Florida State

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2480th
  Defense+0.1168th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense49.3%91st
  Defense43.5%39th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1433rd
  Defense+1.1474th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0841st
  Defense+0.0763rd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3986th
  Defense+0.1765th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense53.4%90th
  Defense47.2%49th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense40.0%91st
  Defense35.6%26th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.7740th
  Defense2.7266th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense22.0%24th
  Defense19.9%52nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.6%18th
  Defense1.7%31st

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Florida State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   OKST
2. W
   CIT
3. W
   CLEM
4. W
   NCSU
5. W
   WAKE
6. W
   SYR
7. W
   ND
8. W
   LOU
9. W
   UVA
10. W
    MIA
11. W
    BC
12. W
    FLA
13. W
    GT
14. L
    ORE

Bars above the line: better than expected for Florida State.

Players, 2014

1. Jameis WinstonQB426 plays · +0.338 pts/play · 4th of 199 QBs
   2.70WAR1.95 to 3.37
2. Rashad Greene Sr.?121 plays · +0.187 pts/play
   0.42WAR0.27 to 0.58
3. Dalvin CookRB162 plays · +0.133 pts/play · 37th of 350 RBs
   0.40WAR0.24 to 0.55
4. Karlos WilliamsRB144 plays · +0.102 pts/play · 82nd of 350 RBs
   0.27WAR0.17 to 0.36
5. Roberto AguayoPK22 plays · +0.509 pts/play · 6th of 114 kickers
   0.21WAR0.15 to 0.27
6. Sean MaguireQB47 plays · +0.176 pts/play · 172nd of 199 QBs
   0.15WAR0.09 to 0.23
7. Travis RudolphWR48 plays · +0.150 pts/play · 140th of 469 WRs
   0.13WAR0.06 to 0.21
8. Jesus WilsonWR54 plays · +0.090 pts/play · 225th of 469 WRs
   0.09WAR0.02 to 0.16

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Florida State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Florida State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 7 clear-cut ones account for 0.15 of the 0.17 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at GTQ4 4:28 4th & 1 at GT 11, up 6Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.8 pts
2. vs FLAQ4 3:23 4th & 3 at FLA 20, up 2Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
3. at OKSTQ4 14:51 4th & 1 at FSU 38, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
4. vs FLAQ2 0:53 4th & 12 at FSU 33, up 12Went for it; the numbers favored punting−1.9 pts
5. at GTQ3 3:13 4th & 2 at GT 16, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
6. at OKSTQ4 0:00 4th & 9 at OKST 35, up 6Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.6 pts
7. at MIAQ4 7:12 4th & 5 at MIA 36, down 6Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
8. at OKSTQ3 9:35 4th & 3 at FSU 30, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

17th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Florida State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   OKST
2. W

   CIT
3. W

   CLEM
4. W

   NCSU
5. W

   WAKE
6. W

   SYR
7. W

   ND
8. W

   LOU
9. W

   UVA
10. W

    MIA
11. W

    BC
12. W

    FLA
13. W

    GT
14. L

    ORE

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Florida State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+2.26
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock+0.12
• Timeouts−0.10
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−1.34

Game by game

• OKSTW 37-31 at OKST89% → 96%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +22, Clock +1
• CITW 37-12 vs CIT100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +1
• CLEMW 23-17 vs CLEM92% → 86%Before kickoff +42 · On the field −6: Scoreboard +21, Timeouts −12
• NCSUW 56-41 at NCSU94% → 99%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +13, Clock +1
• WAKEW 43-3 vs WAKE99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• SYRW 38-20 at SYR91% → 99%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +17, Clock +1
• NDW 31-27 vs ND83% → 95%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +22
• LOUW 42-31 at LOU77% → 97%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +33, Clock +2
• UVAW 34-20 vs UVA92% → 99%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +13, Timeouts +1
• MIAW 30-26 at MIA60% → 90%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +45, Clock +3
• BCW 20-17 vs BC93% → 89%Before kickoff +43 · On the field −5: Scoreboard +11, Possession & field position +1
• FLAW 24-19 vs FLA77% → 96%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +25, Timeouts +2
• GTW 37-35 at GT67% → 95%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +38, Clock +2
• OREL 20-59 vs ORE31% → 0%Before kickoff −19 · On the field −31: Scoreboard −36, Clock −1

Points of win probability, from Florida State's side.

Closest call

LSU 23-24 FSU (2022) - Florida State dropped to a 4.0% win probability before pulling it out.