Florida State

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1444th
  Defense+0.1260th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense40.7%31st
  Defense39.3%78th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3580th
  Defense+1.3617th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1970th
  Defense+0.0379th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1628th
  Defense+0.3021st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense46.0%29th
  Defense42.8%89th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense29.5%36th
  Defense32.8%35th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3281st
  Defense2.9064th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.7%61st
  Defense17.8%57th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense17.9%23rd
  Defense18.2%78th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Florida State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   ND
2. L
   JXST
3. L
   WAKE
4. L
   LOU
5. W
   SYR
6. W
   UNC
7. W
   MASS
8. L
   CLEM
9. L
   NCSU
10. W
    MIA
11. W
    BC
12. L
    FLA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Florida State.

Players, 2021

1. Jordan TravisQB303 plays · +0.340 pts/play · 36th of 219 QBs
   1.93WAR1.34 to 2.49
2. Jashaun CorbinRB155 plays · +0.189 pts/play · 58th of 387 RBs
   0.55WAR0.39 to 0.73
3. McKenzie MiltonQB134 plays · +0.138 pts/play · 157th of 219 QBs
   0.35WAR0.10 to 0.67
4. Treshaun WardRB93 plays · +0.199 pts/play · 124th of 387 RBs
   0.35WAR0.26 to 0.43
5. Alex MastromannoP59 plays · +0.131 pts/play · 30th of 101 punters
   0.14WAR0.03 to 0.28
6. Lawrance ToafiliRB39 plays · +0.158 pts/play · 278th of 387 RBs
   0.12WAR0.08 to 0.15
7. Andrew ParchmentWR37 plays · +0.166 pts/play · 195th of 474 WRs
   0.11WAR0.08 to 0.15
8. Ontaria WilsonWR30 plays · +0.189 pts/play · 215th of 474 WRs
   0.11WAR0.07 to 0.14

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Florida State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  77077020th of 130Roster talent: 770, 20th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  24124119th of 130Recruiting: 241, 19th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  85%85%45th of 128Returning production: 85%, 45th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +7.6+7.653rd of 130SP+ rating: +7.6, 53rd of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Florida State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 10 clear-cut ones account for 0.32 of the 0.38 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at BCQ4 0:00 4th & 24 at FSU 11, up 3Went for it; the numbers favored punting−12.3 pts
2. at BCQ2 0:00 4th & 21 at FSU 9, up 16Went for it; the numbers favored punting−4.4 pts
3. vs SYRQ3 1:39 4th & 1 at FSU 10, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.7 pts
4. vs NCSUQ4 14:19 4th & 1 at FSU 35, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.7 pts
5. vs JXSTQ4 1:32 4th & 2 at FSU 44, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.6 pts
6. vs SYRQ4 3:17 4th & 2 at FSU 24, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
7. vs LOUQ2 0:00 4th & 8 at FSU 41, down 18Went for it; the numbers favored punting−1.5 pts
8. at UNCQ3 12:55 4th & 1 at FSU 34, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

91st of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Florida State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   ND
2. L

   JXST
3. L

   WAKE
4. L

   LOU
5. W

   SYR
6. W

   UNC
7. W

   MASS
8. L

   CLEM
9. L

   NCSU
10. W

    MIA
11. W

    BC
12. L

    FLA

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Florida State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.06
• Possession & field position+0.12
• Clock+0.20
• Timeouts−0.23
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.35

Game by game

• NDL 38-41 vs ND32% → 29%Before kickoff −18 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −36, Clock +21
• JXSTL 17-20 vs JXST97% → 8%Before kickoff +47 · On the field −89: Scoreboard −44, Clock −3
• WAKEL 14-35 at WAKE37% → 0%Before kickoff −13 · On the field −37: Scoreboard −36, Timeouts −1
• LOUL 23-31 vs LOU53% → 4%Before kickoff +3 · On the field −49: Scoreboard −52, Clock −3
• SYRW 33-30 vs SYR64% → 96%Before kickoff +14 · On the field +32: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts +1
• UNCW 35-25 at UNC13% → 96%Before kickoff −37 · On the field +83: Scoreboard +56, Clock +3
• MASSW 59-3 vs MASS100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +1
• CLEML 20-30 at CLEM27% → 3%Before kickoff −23 · On the field −24: Scoreboard −27, Timeouts −1
• NCSUL 14-28 vs NCSU43% → 1%Before kickoff −7 · On the field −41: Scoreboard −48, Clock −3
• MIAW 31-28 vs MIA40% → 90%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +50: Scoreboard +27, Possession & field position +4
• BCW 26-23 at BC40% → 92%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +52: Scoreboard +54, Clock +3
• FLAL 21-24 at FLA40% → 5%Before kickoff −10 · On the field −35: Scoreboard −32, Timeouts −3

Points of win probability, from Florida State's side.

Closest call

LSU 23-24 FSU (2022) - Florida State dropped to a 4.0% win probability before pulling it out.