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FSU

Florida State 30 at Miami 26

MIA
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-1MIA 63.1%Roberto Aguayo 43 Yd Field GoalAWAY 10 - HOME 23 · Q2 8:10
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:10 · Roberto Aguayo 43 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Home team on offense+6.7Pregame prior−6.2Score differential+3.2Garbage-time factor+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:37: Clive Walford 61 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick) — MIA win probability +12.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:19: Karlos Williams 11 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Roberto Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +18.8 pts (now 40%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 11:01: Michael Badgley 46 Yd Field Goal — MIA win probability +9.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:12: Roberto Aguayo 53 Yd Field Goal — FSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:05: Dalvin Cook 26 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +47.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 13:34FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:50FSU 4th & 3 at MIA 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    54.3%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:14FSU 4th & 8 at FSU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:51MIA 4th & 11 at FSU 28, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−4.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:10FSU 4th & 5 at MIA 25, down 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.3%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:48MIA 4th & 1 at midfield, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.9%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:42MIA 4th & 3 at FSU 12, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.4%−0.7
    86% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−8.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:50MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 35, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:39MIA 4th & 7 at FSU 48, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:45FSU 4th & 14 at MIA 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−3.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−11.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:01MIA 4th & 9 at FSU 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−1.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−13.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:12FSU 4th & 5 at MIA 36, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.7%−1.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−4.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:11MIA 4th & 13 at MIA 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−8.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:39MIA 4th & 9 at FSU 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    13.5%−4.0
    28% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−5.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:57MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:27MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    58.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:34FSU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:37MIA Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:19FSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:05FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0259% → 59%
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
40.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Karlos Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
40.7%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 6 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
40.8%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+8
41.0%
Cason Beatty punt for 52 yds , Stacy Coley returns for 8 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2FUMBLE
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
41.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 24 yds Clive Walford fumbled, forced by Jalen Ramsey, recovered by FlaSt Tyler HunterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2159% → 59%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
40.9%
Karlos Williams run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+5
41.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 5 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
41.2%
Jameis Winston pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:50
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
41.4%
Cason Beatty punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Stacy Coley at the MiaFl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 4:3842% → 47%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
41.7%
Duke Johnson run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+7
41.9%
Duke Johnson run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+3
42.0%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
42.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
42.4%
Duke Johnson run for no gain to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+36
42.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 36 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
43.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+4
44.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+27
47.1%
Phillip Dorsett 27 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1654% → 52%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
46.4%
Mario Pender run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
46.7%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Karlos Williams for no gain to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
47.5%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Nick O'LearySimilar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
48.0%
Cason Beatty punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Stacy Coley at the MiaFl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:3748% → 57%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
48.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 22 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
49.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 22 yds to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
50.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
50.2%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+18
49.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 18 yds to the FlaSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
50.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q1 2:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
50.6%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.9%
Duke Johnson 1 Yd Run (Michael Badgley PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7FG
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:1958% → 59%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
57.6%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+1
58.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q1 0:02
3RD & 6
OPP 23
-5
58.7%
Kaaya, Brad pass complete to Coley, Stacy for 6 yards to the FLORIDAST17, PENALTY MIAMIFL illegal formation 5 yards to the FLORIDAST28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 11
OPP 28
0
58.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Duke JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+45
59.3%
Michael Badgley 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:0444% → 48%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
55.8%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
56.3%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+21
56.7%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 21 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
55.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 4 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+44
51.6%
Dalvin Cook 44 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4052% → 65%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
51.9%
Stacy Coley run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
52.9%
Duke Johnson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
52.8%
Duke Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
65.0%
Clive Walford 61 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:2138% → 37%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.6%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
62.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 12 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
61.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+4
61.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+22
63.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Ermon Lane for 22 yds to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
62.2%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
63.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 5 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
64.1%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+43
63.1%
Roberto Aguayo 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11MISSED FG
17 plays · 63 yds · 6:2165% → 71%
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
64.8%
Duke Johnson run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
66.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Duke JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
65.5%
Duke Johnson run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
67.9%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+3
68.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+2
68.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 1
50
+3
65.5%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
68.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
68.0%
Duke Johnson run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+22
67.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 22 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
69.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
70.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+5
