FSU
Florida State 13 at Stanford 20
STAN2025 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2025 · Stanford Stadium
Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:00 · Kevin Sperry pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 1 yd to the STAN 1
01
Market gave STAN a 11% pregame chance
−51
02
FSU has the ball
+10
03
Blowout context favors the defense
+11
04
Defense has -8 timeouts left
−9
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
Emmet Kenney kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 15:00
(14:59) PENALTY FSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from FSU25 to FSU20. NO PLAY.
-0.5
Q1 14:51
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 7 yds to the FSU 27
0.0
Q1 14:23
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Micahi Danzy
-0.1
Q1 14:16
Tommy Castellanos run for 1 yd to the FSU 28
0.0
Q1 13:45
Mac Chiumento punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Liam Thorpe at the STAN 18
0.0
Q1 13:38
Micah Ford run for 5 yds to the STAN 23
+0.6
Q1 12:58
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 12 yds to the STAN 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 12:28
Micah Ford run for 2 yds to the STAN 37
0.0
Q1 11:49
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 17 yds to the FSU 46 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 11:13
Stanford Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard line
+0.4
Q1 10:47
Cole Tabb run for 18 yds to the FSU 32 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q1 10:13
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Cole Tabb
+0.3
Q1 10:03
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 9 yds to the FSU 23
0.0
Q1 9:44
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the FSU 19 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q1 9:07
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the FSU 15
+0.1
Q1 8:30
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the FSU 14
+0.1
Q1 7:46
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Marcus Brown
-0.1
Q1 7:42
Timeout Stanford, clock 07:42
-1.3
Q1 7:41
Emmet Kenney 32 yd FG GOOD
+2.6
Q1 7:41
Emmet Kenney kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.2
Q1 7:36
Gavin Sawchuk run for 9 yds to the FSU 34
-0.9
Q1 7:21
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the FSU 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 6:59
Gavin Sawchuk run for 8 yds to the FSU 44
0.0
Q1 6:42
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the FSU 46 for a 1ST down
-0.4
Q1 5:54
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 18 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 5:43
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the STAN 34
-0.2
Q1 5:19
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Randy Pittman Jr.
+0.2
Q1 5:11
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 1 yd to the STAN 33
0.0
Q1 4:31
(04:30) PENALTY FSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from STAN33 to STAN38. NO PLAY.
+0.2
Q1 4:25
Jake Weinberg 57 yd FG MISSED
0.0
Q1 4:18
Cole Tabb run for a loss of 3 yards to the STAN 36
+1.5
Q1 3:41
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Caden High
0.0
Q1 3:34
Ben Gulbranson pass intercepted Earl Little Jr. return for no gain to the FSU 25
0.0
Q1 3:28
Tommy Castellanos run for 2 yds to the FSU 27
-1.0
Q1 3:00
Ousmane Kromah run for 11 yds to the FSU 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 2:34
Ousmane Kromah run for 2 yds to the FSU 40
-0.2
Q1 2:13
Ousmane Kromah run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 39
0.0
Q1 1:48
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 20 yds to the STAN 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 1:32
Ousmane Kromah run for 5 yds to the STAN 36
-0.4
Q1 0:57
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the STAN 34
+0.1
Q1 0:20
Gavin Sawchuk run for 9 yds to the STAN 25 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 0:00
Gavin Sawchuk run for no gain to the STAN 25
+0.3
Q2 14:53
Tommy Castellanos run for 4 yds to the STAN 21
+0.1
Q2 14:38
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Jayvan Boggs
0.0
Q2 14:34
Jake Weinberg 39 yd FG GOOD
-1.4
Q2 14:34
Jake Weinberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.4
Q2 14:22
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Sam Roush for 16 yds to the STAN 41 for a 1ST down
+1.0
Q2 13:39
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Caden High for 29 yds to the FSU 30 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q2 13:08
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the FSU 26
+0.4
Q2 12:36
Micah Ford run for 5 yds to the FSU 21
0.0
Q2 12:16
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the FSU 18 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q2 11:36
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the FSU 17
+0.1
Q2 11:28
Timeout Stanford, clock 11:28
0.0
Q2 11:15
Bryce Farrell run for 5 yds to the FSU 12
0.0
Q2 10:40
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Cole Tabb
+0.3
Q2 10:35
(10:39) Kenney,Emmet field goal attempt from 30 yards NO GOOD (H: Flintoft,Aidan, LS: Warford,Peyton), clock 10:35 PENALTY FSU Offside (Joseph,Edwin) 5 yards from FSU12 to FSU07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
-0.1
Q2 10:29
Cole Tabb run for 2 yds to the FSU 5
+0.2
Q2 9:53
Cole Tabb run for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 7
0.0
Q2 9:13
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to CJ Williams for 7 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)
+5.8
Q2 9:13
Timeout Stanford, clock 09:13
-7.2
Q2 9:13
Emmet Kenney kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+6.5
Q2 9:07
Gavin Sawchuk run for 4 yds to the FSU 29
-1.7
Q2 8:34
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the FSU 31
0.0
Q2 8:06
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Duce Robinson
+0.3
Q2 8:00
Mac Chiumento punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Liam Thorpe at the STAN 30
0.0
Q2 7:58
Timeout Stanford, clock 07:58
+1.4
Q2 7:52
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the STAN 34
0.0
Q2 7:15
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the STAN 38
0.0
Q2 6:53
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Jordan Onovughe
+0.2
Q2 6:45
Aidan Flintoft punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Squirrel White at the FSU 13
-0.3
Q2 6:33
Jaylin Lucas run for no gain to the FSU 13
-1.1
Q2 6:05
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 5 yds to the FSU 18
+0.8
Q2 5:44
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Randy Pittman Jr.
