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FSU

Florida State 14 at Wake Forest 35

WAKE
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:01 · Alex Mastromanno punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Home team on offense+11.0Score differential+5.2Pregame prior+5.6Garbage-time factor+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:55: Jordan Travis pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 8 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 36%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:52: Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 11 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +7.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:16: Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 65 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +11.0 pts (now 27%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:24: Nick Sciba 22 yd FG GOOD — WAKE win probability +5.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:05: Justice Ellison run for 1 yd for a TD (S. Hartman Run For Two-point Conversion) — WAKE win probability +9.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 7FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:50FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  2. Q2 8:43FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:45WAKE 4th & 20 at FSU 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−2.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:25WAKE 4th & 6 at FSU 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    74.2%−4.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:24WAKE 4th & 4 at FSU 4, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.3%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−5.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:01FSU 4th & 12 at midfield, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:48FSU 4th & 2 at WAKE 11, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%−0.5
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−4.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:52WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 12, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:11WAKE 4th & 1 at FSU 40, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−0.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:33WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 22, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:30WAKE 4th & 1 at FSU 13, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−0.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 4FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:40WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:36WAKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:55FSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:52WAKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:16FSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:05WAKE Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    92.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAKEDrive 1INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:5063% → 63%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 4 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
62.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 7 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
62.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
62.7%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Sidney Williams return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2FUMBLE
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:1538% → 38%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
50
+6
62.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Malik McClain for 6 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+7
62.4%
Jashaun Corbin run for 7 yds to the WFrst 37 Jashaun Corbin fumbled, forced by Luke Masterson, recovered by WFrstSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 0:4063% → 64%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
62.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the WFrst 38Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+13
62.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
63.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 49 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:4037% → 36%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.4%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
63.6%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-3
63.9%
Jordan Travis sacked by Chelen Garnes for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
64.2%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 35 yds , Taylor Morin returns for no gain to the WFrst 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5FUMBLE
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:1765% → 65%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
64.5%
Justice Ellison run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 39Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+15
64.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 15 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
64.9%
Justice Ellison run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
64.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+8
64.9%
Sam Hartman run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
65.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+4
65.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 4 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+13
65.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 13 yds Jaquarii Roberson fumbled, forced by Jammie Robinson, recovered by FlaStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1035% → 34%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
64.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
64.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-3
65.1%
Treshaun Ward run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+3
65.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 44 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 3 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 2:5466% → 72%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
65.5%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 6 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-3
66.1%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 38Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
65.6%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+15
65.2%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
66.4%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 48Similar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+7
66.1%
Sam Hartman run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+24
66.7%
Sam Hartman run for 24 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
66.8%
Christian Turner run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
67.0%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
67.1%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (2 Yards) to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
67.2%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
71.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 7 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2530% → 36%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.3%
Jordan Travis run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
70.3%
Jordan Travis run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
70.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+10
69.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Darion Williamson for 10 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
69.8%
Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+31
70.1%
Treshaun Ward run for 22 yds to the WFrst 17 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (9 Yards) to the WFrst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
64.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 8 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:5367% → 76%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
66.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 6 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
67.5%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
67.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 12 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
68.2%
Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
68.4%
Christian Turner run for no gain to the WFrst 49Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+20
68.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 20 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
69.0%
Sam Hartman sacked by Amari Gainer for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 13
OPP 34
-1
68.7%
Christian Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 14
OPP 35
+21
68.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 7 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (14 Yards) to the FlaSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
69.4%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+4
69.6%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 2
OPP 6
-5
69.1%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
76.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 11 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4726% → 24%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
74.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 6
OWN 19
-2
74.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 8
OWN 17
-2
75.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+17
75.9%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 41 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 17 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:3678% → 76%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-15
78.2%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the WFrst 46Similar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 25
OWN 46
+9
76.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 9 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 16
OPP 45
0
77.4%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 16
OPP 45
-4
77.0%
Sam Hartman sacked by Derrick McLendon II for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q2 6:45
4TH & 20
OPP 49
0
76.4%
