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FSU

Florida State 41 at Wake Forest 16

WAKE
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:32 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:06: Ke'Shawn Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +3.8 pts (now 16%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 4:16: Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for 80 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +4.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:16: Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 14 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 11:11: Matthew Dennis 24 yd FG GOOD — WAKE win probability +2.9 pts (now 5%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:52: Tate Carney run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — WAKE win probability +4.6 pts (now 7%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 10 of 11FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 8:21WAKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:26FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:27WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:33FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:19WAKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:11FSU 4th & 8 at WAKE 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:03WAKE 4th & 19 at WAKE 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:35FSU 4th & 20 at FSU 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−1.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:31WAKE 4th & 15 at WAKE 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:45WAKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:48WAKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 7, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−1.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:11WAKE 4th & 6 at FSU 6, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.7%−2.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:32FSU 4th & 12 at FSU 13, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:16WAKE 4th & 6 at FSU 23, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−3.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:40FSU 4th & 8 at WAKE 11, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:21WAKE 4th & 14 at WAKE 30, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:31FSU 4th & 17 at FSU 46, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:06WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 13, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 2FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:38FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:06WAKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:41FSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:16FSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:16FSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:52WAKE Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:09FSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1593% → 92%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
7.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 8 yds to the FSU 33Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
7.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 6 yds to the FSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
7.9%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
7.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 3 yds to the FSU 42Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+13
8.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 13 yds to the WAKE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+33
8.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 33 yds to the WAKE 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
8.6%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 5 yards to the WAKE 17 Jordan Travis fumbled, recovered by FSU Jordan Travis Travis at WAKEFOREST17.Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 15
OPP 17
+4
8.8%
Rodney Hill run for 4 yds to the WAKE 13Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+13
8.4%
Jordan Travis run for 13 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:099% → 9%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
8.6%
Justice Ellison run for 9 yds to the WAKE 34Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
8.8%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WAKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
8.9%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WAKE 40Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
9.1%
Mitch Griffis pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-5
9.0%
Mitch Griffis sacked by Patrick Payton and Tatum Bethune for a loss of 5 yards to the WAKE 35Similar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
9.0%
Ivan Mora punt for 53 yds , Keon Coleman returns for no gain to the FSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:5091% → 90%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
9.1%
Trey Benson run for 5 yds to the FSU 17Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+14
9.2%
Jordan Travis run for 14 yds to the FSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
9.2%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
9.3%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Darion WilliamsonSimilar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+3
9.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 3 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q1 6:26
4TH & 7
OWN 34
+4
9.7%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 48 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 4 yds to the WAKE 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4810% → 10%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
9.7%
Demond Claiborne run for 1 yd to the WAKE 23Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
9.9%
Mitch Griffis pass incomplete to Jahmal BanksSimilar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
9.8%
Mitch Griffis pass incomplete to Wesley GrimesSimilar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
9.7%
Ivan Mora punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Keon Coleman at the FSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4590% → 90%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
9.7%
Trey Benson run for 8 yds to the FSU 45Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
9.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
9.8%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Kentron PoitierSimilar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
10.0%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 54 yds, downed at the WAKE 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0710% → 10%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
10.2%
Demond Claiborne run for 4 yds to the WAKE 5Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 6
OWN 5
0
10.4%
Demond Claiborne run for no gain to the WAKE 5Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 6
OWN 5
-2
10.3%
Wake Forest Penalty, False Start (-2 Yards) to the WAKE 3Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 8
OWN 3
0
10.3%
Mitch Griffis pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 8
OWN 3
+11
10.3%
Ivan Mora punt for 56 yds , Keon Coleman returns for 11 yds to the WAKE 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7FG
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:5890% → 89%
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
10.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for 9 yds to the WAKE 39Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 1
OPP 39
-4
10.1%
Rodney Hill run for a loss of 4 yards to the WAKE 43Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+13
10.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for 13 yds to the WAKE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
