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UVA

Virginia 20 at Florida State 34

FSU
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:26: Karlos Williams 3 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:14: Rashad Greene 22 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Roberto Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:43: Jameis Winston 4 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:14: Canaan Severin 23 Yd pass from Greyson Lambert (Ian Frye Kick) — UVA win probability +9.8 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 0:16: Roberto Aguayo 40 Yd Field Goal — FSU win probability +3.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 13:09FSU 4th & 8 at FSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:30UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:37FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:31UVA 4th & 8 at FSU 43, down 8
    Close callPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    10.7%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:04UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 40, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:28UVA 4th & 11 at UVA 35, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:37FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 36, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:35UVA 4th & 9 at FSU 40, down 15
    Close callPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:41FSU 4th & 5 at UVA 25, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.4%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    83.8%−5.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:14UVA 4th & 15 at UVA 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:16FSU 4th & 7 at UVA 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−3.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:18UVA 4th & 16 at UVA 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−1.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:09UVA 4th & 16 at UVA 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−1.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:09FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:50UVA 4th & 1 at FSU 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%−1.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−2.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:47UVA 4th & 7 at FSU 12, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    5.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:15FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:20UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:24UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:26FSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:14FSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:43FSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:14UVA Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:4392% → 92%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.1%
Jameis Winston pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
92.0%
Karlos Williams run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
91.9%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 4 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
91.9%
Karlos Williams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
91.8%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
91.7%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
91.7%
Cason Beatty punt for 41 yds, downed at the Virg 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2FUMBLE
1 play · -3 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
91.7%
Kevin Parks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 23 Kevin Parks fumbled, forced by Mario Edwards Jr., recovered by FlaSt Derrick MitchellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3TD
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:3192% → 92%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
91.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the Virg 22Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+20
91.7%
Jameis Winston run for 20 yds to the Virg 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.9%
Karlos Williams 2 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:358% → 9%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.7%
Kevin Parks run for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-3
91.6%
Kevin Parks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
91.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Mario Edwards Jr.) to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
91.5%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
91.5%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FlaSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5INT
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:5992% → 91%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
91.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 5 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+2
91.5%
Karlos Williams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+18
91.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 18 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
91.4%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
91.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 5 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
91.3%
Jameis Winston pass intercepted Maurice Canady return for no gain to the Virg 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6TD
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:489% → 12%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
91.0%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 7
50
0
90.8%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 7
50
+8
90.9%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Darius Jennings for 8 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
90.7%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Canaan SeverinSimilar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
90.7%
Darius Jennings run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+10
90.6%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 10 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
90.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+6
90.1%
Lambert, Greyson pass incomplete to Swanson, Zachary, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Smith, Terrance) 6 yards to the FLORIDAST18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VIRGINIA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
90.0%
David Watford run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+16
88.3%
Andre Levrone 16 Yd pass from Greyson Lambert (Ian Frye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7INT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:2489% → 89%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.0%
Karlos Williams run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
88.8%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 18 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
89.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
89.0%
Jameis Winston pass intercepted Eli Harold return for no gain to the FlaSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:0713% → 15%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
87.5%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
87.3%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+13
87.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 13 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
86.9%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+15
86.8%
Khalek Shepherd run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
86.5%
Greyson Lambert run for no gain to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
84.7%
Darius Jennings 15 Yd pass from Greyson Lambert (Ian Frye PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:2386% → 85%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
85.3%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Ermon LaneSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
85.0%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q2 14:37
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
84.7%
Cason Beatty punt for 67 yds, downed at the Virg 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
85.1%
Greyson Lambert pass intercepted Terrance Smith return for 3 yds to the Virg 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 14:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.6%
Karlos Williams 3 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · -13 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-13
87.7%
Greyson Lambert run for a loss of 13 yards to the Virg 22 Greyson Lambert fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Eddie GoldmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13TD
1 play · 22 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
90.7%
Rashad Greene 22 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:1410% → 10%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.1%
Kevin Parks run for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
89.9%
Kevin Parks run for 1 yd to the Virg 31Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+24
90.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Darius Jennings for 24 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
89.2%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Kyle DockinsSimilar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
89.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
89.2%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
89.8%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 6:3890% → 93%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
89.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
89.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
89.6%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+15
89.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 15 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
90.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 8 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+8
90.1%
Karlos Williams run for 8 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
90.0%
Karlos Williams run for no gain to the Virg 37Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+7
89.9%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 7 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+5
90.1%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 5 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
90.4%
Karlos Williams run for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 31Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 16
OPP 31
+10
89.9%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 10 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+12
90.0%
Jameis Winston run for 3 yds to the Virg 18 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Holding (DreQuan Hoskey) to the Virg 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
90.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the Virg 3Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
90.3%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 4Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.1%
