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DUKE

Duke 20 at Florida State 38

FSU
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:29 · Peyton Jones run for 5 yds to the FSU 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:13: Jordan Travis pass complete to Caziah Holmes for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +4.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 13:04: Jordan Travis pass intercepted for a TD Chandler Rivers return for 13 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +6.9 pts (now 31%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:51: Charlie Ham kickoff for 64 yds , Deuce Spann return for 99 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +6.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:03: Jordan Travis run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +17.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:23: Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 21 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +13.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:56FSU 4th & 1 at DUKE 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.0%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:17FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    79.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:48DUKE 4th & 3 at FSU 28, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.8%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:35DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:31FSU 4th & 4 at DUKE 14, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.2%−0.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−5.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:12DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:07FSU 4th & 12 at FSU 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−3.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:21DUKE 4th & 3 at FSU 4, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.7%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    43.8%−1.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−15.0
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:35DUKE 4th & 19 at DUKE 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−4.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:12DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:50DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:13FSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:04DUKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:51FSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:03FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:23FSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:15FSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 39 yds · 2:5983% → 82%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.6%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
82.5%
Lawrance Toafili run for 13 yds to the FSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
82.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jaheim BellSimilar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
82.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 9 yds to the FSU 47Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+8
82.3%
Trey Benson run for 8 yds to the DUKE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
82.4%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the DUKE 44Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+2
82.2%
Rodney Hill run for 2 yds to the DUKE 42Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+6
82.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 6 yds to the DUKE 36Similar
Q1 11:56
4TH & 1
OPP 36
0
81.9%
Jordan Travis run for no gain to the DUKE 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 1:4518% → 20%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
81.6%
Jordan Waters run for 8 yds to the DUKE 44Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+3
81.3%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the DUKE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
81.2%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jeremiah HasleySimilar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
81.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 11 yds to the FSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
80.9%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan WatersSimilar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+42
79.6%
Jaquez Moore run for 42 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3DOWNS
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3180% → 79%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
80.0%
Florida State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FSU 22Similar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+10
79.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 10 yds to the FSU 32Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+4
79.6%
Trey Benson run for 4 yds to the FSU 36Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 1
OWN 36
0
79.6%
Florida State Penalty, Illegal Touching (Kyle Morlock) to the FSU 36Similar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 1
OWN 36
-1
78.9%
Trey Benson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2422% → 22%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
78.4%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the FSU 32Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+4
77.6%
Jaquez Moore run for 4 yds to the FSU 28Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 3
OPP 28
0
77.5%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q1 6:48
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+45
77.6%
Todd Pelino 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 6:1778% → 78%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
77.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 10 yds to the FSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
77.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 11 yds to the FSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
77.3%
Caziah Holmes run for 1 yd to the FSU 37Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+6
76.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 6 yds to the FSU 43Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+8
76.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 8 yds to the DUKE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
76.6%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the DUKE 46Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-4
76.6%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard line Jordan Travis fumbled, recovered by FSU Maurice Smith , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 11
50
+12
75.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 12 yds to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
75.5%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-10
74.5%
Florida State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the DUKE 48Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 20
OPP 48
+22
73.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 22 yds to the DUKE 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
74.4%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the DUKE 22Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+15
73.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 15 yds to the DUKE 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
78.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Caziah Holmes for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2524% → 23%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.1%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the DUKE 25Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
76.1%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
76.4%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q2 14:35
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+1
76.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 60 yds , Keon Coleman returns for 1 yd to the FSU 26 Florida State Penalty, Illegal Block (8 Yards) to the FSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7DOWNS TD
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:5876% → 69%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-5
75.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for a loss of 5 yards to the FSU 3Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 15
OWN 3
+3
75.5%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the FSU 6Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 12
OWN 6
-13
68.6%
Jordan Travis pass intercepted for a TD Chandler Rivers return for 13 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9INT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:1825% → 26%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
74.9%
Jaquez Moore run for 15 yds to the DUKE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
73.9%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
74.2%
Duke Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 35Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+18
74.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 18 yds to the FSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
73.3%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 13
50
+2
73.3%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the FSU 48Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 11
OPP 48
-10
73.2%
Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (Graham Barton) to the DUKE 42Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 21
OWN 42
0
73.8%
Riley Leonard pass intercepted Shyheim Brown return for no gain to the FSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:3275% → 76%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
75.4%
Florida State Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the FSU 36Similar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+14
73.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 14 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 1
50
+30
75.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 30 yds to the DUKE 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
75.7%
Rodney Hill run for 8 yds to the DUKE 12Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 2
OPP 12
-2
74.7%
Rodney Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 14Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
73.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
76.1%
Ryan Fitzgerald 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11FG
21 plays · 58 yds · 6:3227% → 37%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
