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ORE

Oregon 59 at Florida State 20

FSU
2014 · Rose Bowl Game - Semifinal · Jan 1, 2015 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLETDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:40 · Cason Beatty punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Johnathan Loyd at the Oregn 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.5+29.80−29.8−59.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 204Home team on offense−58.3Score differential−46.9Pregame prior−0.2Garbage-time factor−23.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−8.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:36: Karlos Williams 10 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +10.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:54: Royce Freeman 3 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +8.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:07: Travis Rudolph 18 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Roberto Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +15.5 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q3 6:43: Darren Carrington 56 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +12.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:21: Darren Carrington 30 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +11.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:49ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:06FSU 4th & 9 at ORE 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:19FSU 4th & 12 at FSU 13, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:10ORE 4th & 5 at FSU 22, up 5
    Close callWent for it · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    64.6%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:57FSU 4th & 1 at ORE 1, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    32.4%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    27.8%−6.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:12ORE 4th & 6 at FSU 11, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    60.4%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:18FSU 4th & 8 at ORE 8, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−5.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:36FSU 4th & 5 at ORE 30, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    8.9%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:56ORE 4th & 2 at FSU 23, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:13FSU 4th & 8 at FSU 41, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:27FSU 4th & 7 at ORE 42, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:02ORE 4th & 9 at ORE 46, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:40FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 21, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 6:55ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    67.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:18ORE Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:36FSU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:54ORE Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:07FSU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:43ORE Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:21ORE Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:56ORE Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:13ORE Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5669% → 69%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
30.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 18Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+4
30.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Royce Freeman for 4 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
31.2%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Evan BaylisSimilar
Q1 13:49
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
31.3%
Ian Wheeler punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FlaSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 4:3531% → 34%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
31.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 2 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
31.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 1
50
+21
31.9%
Karlos Williams run for 21 yds to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
32.3%
Karlos Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+4
32.6%
Jameis Winston run for 4 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
32.8%
Jameis Winston pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:01
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+14
32.7%
OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (Torrodney Prevot) to the Oregn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
33.1%
Jameis Winston run for no gain to the Oregn 12Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-7
33.6%
Jameis Winston sacked by Torrodney Prevot for a loss of 7 yards to the Oregn 19 Jameis Winston fumbled, forced by Torrodney Prevot, recovered by FlaSt Bobby Hart , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 17
OPP 19
+8
33.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Karlos Williams for 8 yds to the Oregn 11Similar
Q1 9:06
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+28
34.1%
Roberto Aguayo 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 1:5866% → 68%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
34.0%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Evan Baylis for 19 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
33.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Charles Nelson for 3 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+4
33.9%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q1 7:51
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+15
34.1%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Charles Nelson for 15 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
33.8%
Marcus Mariota run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+14
33.9%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 14 yds to the FlaSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
34.0%
Marcus Mariota run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 15, lateral to Charles Nelson for 14 yds to FlaSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.0%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.8%
Royce Freeman 1 Yd Run (Taylor Alie Pass to Christian French for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2633% → 33%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
32.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-3
32.8%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 12
OWN 13
0
32.6%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Ermon LaneSimilar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 12
OWN 13
0
32.5%
Cason Beatty punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:0368% → 67%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
32.4%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 13 yds to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
32.1%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Evan Baylis for 5 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
32.1%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
32.5%
Marcus Mariota run for no gain to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 5
OPP 22
0
33.3%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6DOWNS
13 plays · 76 yds · 4:0833% → 35%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
33.4%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+17
33.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 17 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
34.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
34.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
35.2%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 20 yds to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
35.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 12 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
35.7%
Karlos Williams run for 4 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+6
35.8%
Karlos Williams run for 6 yds to the Oregn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
36.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the Oregn 3Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
36.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the Oregn 1Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
35.5%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tyson Coleman) to the Oregn 1Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
35.5%
Karlos Williams run for no gain to the Oregn 1Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.9%