Jameis Winston 4 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:298% → 7%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Connor Wingo-Reeves for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
92.4%
Greyson Lambert run for 2 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
92.4%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Jack English) to the Virg 27Similar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
92.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Zachary Swanson for 10 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
92.5%
Kevin Parks run for 1 yd to the Virg 38Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+6
92.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 6 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 3
OWN 44
-4
92.0%
Greyson Lambert sacked by Mario Edwards Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 40Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
92.7%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FlaSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:5894% → 94%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
93.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 29 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tre' Jackson) to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 14
OWN 19
+6
93.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:258% → 8%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
92.3%
Kevin Parks run for 11 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
91.9%
Kevin Parks run for no gain to the Virg 36Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-9
92.0%
Greyson Lambert sacked by Jalen Ramsey for a loss of 9 yards to the Virg 27Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 19
OWN 27
+8
92.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kevin Parks for 8 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
92.5%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4193% → 93%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
93.1%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Karlos Williams for 5 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
93.3%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
93.0%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q3 11:37
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
92.7%
Cason Beatty punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Khalek Shepherd at the Virg 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:558% → 8%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
92.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kevin Parks for 12 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
92.0%
Khalek Shepherd run for 2 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+22
92.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 22 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
91.5%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-2
91.6%
Kevin Parks run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+3
92.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kevin Parks for 3 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
92.2%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
93.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 23 Dalvin Cook fumbled, forced by David Dean, recovered by Virg Mike MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22TD
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
83.9%
Canaan Severin 23 Yd pass from Greyson Lambert (Ian Frye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:2088% → 90%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
88.1%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 14 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
88.2%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 7 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+13
88.8%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Ermon Lane for 13 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
89.3%
Karlos Williams run for 11 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
90.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 10 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
90.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Cameron Erving) to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+10
90.2%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 10 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
90.5%
Karlos Williams run for no gain to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
90.5%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+43
90.2%
Roberto Aguayo 43 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5611% → 9%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
89.3%
Khalek Shepherd run for 4 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
89.3%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 6
OWN 38
-9
90.0%
Greyson Lambert sacked by Tyler Hunter for a loss of 9 yards to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 15
OWN 29
+32
91.5%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FLORIDAST 24 VIRGINIA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Wilfred Wahee) to the FlaSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 2:4991% → 95%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
91.2%
Karlos Williams run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+21
91.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Karlos Williams for 21 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
91.7%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 5 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+8
91.7%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 8 yds to the Virg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
91.7%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Eli Harold) to the Virg 21Similar
Q3 0:58
1ST & 5
OPP 21
-2
91.7%
Jameis Winston sacked by Henry Coley for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 23Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
91.9%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Nick O'LearySimilar
Q3 0:21
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
91.6%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q3 0:16
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
95.0%
Roberto Aguayo 40 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 1:517% → 6%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.2%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Zachary Swanson for 8 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
92.3%
Kevin Parks run for 5 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
92.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Eric Smith) to the Virg 28Similar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 20
OWN 28
0
93.2%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Darius JenningsSimilar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 20
OWN 28
+4
93.3%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kevin Parks for 4 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 16
OWN 32
0
93.5%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q4 13:18
4TH & 16
OWN 32
0
93.6%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 40 yds , Rashad Greene returns for no gain to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q4 13:09
4TH & 16
OWN 32
-2
93.6%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 41 yds , Rashad Greene returns for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:4695% → 95%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.4%
Karlos Williams run for no gain to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-9
95.6%
Jameis Winston sacked by Henry Coley for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 19
OWN 16
-5
95.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Ryan Hoefeld) to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 24
OWN 11
+9
95.4%
Karlos Williams run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+7
95.4%
Cason Beatty punt for 45 yds , Khalek Shepherd returns for 7 yds to the Virg 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 28DOWNS
15 plays · 44 yds · 5:157% → 4%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
92.6%
Kevin Parks run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
92.4%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to David WatfordSimilar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+4
92.8%
Kevin Parks run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
92.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 5 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
92.3%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+4
92.9%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 4 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q4 8:50
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+4
95.6%
Kevin Parks run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-9
95.1%
Greyson Lambert sacked by P.J. Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 19
OPP 41
0
95.8%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 19
OPP 41
+26
96.1%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Zachary Swanson for 26 yds to the FlaSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
95.2%
Khalek Shepherd run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 3
OPP 8
-2
95.2%
Khalek Shepherd run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 5
OPP 10
-2
95.9%
David Watford run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q4 5:47
4TH & 7
OPP 12
-2
96.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Darius Jennings for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 29END OF GAME
15 plays · 62 yds · 5:3597% → 99%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
97.2%
Karlos Williams run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+40
97.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Ermon Lane for 40 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
97.8%
Karlos Williams run for 5 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+3
98.1%
Karlos Williams run for 3 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+5
98.4%
Winston, Jameis pass incomplete to Greene, Rashad, PENALTY VIRGINIA pass interference (Harris, Tim) 5 yards to the VIRGINIA30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
98.6%
Karlos Williams run for 1 yd to the Virg 29Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+3
98.5%
Karlos Williams run for 3 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+11
98.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 11 yds to the Virg 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-15
98.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Josue Matias) to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
98.8%
Karlos Williams run for 9 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+4
98.8%
Karlos Williams run for 4 yds to the Virg 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-4
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 21Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 21
-3
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:14
Canaan Severin 23 Yd pass from Greyson Lambert (Ian Frye Kick)
-9.8
TD · Q2 14:26
Karlos Williams 3 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)
+3.5
FG · Q3 0:16
Roberto Aguayo 40 Yd Field Goal
+3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com