70.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 5 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+29
71.4%
Michael Badgley 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12INT
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:0129% → 31%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
71.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 27 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
70.1%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Nick O'LearySimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-5
70.8%
Jameis Winston sacked by Jermaine Grace for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+19
72.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 19 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
68.8%
Jameis Winston pass intercepted Deon Bush return for no gain to the MiaFl 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
72.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:0573% → 75%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Clive WalfordSimilar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
73.5%
Duke Johnson run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
74.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+2
75.4%
Duke Johnson run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
75.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+34
74.5%
Justin Vogel punt for 52 yds , Rashad Greene returns for 34 yds to the MIAMIFL 31 MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MiaFl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:2129% → 30%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
71.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 19 yds to the MiaFl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-4
70.0%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 23 Dalvin Cook fumbled, forced by Raphael Kirby, recovered by MiaFlSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16FUMBLE
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:2577% → 79%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-11
77.1%
Johnson, Duke rush for 5 yards to the MIAMIFL28, PENALTY MIAMIFL illegal block (Isidora, Danny) 11 yards to the MIAMIFL12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 21
OWN 12
+19
77.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 19 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+5
77.6%
Duke Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
78.9%
Duke Johnson run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+6
79.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
80.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
81.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Malcolm LewisSimilar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
80.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
79.4%
Justin Vogel punt for 33 yds , Rashad Greene returns for no gain to the FlaSt 15 Rashad Greene fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Rashad GreeneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 4:0421% → 40%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
79.2%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 8 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+12
78.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 12 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
78.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Mario Pender for 7 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
77.6%
Mario Pender run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
78.0%
Jameis Winston pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+16
78.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 16 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
77.9%
Mario Pender run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+29
78.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 29 yds to the MiaFl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
77.1%
Mario Pender run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
78.4%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Ermon LaneSimilar
Q3 4:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
59.6%
Karlos Williams 11 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:5168% → 71%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.6%
Duke Johnson run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
69.1%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
70.6%
Duke Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+33
70.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Standish Dobard for 33 yds Standish Dobard fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Nate AndrewsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:0536% → 38%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+27
63.7%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 12 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Michael Wyche) to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
60.3%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Ermon LaneSimilar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
60.6%
Kermit Whitfield run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q3 0:48
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+17
60.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 17 yds to the MiaFl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
58.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Freddie Stevenson for 1 yd to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
58.5%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 9
OPP 15
-5
61.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 14
OPP 20
0
64.2%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 14
OPP 20
+37
62.5%
Roberto Aguayo 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:2666% → 80%
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
65.6%
Duke Johnson run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+28
67.6%
Duke Johnson run for 28 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
69.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Joseph YearbySimilar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
69.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+4
70.0%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
71.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Standish DobardSimilar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
71.9%
Duke Johnson run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
70.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+46
80.0%
Michael Badgley 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:1830% → 39%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
69.9%
Karlos Williams run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+16
71.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 16 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
68.3%
Jameis Winston run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+1
67.3%
Karlos Williams run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
67.9%
Karlos Williams run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
68.5%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Nick O'LearySimilar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
68.7%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Ermon Lane for 5 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
69.6%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+53
60.9%
Roberto Aguayo 53 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:5270% → 68%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
69.6%
Duke Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
70.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Jon Feliciano) to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
70.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Malcolm LewisSimilar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+3
69.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 3 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q4 5:11
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
67.9%
Justin Vogel punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FlaSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:5936% → 87%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
64.4%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Nick O'LearySimilar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+17
64.7%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 17 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
60.1%
Winston, Jameis rush for 18 yards to the MIAMIFL27, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding 10 yards to the FLORIDAST45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+14
65.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 14 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+15
60.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 15 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
13.5%
Dalvin Cook 26 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24INT
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:0829% → 21%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
29.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 14 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
31.1%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
30.5%
Brad Kaaya run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+9
30.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 9 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
30.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Joseph YearbySimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+1
27.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
25.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
20.9%
Brad Kaaya pass intercepted Jalen Ramsey return for no gain to the FlaSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
9.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:05
Dalvin Cook 26 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)
-47
TD · Q3 4:19
Karlos Williams 11 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Roberto Aguayo Kick)
-18.8
TD · Q2 11:37
Clive Walford 61 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)
+12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com