10.2%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the WAKE 27Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
10.3%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
10.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jaheim BellSimilar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+46
10.6%
Ryan Fitzgerald 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:5810% → 16%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
10.3%
Justice Ellison run for 5 yds to the WAKE 30Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+51
10.5%
Justice Ellison run for 51 yds to the FSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
11.4%
Demond Claiborne run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 20Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+19
11.6%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Taylor Morin for 19 yds to the FSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
11.7%
Demond Claiborne run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 2Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
11.9%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the FSU 2Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
15.7%
Ke'Shawn Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 0:5986% → 89%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+23
14.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Rodney Hill for 23 yds to the WAKE 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
13.8%
Trey Benson run for 5 yds to the WAKE 29Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+29
11.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 29 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:2712% → 11%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
11.5%
Mitch Griffis pass incomplete to Jahmal BanksSimilar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-5
11.5%
Wake Forest Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WAKE 17Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 15
OWN 17
-3
11.4%
Demond Claiborne run for a loss of 3 yards to the WAKE 14Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 18
OWN 14
-1
11.2%
Mitch Griffis run for a loss of 1 yard to the WAKE 13Similar
Q2 9:03
4TH & 19
OWN 13
0
11.2%
Ivan Mora punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Keon Coleman at the FSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 2:2288% → 88%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
12.0%
Trey Benson run for no gain to the FSU 41Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-10
12.2%
Travis, Jordan pass complete to Poitier, Kentron for 59 yards to the WAKEFOREST0, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding 10 yards to the FLORIDAST31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 20
OWN 31
-15
12.2%
Travis, Jordan pass complete to Coleman, Keon for 25 yards to the WAKEFOREST44, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference 15 yards to the FLORIDAST16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 35
OWN 16
-1
12.1%
Caziah Holmes run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 15Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 36
OWN 15
+16
12.2%
Caziah Holmes run for 16 yds to the FSU 31Similar
Q2 6:35
4TH & 20
OWN 31
0
12.5%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WAKE 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:5913% → 12%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
12.5%
Griffis, Mitch pass incomplete to Banks, Jahmal, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
50
+3
13.2%
Mitch Griffis run for 3 yds to the FSU 47Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-8
13.5%
Mitch Griffis sacked by Jared Verse for a loss of 8 yards to the WAKE 45Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 15
OWN 45
0
12.1%
Mitch Griffis run for no gain to the WAKE 45Similar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
12.0%
Ivan Mora punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
7.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for 80 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:239% → 9%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
8.8%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the WAKE 29Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-6
8.9%
Mitch Griffis sacked by Jared Verse for a loss of 6 yards to the WAKE 23Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
8.5%
Mitch Griffis pass incomplete to Wesley GrimesSimilar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
8.5%
Ivan Mora punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Keon Coleman at the FSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:2393% → 97%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
7.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 5 yds to the FSU 39Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+4
7.0%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the FSU 43Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+5
6.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 5 yds to the FSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+38
6.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 38 yds to the WAKE 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
3.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 14 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:195% → 6%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
5.1%
Mitch Griffis pass incomplete to Jahmal BanksSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
5.8%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the WAKE 9Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 10
OWN 9
-2
5.7%
Mitch Griffis sacked by Kalen DeLoach for a loss of 2 yards to the WAKE 7Similar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 12
OWN 7
+13
6.0%
Ivan Mora punt for 43 yds , Keon Coleman returns for 13 yds to the WAKE 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17FG
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:4197% → 98%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
3.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+7
3.5%
Jordan Travis run for 7 yds to the WAKE 30Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+14
3.1%
Travis, Jordan pass incomplete to Coleman, Keon, PENALTY WAKEFOREST pass interference 14 yards to the WAKEFOREST16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
2.9%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+34
1.8%
Ryan Fitzgerald 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
2.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WAKE 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 3:342% → 5%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
1.7%
Demond Claiborne run for 16 yds to the WAKE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+29
1.8%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 14 yds to the FSU 45 for a 1ST down Florida State Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (15 Yards) to the FSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
1.8%
Demond Claiborne run for 2 yds to the FSU 28Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+8
1.8%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 8 yds to the FSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
1.7%
Mitch Griffis run for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 22Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+3
1.8%
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds to the FSU 19Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+12
1.7%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 12 yds to the FSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
2.0%
Demond Claiborne run for 1 yd to the FSU 6Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
1.9%
Demond Claiborne run for no gain to the FSU 6Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
