR53 plays · +0.248 pts/play · 39th of 457 WRs
   0.25WAR0.11 to 0.39
4. Alex MastromannoP47 plays · +0.234 pts/play · 5th of 103 punters
   0.21WAR0.12 to 0.29
5. Keon ColemanWR58 plays · +0.172 pts/play · 81st of 457 WRs
   0.19WAR0.03 to 0.33
6. Jaheim BellTE46 plays · +0.197 pts/play · 20th of 212 TEs
   0.17WAR0.07 to 0.27
7. Lawrance ToafiliRB71 plays · +0.102 pts/play · 194th of 383 RBs
   0.14WAR0.06 to 0.21
8. Brock GlennQB42 plays · +0.100 pts/play · 220th of 250 QBs
   0.08WAR0.01 to 0.16

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Florida State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2023

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  76576520th of 130Roster talent: 765, 20th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  23023018th of 130Recruiting: 230, 18th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  79%79%16th of 128Returning production: 79%, 16th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +19.4+19.49th of 130SP+ rating: +19.4, 9th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2023

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Florida State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.16 of the 0.20 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at CLEMQ4 0:12 4th & 10 at CLEM 39, tiedWent for it; the numbers favored a field goal−7.1 pts
2. vs LOUQ4 10:56 4th & 12 at FSU 23, up 4Went for it; the numbers favored punting−5.8 pts
3. at FLAQ4 7:17 4th & 2 at FLA 2, down 1Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.4 pts
4. vs MIAQ3 9:32 4th & 4 at MIA 4, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
5. vs LSUQ3 9:19 4th & 3 at LSU 15, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
6. vs LOUQ2 2:58 4th & 6 at FSU 49, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
7. vs LSUQ1 2:21 4th & 1 at FSU 34, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
8. vs DUKEQ2 7:31 4th & 4 at DUKE 14, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2023

10th of 133 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Florida State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   LSU
2. W

   USM
3. W

   BC
4. W

   CLEM
5. W

   VT
6. W

   SYR
7. W

   DUKE
8. W

   WAKE
9. W

   PITT
10. W

    MIA
11. W

    UNA
12. W

    FLA
13. W

    LOU
14. L

    UGA

What moved it, 2023

Every game starts at Florida State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+2.87
• Possession & field position−0.03
• Clock−0.12
• Timeouts+0.23
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.72

Game by game

• LSUW 45-24 vs LSU41% → 100%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +59: Scoreboard +50
• USMW 66-13 vs USM97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +4
• BCW 31-29 at BC95% → 93%Before kickoff +45 · On the field −2: Scoreboard +16, Clock +1
• CLEMW 31-24 at CLEM55% → 77%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +35, Timeouts +20
• VTW 39-17 vs VT94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +10
• SYRW 41-3 vs SYR90% → 100%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +12
• DUKEW 38-20 vs DUKE83% → 98%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +22
• WAKEW 41-16 at WAKE93% → 100%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +12
• PITTW 24-7 at PITT93% → 99%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +14, Clock +1
• MIAW 27-20 vs MIA83% → 97%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +21, Timeouts +1
• UNAW 58-13 vs UNA70% → 100%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +32, Possession & field position −1
• FLAW 24-15 at FLA69% → 96%Before kickoff +19 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +39, Clock +2
• LOUW 16-6 vs LOU59% → 97%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +38: Scoreboard +35, Timeouts +2
• UGAL 3-63 vs UGA11% → 0%Before kickoff −39 · On the field −11: Scoreboard −16

Points of win probability, from Florida State's side.

Closest call

LSU 23-24 FSU (2022) - Florida State dropped to a 4.0% win probability before pulling it out.