Jameis Winston run for no gain to the Oregn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7FG
20 plays · 88 yds · 4:4065% → 71%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
34.6%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Dwayne StanfordSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+7
34.7%
Marcus Mariota run for 7 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+6
35.3%
Thomas Tyner run for 6 yds to the Oregn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
34.6%
Thomas Tyner run for 10 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
34.5%
Thomas Tyner run for 4 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+7
34.3%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Evan Baylis for 7 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
34.3%
Marcus Mariota run for 14 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
33.6%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Charles Nelson for 9 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+3
33.3%
Marcus Mariota run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
33.5%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Keanon LoweSimilar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
33.6%
Thomas Tyner run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+5
33.6%
Thomas Tyner run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
33.0%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 8 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 2
OPP 20
0
32.4%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+5
33.0%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
32.4%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
31.5%
Byron Marshall run for no gain to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
32.2%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Evan BaylisSimilar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
28.7%
Aidan Schneider 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8FG
16 plays · 65 yds · 4:4029% → 34%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
29.4%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Nick O'LearySimilar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
29.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+4
29.1%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 4 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
29.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 17 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
31.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 20 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
31.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 8 yds to the Oregn 17Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 2
OPP 17
-7
31.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the Oregn 14 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bobby Hart) to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
31.0%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Karlos WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+16
29.9%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 16 yds to the Oregn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
31.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Josue Matias) to the Oregn 13Similar
Q2 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
0
31.0%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+10
30.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 10 yds to the Oregn 3Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
30.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 8Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
29.9%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Nick O'LearySimilar
Q2 5:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
33.9%
Roberto Aguayo 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:5267% → 77%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
33.5%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 2 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
32.3%
Marcus Mariota run for 12 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-15
30.9%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Keanon Lowe) to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 25
OWN 24
+15
32.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Royce Freeman for 15 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
31.3%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 7 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+21
31.1%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 21 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
29.4%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+23
29.3%
Thomas Tyner run for 23 yds to the FlaSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
28.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 6 yds to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
28.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Byron Marshall for 1 yd to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.2%
Thomas Tyner 1 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 1:2925% → 37%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
25.2%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Karlos Williams for 5 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+24
25.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Karlos Williams for 24 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
26.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Ermon Lane for 17 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
27.6%
OREGON Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Oregn 20Similar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 5
OPP 20
+5
27.6%
Karlos Williams run for 5 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
26.5%
Jameis Winston run for 5 yds to the Oregn 10Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+10
37.3%
Karlos Williams 10 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11INT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:1468% → 69%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.3%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
30.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 10 yds to the Oregn 40 OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dwayne Stanford) to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
30.7%
Marcus Mariota pass intercepted Nate Andrews return for no gain to the FlaSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12MISSED FG
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:1235% → 35%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
35.1%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 7 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+7
35.9%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 7 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
35.0%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+54
34.8%
Roberto Aguayo 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13FUMBLE
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:2234% → 37%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
34.1%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 20 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
35.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+18
34.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 18 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
36.7%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+10
36.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 10 yds to the Oregn 31 Dalvin Cook fumbled, forced by Derrick Malone, recovered by Oregn Derrick MaloneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:2969% → 80%
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
31.4%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+34
31.8%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 34 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-6
28.8%
OREGON Penalty, Illegal Formation (-6 Yards) to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 16
OPP 41
+30
29.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Evan Baylis for 30 yds to the FlaSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
28.1%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 6 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Face Mask (3 yards) (Reggie Northrup) to the FlaSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
20.0%
Royce Freeman 3 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3823% → 39%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
22.6%
Karlos Williams run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
23.5%