0.0
Q2 5:43
(05:43) PENALTY FSU False Start (Suarez,Willy) 5 yards from FSU18 to FSU13. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 5:30
Mac Chiumento punt for 45 yds , Liam Thorpe returns for 26 yds to the FSU 32
0.0
Q2 5:24
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the FSU 28
+1.7
Q2 4:48
Cole Tabb run for 3 yds to the FSU 25
+1.1
Q2 4:12
(04:17) Shotgun Gulbranson,Ben pass incomplete deep middle to Doyle,Brendan thrown to FSU00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY FSU Pass Interference (Arnoux,Shamar) 15 yards from FSU25 to FSU10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
-0.1
Q2 4:07
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Sam Roush
+0.1
Q2 4:01
Ben Gulbranson sacked by K.J. Kirkland for a loss of 12 yards to the FSU 22
0.0
Q2 3:38
Cole Tabb run for 14 yds to the FSU 8
-0.1
Q2 2:53
Emmet Kenney 26 yd FG GOOD
+3.1
Q2 2:52
Emmet Kenney kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q2 2:47
Tommy Castellanos run for 5 yds to the FSU 30
-1.2
Q2 2:27
Gavin Sawchuk run for 4 yds to the FSU 34
0.0
Q2 2:11
Gavin Sawchuk run for 6 yds to the FSU 40 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q2 2:00
Timeout Stanford, clock 02:00
+0.5
Q2 1:49
Tommy Castellanos run for 5 yds to the FSU 45
0.0
Q2 1:28
Tommy Castellanos run for 3 yds to the FSU 48
+0.1
Q2 1:23
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q2 1:11
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 37 yds to the STAN 13 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q2 1:11
Timeout Stanford, clock 01:11
-0.8
Q2 1:05
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 5 yds to the STAN 8
0.0
Q2 1:05
Timeout Stanford, clock 01:05
0.0
Q2 0:57
(01:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Castellanos,Tommy rush left for 3 yards gain to the STAN05, out of bounds at STAN05 PENALTY FSU Holding offsetting STAN Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 0:40
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Lawayne McCoy
+0.1
Q2 0:40
Tommy Castellanos run for 8 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)
-7.5
Q2 0:35
Jake Weinberg kickoff for 62 yds , Caden High return for 17 yds to the STAN 20
+1.0
Q2 0:00
E. Brown takes a knee
+0.7
Q3 15:00
Jake Weinberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-1.0
Q3 14:55
Elijah Brown pass complete to Sam Roush for 11 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST down
+0.8
Q3 14:31
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the STAN 40
+0.8
Q3 14:00
(14:01) Tabb,Cole rush middle for 7 yards gain to the STAN47 (Barker,Ashlynd) PENALTY STAN Holding (Anderson,Fisher) 10 yards from STAN40 to STAN30. NO PLAY.