73.1%
Jaquez Moore run for 6 yds to the DUKE 32Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+3
72.0%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the DUKE 35Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+5
71.8%
Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the DUKE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
70.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Waters for 8 yds to the DUKE 48Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+3
69.7%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the FSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
69.3%
Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (Maurice McIntyre) to the DUKE 41Similar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 20
OWN 41
0
70.9%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 20
OWN 41
+13
70.8%
Riley Leonard run for 13 yds to the FSU 46Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+24
68.7%
Jaquez Moore run for 24 yds to the FSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
67.1%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the FSU 20Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+14
66.1%
Jordan Waters run for 14 yds to the FSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
65.1%
Jordan Waters run for a loss of 3 yards to the FSU 9Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 0
OPP 9
-10
64.0%
Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Hornibrook) to the FSU 19Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 0
OPP 19
+1
64.4%
Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the FSU 18Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 0
OPP 18
+2
65.0%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the FSU 16Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+33
63.2%
Todd Pelino 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:2764% → 65%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
63.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 9 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
65.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 4 yds to the FSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
65.1%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
64.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 7 yds to the FSU 45Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-2
65.3%
Jordan Travis sacked by Wesley Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:0837% → 36%
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
63.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 6 yds to the DUKE 44Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+1
62.5%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the DUKE 45Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
62.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 3
OWN 45
-5
62.8%
Duke Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 40Similar
Q3 13:12
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+7
64.3%
Porter Wilson punt for 54 yds , Keon Coleman returns for 7 yds to the FSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3363% → 60%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
63.1%
Trey Benson run for 10 yds to the FSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
63.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 3 yds to the FSU 26Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
62.6%
Trey Benson run for no gain to the FSU 26Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
60.7%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:14
4TH & 7
OWN 26
-5
59.9%
Florida State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FSU 21Similar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 12
OWN 21
0
59.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15DOWNS
12 plays · 57 yds · 6:2241% → 46%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
59.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 8 yds to the DUKE 47Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+5
58.0%
Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the FSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
56.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 6 yds to the FSU 42Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+3
55.1%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the FSU 39Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+4
54.7%
Jaylen Coleman run for 4 yds to the FSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
52.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiah Hasley for 12 yds to the FSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
51.8%
Florida State Penalty, Face Mask (12 Yards) to the FSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
51.1%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the FSU 7Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
50.6%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the FSU 7Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+3
50.3%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the FSU 4Similar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 3
OPP 4
0
53.9%
Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16TD
15 plays · 96 yds · 5:4356% → 80%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
56.3%
Jordan Travis run for 8 yds to the FSU 12Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 2
OWN 12
-3
56.3%
Trey Benson run for a loss of 3 yards to the FSU 9Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 5
OWN 9
+6
53.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 6 yds to the FSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
55.5%
Jordan Travis run for 10 yds to the FSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for 3 yds to the FSU 28Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
55.6%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
53.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 11 yds to the FSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
56.5%
Lawrance Toafili run for 6 yds to the FSU 45Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+11
58.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 11 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
59.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 6 yds to the DUKE 38Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+3
59.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 3 yds to the DUKE 35Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+5
58.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 5 yds to the DUKE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
61.3%
Jordan Travis run for 20 yds to the DUKE 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 0
OPP 10
+8
62.6%
Duke Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (8 Yards) to the DUKE 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.4%
Jordan Travis run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:0324% → 22%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
75.6%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the DUKE 21Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-5
76.2%
Duke Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 16Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
76.2%
Henry Belin IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 19
OWN 16
0
77.5%
Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q4 11:35
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
78.2%
Porter Wilson punt for 58 yds , Keon Coleman returns for no gain to the FSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:5077% → 94%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
76.8%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the FSU 30Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+1
76.7%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the FSU 31Similar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+24
75.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 24 yds to the DUKE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
79.8%
Jordan Travis run for 5 yds to the DUKE 40Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+19
79.7%
Jordan Travis run for 19 yds to the DUKE 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
81.1%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Kentron PoitierSimilar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
94.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 21 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:597% → 7%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
92.9%
Henry Belin IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
93.2%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 7 yds to the DUKE 33Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 3
OWN 33
-1
92.5%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 32Similar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
93.3%
Henry Belin IV pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 2:2895% → 99%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
94.6%
Rodney Hill run for 4 yds to the DUKE 28Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+9
95.3%
Rodney Hill run for 9 yds to the DUKE 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
95.3%
Caziah Holmes run for 3 yds to the DUKE 16Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+7
95.4%
Caziah Holmes run for 7 yds to the DUKE 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.8%
Rodney Hill run for 9 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21END OF GAME
7 plays · 38 yds · 3:192% → 2%
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.2%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the DUKE 28Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
98.2%
Jaquez Moore run for 4 yds to the DUKE 32Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
98.2%
Jaylen Coleman run for 15 yds to the DUKE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
98.3%
Jaylen Coleman run for 7 yds to the FSU 46Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+4
98.1%
Jaylen Coleman run for 4 yds to the FSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
98.2%
Peyton Jones run for 5 yds to the FSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:03
Jordan Travis run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+17.8
TD · Q4 8:23
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 21 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+13
TD · Q2 13:04
Jordan Travis pass intercepted for a TD Chandler Rivers return for 13 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
-6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com