Karlos Williams run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
22.8%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Freddie Stevenson for 12 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-11
23.8%
Jameis Winston sacked by Tony Washington for a loss of 11 yards to the FlaSt 36 Jameis Winston fumbled, forced by Tony Washington, recovered by FlaSt Jameis Winston , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 21
OWN 36
0
22.2%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 21
OWN 36
+23
21.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 23 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
24.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 6 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+2
25.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+15
23.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 15 yds to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
38.9%
Travis Rudolph 18 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 1:1268% → 82%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
31.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Darren Carrington for 6 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+8
31.0%
Thomas Tyner run for 8 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
31.0%
Thomas Tyner run for 4 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+7
30.1%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Evan Baylis for 7 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
17.8%
Darren Carrington 56 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:4821% → 20%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
20.7%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 7 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+6
21.0%
Jameis Winston run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
20.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Ermon Lane for 5 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
20.4%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+7
19.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 15 yds Dalvin Cook fumbled, forced by Johnny Ragin III, recovered by Oregn Reggie Daniels , return for 7 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18TD
2 plays · 43 yds · 0:0984% → 95%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
16.3%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Charles Nelson for 13 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
5.1%
Darren Carrington 30 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19FUMBLE TD
11 plays · 35 yds · 2:3410% → 1%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
10.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Karlos Williams for 6 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+1
10.2%
Karlos Williams run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+16
9.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Karlos Williams for 16 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
10.0%
Karlos Williams run for 19 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
10.2%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Ermon LaneSimilar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
10.1%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 5 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
9.9%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q3 1:36
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+58
0.7%
Jameis Winston run for a loss of 12 yards Jameis Winston fumbled, recovered by Oregn Tony Washington, return for 58 yds for TD (Aidan Schneider PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20INT
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:181% → 1%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
0.7%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 16 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.6%
Jameis Winston pass intercepted Erick Dargan return for no gain to the FlaSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:5499% → 99%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
0.8%
Royce Freeman run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+4
0.7%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
0.7%
Marcus Mariota pass incomplete to Byron MarshallSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
0.7%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Evan Baylis for 5 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q4 14:35
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+3
0.7%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q4 13:56
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+23
0.6%
Marcus Mariota 23 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:090% → 0%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
0.3%
Karlos Williams run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+16
0.2%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 16 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
0.2%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 14 yds Jesus Wilson fumbled, forced by Rodney Hardrick, recovered by Oregn Tyson ColemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 2:15100% → 100%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
0.5%
Thomas Tyner run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
0.4%
Thomas Tyner run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+12
0.3%
Thomas Tyner run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
0.3%
Thomas Tyner 21 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:470% → 0%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
0.2%
Mario Pender run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
0.1%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Nick O'LearySimilar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
0.1%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
0.1%
Cason Beatty punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Johnathan Loyd at the Oregn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25FUMBLE
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:52100% → 100%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
0.3%
Kenny Bassett run for 3 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Kenny Bassett run for no gain to the Oregn 25Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+18
0.2%
Kenny Bassett run for 18 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
0.2%
Kenny Bassett run for 4 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-2
0.2%
Jeff Lockie run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 45 Jeff Lockie fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Derrick NnadiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:480% → 0%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
0.1%
Mario Pender run for 3 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
0.1%
Sean Maguire pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
0.1%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Mario PenderSimilar
Q4 5:27
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
0.1%
Cason Beatty punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Johnathan Loyd at the Oregn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 36 yds · 3:13100% → 100%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
0.2%
Kani Benoit run for no gain to the Oregn 10Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+35
0.2%
Kani Benoit run for 35 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
0.1%
Kani Benoit run for 1 yd to the Oregn 46Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+4
0.1%
Kani Benoit run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 5
50
-4
0.1%
Jeff Lockie run for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 46 Jeff Lockie fumbled, recovered by Oregn Jeff LockieSimilar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
0.1%
Ian Wheeler punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
0.1%
Ryan Green run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+1
0.0%
Ryan Green run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
0.0%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Ryan GreenSimilar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
0.0%
Cason Beatty punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Johnathan Loyd at the Oregn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:07
Travis Rudolph 18 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Roberto Aguayo Kick)
+15.5
TD · Q3 6:43
Darren Carrington 56 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick)
-12.3
TD · Q3 4:21
Darren Carrington 30 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick)
-11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com