+0.1
Q3 13:37
Elijah Brown pass incomplete to Bryce Farrell
-0.2
Q3 13:26
Elijah Brown pass complete to Marcus Brown for 8 yds to the STAN 38
0.0
Q3 12:48
Aidan Flintoft punt for 57 yds , Squirrel White returns for 16 yds to the FSU 3
-0.1
Q3 12:39
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Squirrel White
-1.2
Q3 12:24
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 12 yds to the FSU 15 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 12:12
Gavin Sawchuk run for 8 yds to the FSU 23
0.0
Q3 11:52
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the FSU 24
0.0
Q3 11:28
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the FSU 26 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 10:47
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 38 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 10:31
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Jayvan Boggs
-0.3
Q3 10:22
Florida State Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (-5 Yards) to the STAN 41
0.0
Q3 10:14
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Lawayne McCoy
+0.2
Q3 10:06
Timeout Stanford, clock 10:06
+3.4
Q3 10:05
Mac Chiumento punt for 35 yds
-2.9
Q3 9:51
Cole Tabb run for 4 yds to the STAN 10
+3.2
Q3 9:22
Cole Tabb run for 5 yds to the STAN 15
0.0
Q3 8:31
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd to the STAN 16 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q3 8:00
Elijah Brown pass complete to Sam Roush for 8 yds to the STAN 24
0.0
Q3 7:15
Cole Tabb run for 3 yds to the STAN 27 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 6:37
Elijah Brown pass incomplete to Sam Roush
+0.1
Q3 6:29
Sedrick Irvin run for 1 yd to the STAN 28
0.0
Q3 5:47
Elijah Brown pass complete to CJ Williams for 28 yds to the FSU 44 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 5:13
(05:18) Shotgun Brown,Elijah pass incomplete deep left to Roush,Sam thrown to FSU23 PENALTY FSU Roughing The Passer (Williams,James) 15 yards from FSU44 to FSU29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
+0.6
Q3 4:56
Elijah Brown pass complete to Sam Roush for 10 yds to the FSU 19 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q3 4:25
Cole Tabb run for 15 yds to the FSU 4 for a 1ST down
+1.2
Q3 4:06
(04:11) No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Elijah pass incomplete short right to High,Caden thrown to FSU00 PENALTY FSU Pass Interference (Wilson,Jerry) 2 yards from FSU04 to FSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
+0.1
Q3 4:01
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd to the FSU 1
0.0
Q3 3:22
Cole Tabb run for no gain to the FSU 1
+0.4
Q3 3:02
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)
+12.9
Q3 3:02
Timeout Stanford, clock 03:02
-15.8
Q3 2:52
Emmet Kenney kickoff for 62 yds , Jaylin Lucas return for 25 yds to the FSU 28
+16.1
Q3 2:52
Timeout Stanford, clock 02:52
-4.3
Q3 2:42
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Squirrel White
0.0
Q3 2:36
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the FSU 29
0.0
Q3 1:57
Tommy Castellanos sacked by Scotty Edwards for a loss of 5 yards to the FSU 24
+0.9
Q3 1:21
Mac Chiumento punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Liam Thorpe at the STAN 28
+2.4
Q3 1:13
Cole Tabb run for 3 yds to the STAN 31
+3.6
Q3 0:00
Cole Tabb run for 5 yds to the STAN 36
+1.9
Q4 14:54
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd to the STAN 37
0.0
Q4 14:18
PENALTY FSU Offside (Lyons,Daniel) 5 yards from STAN37 to STAN42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
+1.5
Q4 13:57
Cole Tabb run for 3 yds to the STAN 45
+0.6
Q4 13:23
Elijah Brown pass incomplete to CJ Williams
0.0
Q4 13:19
Elijah Brown pass incomplete to CJ Williams
0.0
Q4 13:04
Aidan Flintoft punt for 45 yds , Lawayne McCoy returns for 32 yds to the FSU 42
-0.3
Q4 13:04
Timeout Stanford, clock 13:04
-5.5
Q4 12:43
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Ousmane Kromah for 31 yds to the STAN 27 for a 1ST down
+1.4
Q4 12:36
Tommy Castellanos run for 6 yds to the STAN 21
-1.4
Q4 12:15
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Lawayne McCoy
+1.4
Q4 12:10
Gavin Sawchuk run for 3 yds to the STAN 18
0.0
Q4 11:34
Tommy Castellanos run for 2 yds to the STAN 16 for a 1ST down
+1.1
Q4 11:17
Gavin Sawchuk run for a loss of 2 yards to the STAN 18
-0.4
Q4 10:48
Tommy Castellanos run for 1 yd to the STAN 17
0.0
Q4 10:02
Tommy Castellanos run for 3 yds to the STAN 14
+0.3
Q4 9:22
Timeout Stanford, clock 09:22
+7.0
Q4 9:22
Jake Weinberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-15.0
Q4 9:21
Jake Weinberg 33 yd FG GOOD
-0.9
Q4 9:16
Elijah Brown sacked by Jayson Jenkins for a loss of 7 yards to the STAN 18
+10.7
Q4 8:41
Elijah Brown pass incomplete to Myles Libman
+0.6
Q4 8:30
Elijah Brown pass complete to Sam Roush for 6 yds to the STAN 24
+0.1
Q4 7:43
Aidan Flintoft punt for 54 yds , Squirrel White returns for 3 yds to the FSU 25
+0.8
Q4 7:27
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 5 yds to the FSU 30
-5.9
Q4 6:55
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 48 yds to the STAN 22 for a 1ST down
+0.6
Q4 6:34
Jaylin Lucas run for 3 yds to the STAN 19
-0.1
Q4 6:05
Gavin Sawchuk run for 5 yds to the STAN 14
0.0
Q4 5:27
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Randy Pittman Jr.