1.8%
Mitch Griffis pass incomplete to Jahmal BanksSimilar
Q3 11:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
4.7%
Matthew Dennis 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2897% → 97%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
3.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 3 yds to the FSU 18Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-5
3.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for a loss of 5 yards to the FSU 13Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 12
OWN 13
0
2.8%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Kentron PoitierSimilar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 12
OWN 13
+8
2.9%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 37 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 8 yds to the FSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:084% → 4%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
3.6%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the FSU 42 for a 1ST down Florida State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the FSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
3.9%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the FSU 25Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+2
3.8%
Mitch Griffis run for 2 yds to the FSU 23Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
3.7%
Mitch Griffis pass incomplete to Jahmal BanksSimilar
Q3 8:16
4TH & 6
OPP 23
0
3.5%
Mitch Griffis pass incomplete to Cameron HiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22MISSED FG
9 plays · 66 yds · 3:2998% → 98%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
2.5%
Trey Benson run for 6 yds to the FSU 29Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+48
2.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 33 yds to the WAKE 38 for a 1ST down Wake Forest Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the WAKE 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
2.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 3 yds to the WAKE 20Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+2
2.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for 2 yds to the WAKE 18Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+5
2.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for 5 yds to the WAKE 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
2.0%
Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the WAKE 11Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
2.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Darion WilliamsonSimilar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
2.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q3 4:40
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
2.3%
Ryan Fitzgerald 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:433% → 7%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
2.7%
Tate Carney run for 6 yds to the WAKE 26Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+15
2.7%
Tate Carney run for no gain to the WAKE 26 for a 1ST down Florida State Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the WAKE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
2.7%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 1
50
+1
2.9%
Tate Carney run for 1 yd to the FSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
2.8%
Mitch Griffis run for 2 yds to the FSU 47Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+20
2.9%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Tate Carney for 20 yds to the FSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
3.1%
Tate Carney run for 1 yd to the FSU 26Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+20
2.8%
Mitch Griffis run for 20 yds to the FSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
2.9%
Tate Carney run for 4 yds to the FSU 2Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
7.4%
Tate Carney run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3997% → 100%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
3.5%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the FSU 28Similar
Q3 0:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
3.6%
Trey Benson run for 5 yds to the FSU 33Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+13
3.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 13 yds to the FSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
3.2%
Rodney Hill run for 2 yds to the FSU 48Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+8
3.1%
Jordan Travis run for 8 yds to the WAKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
3.0%
Rodney Hill run for 6 yds to the WAKE 38Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+32
3.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 32 yds to the WAKE 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-12
2.3%
Jordan Travis sacked by Jasheen Davis for a loss of 12 yards to the WAKE 18Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 0
OPP 18
0
2.2%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Kentron PoitierSimilar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 0
OPP 18
+18
0.3%
Trey Benson run for 18 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 3:340% → 0%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
0.4%
Tate Carney run for 3 yds to the WAKE 26Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+5
0.4%
Tate Carney run for 5 yds to the WAKE 31Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+3
0.4%
Tate Carney run for 3 yds to the WAKE 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
0.3%
Santino Marucci run for 1 yd to the WAKE 35Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+1
0.3%
Tate Carney run for 1 yd to the WAKE 36Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-6
0.3%
Santino Marucci sacked by Byron Turner Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the WAKE 30Similar
Q4 7:21
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
0.2%
Ivan Mora punt for 40 yds, downed at the FSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:39100% → 100%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
0.2%
Caziah Holmes run for no gain to the FSU 30Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+23
0.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Darion Williamson for 23 yds to the WAKE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
0.2%
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds to the WAKE 43Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-5
0.2%
Florida State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the WAKE 48Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-12
0.2%
Rodney Hill run for 3 yds to the FSU 45 Florida State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the FSU 40Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 23
OWN 40
+6
0.2%
Tate Rodemaker run for 6 yds to the FSU 46Similar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 17
OWN 46
0
0.2%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WAKE 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
0.2%
David Egbe run for 3 yds to the WAKE 11Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+2
0.2%
David Egbe run for 2 yds to the WAKE 13Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 5
OWN 13
0
0.1%
David Egbe run for no gain to the WAKE 13Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
0.1%
Ivan Mora punt for 64 yds, downed at the FSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:31100% → 100%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 21Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 12
OWN 21
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:52
Tate Carney run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+4.6
TD · Q2 4:16
Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for 80 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
-4.5
TD · Q2 12:06
Ke'Shawn Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com