Ivan Mora punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Keyshawn Helton at the FlaSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:4023% → 23%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+26
76.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 26 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-9
76.2%
Jordan Travis sacked by Miles Fox for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 19
OWN 34
-14
77.1%
McKenzie Milton pass intercepted Nasir Greer return for 14 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13FG
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:1379% → 84%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
79.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Christian Beal-Smith for 7 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 3
OPP 31
-10
79.2%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+3
79.0%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+10
78.8%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
79.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
79.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for no gain to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
79.9%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
84.2%
Nick Sciba 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
72.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 65 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 2:4574% → 83%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
73.9%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
74.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 1 yd to the WFrst 29Similar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
73.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 8 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+44
75.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 44 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
76.9%
Justice Ellison run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+4
77.5%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
79.1%
Justice Ellison run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
79.1%
Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
78.0%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donald StewartSimilar
Q2 0:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
83.2%
Nick Sciba 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16INT
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:0919% → 21%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
80.6%
Jordan Travis run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
80.3%
Jordan Travis run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
78.9%
Jordan Travis pass intercepted Caelen Carson return for no gain to the WFrst 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:4921% → 18%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
79.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+10
78.7%
Treshaun Ward run for 10 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
78.6%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+4
78.7%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 2
OPP 40
-10
78.6%
Jordan Travis sacked by Jacorey Johns for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 12
50
0
82.1%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 4:4584% → 95%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
83.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 13 yds to the WFrst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
84.1%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 14 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
83.4%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+4
85.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 4 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+4
84.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 4 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+5
85.7%
Hartman, Sam pass complete to Turner, Christian for loss of 5 yards to the WAKEFOREST48, PENALTY FLORIDAST substitution infraction 5 yards to the FLORIDAST47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
85.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+6
85.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 6 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
86.1%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+10
86.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 10 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
86.3%
Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+16
86.5%
Justice Ellison run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the FlaSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
86.5%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
86.5%
Justice Ellison run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.4%
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd for a TD (S. Hartman Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:025% → 4%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
94.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 15 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
94.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 20 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
94.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+19
95.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 19 yds to the WFrst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
94.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 7 yds to the WFrst 12Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+1
94.7%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the WFrst 11Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 2
OPP 11
0
95.8%
Jashaun Corbin run for no gain to the WFrst 11Similar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 2
OPP 11
-2
96.0%
McKenzie Milton run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3897% → 97%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
96.5%
Christian Turner run for no gain to the WFrst 13Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+4
96.5%
Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 5
OWN 17
-5
96.8%
Sam Hartman sacked by Derrick McLendon II for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 12Similar
Q3 1:52
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
97.2%
Ivan Mora punt for 57 yds, downed at the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21FUMBLE
11 plays · 68 yds · 4:053% → 2%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
96.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+13
97.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 13 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
97.1%
Jashaun Corbin run for 12 yds to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
97.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+10
97.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 10 yds to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
97.6%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the WFrst 30Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+12
97.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 12 yds to the WFrst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
97.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Camren McDonald for 8 yds to the WFrst 10Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 2
OPP 10
-2
98.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Camren McDonald for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 12Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+11
98.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 11 yds to the WFrst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.0%
McKenzie Milton run for no gain McKenzie Milton fumbled, recovered by WFrstSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 4:1998% → 99%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
98.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 14 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
98.4%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
98.5%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 7 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+10
98.6%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
98.7%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
98.7%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+2
98.8%
Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 1
OPP 40
-1
98.7%
Justice Ellison run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
98.8%
McKenzie Milton pass intercepted Traveon Redd return for no gain to the WFrst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:2299% → 99%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
98.8%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the WFrst 16Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-4
98.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 6 yds to the WFrst 22 WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WFrst 12Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+5
98.9%
Christian Turner run for 5 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+5
99.1%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 5 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q4 5:33
4TH & 3
OWN 22
-4
99.2%
Ivan Mora punt for 39 yds , Keyshawn Helton returns for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.3%
McKenzie Milton run for no gain to the FlaSt 35 McKenzie Milton fumbled, recovered by WFrstSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
9 plays · 21 yds · 4:5999% → 100%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.4%
Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+10
99.4%
Christian Turner run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
99.5%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+3
99.5%
Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+4
99.6%
Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+3
99.5%
Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-2
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:16
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 65 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
-11
TD · Q3 7:05
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd for a TD (S. Hartman Run For Two-point Conversion)
+9
TD · Q2 10:52
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 11 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com