-0.5
Q4 5:21
Tommy Castellanos run for 1 yd to the STAN 13
+0.4
Q4 5:06
Elijah Brown run for 4 yds to the STAN 17
+13.2
Q4 4:37
Cole Tabb run for 1 yd to the STAN 18
-0.9
Q4 3:52
Elijah Brown pass incomplete to Marcus Brown
+3.7
Q4 3:46
Aidan Flintoft punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Squirrel White at the FSU 39
+0.1
Q4 3:30
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 3 yds to the FSU 42
-10.8
Q4 3:10
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Micahi Danzy
+0.6
Q4 2:50
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 12 yds to the STAN 46 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q4 2:35
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Lawayne McCoy
-0.6
Q4 2:35
Timeout Stanford, clock 02:35
-2.4
Q4 2:23
(02:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Castellanos,Tommy rush middle for 35 yards gain to the STAN11 (Leigber,Mitch) PENALTY FSU Holding (Pettus,Micah) 10 yards from STAN46 to FSU44. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q4 2:06
Kevin Sperry run for 2 yds to the STAN 39
-0.2
Q4 1:55
Kevin Sperry pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for no gain to the STAN 39
+0.6
Q4 1:55
Timeout Stanford, clock 01:55
+1.8
Q4 1:49
(01:54) No Huddle-Shotgun Sperry,Kevin pass incomplete short left thrown to STAN25 QB hurried by Patterson,Clay PENALTY FSU Intentional Grounding (Sperry,Kevin). NO PLAY.
0.0
Q4 1:26
Kevin Sperry pass incomplete to Duce Robinson
+1.4
Q4 1:22
Timeout Stanford, clock 01:22
+17.0
Q4 1:19
Timeout Stanford, clock 01:19
0.0
Q4 1:18
Cole Tabb run for 12 yds to the FSU 49 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:18
Cole Tabb run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line
0.0
Q4 1:13
Cole Tabb run for 6 yds to the FSU 44
0.0
Q4 1:13
Timeout Stanford, clock 01:13
+12.4
Q4 1:13
PENALTY STAN Delay Of Game 5 yards from FSU44 to FSU49. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q4 1:03
Aidan Flintoft punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FSU 20 , Squirrel White returns for 16 yds to the FSU 20
0.0
Q4 0:59
Kevin Sperry pass incomplete to Duce Robinson
-24.0
Q4 0:49
Kevin Sperry run for 15 yds to the FSU 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 0:41
Kevin Sperry pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 0:41
PENALTY FSU False Start (Pettus,Micah) 5 yards from STAN50 to FSU45. NO PLAY.
-0.3
Q4 0:31
Kevin Sperry sacked by Zach Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the FSU 38
+0.4
Q4 0:09
Kevin Sperry pass incomplete to Duce Robinson
+0.3
Q4 0:06
Kevin Sperry pass complete to Micahi Danzy for 53 yds to the STAN 9 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 0:02
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Sperry,Kevin pass incomplete short right to Robinson,Duce thrown to STAN00 PENALTY STAN Pass Interference (Ojarikre,Che) 7 yards from STAN09 to STAN02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
-3.7
Q4 0:00
Timeout Stanford, clock 00:00
-8.9
Q4 0:00
Kevin Sperry pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 1 yd to the STAN 1
0.0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:59
Kevin Sperry pass incomplete to Duce Robinson
-24
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:22
Timeout Stanford, clock 01:22
+17
KEY PLAY · Q3 2:52
Emmet Kenney kickoff for 62 yds , Jaylin Lucas return for 25 yds to the FSU 28
+16.1